978
FXUS62 KMFL 071117
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
617 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - Best chances for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this
   afternoon, then very low chances for the rest of the week.

 - Cooler and drier conditions early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

NBM and ensembles show a fairly active weather spreading across the
SE CONUS as a deep trough/frontal complex push E/SE today.
Meanwhile, a mid-level trough will migrate eastward across Florida,
while the sfc ridge over the area is being pushed further eastward
by the frontal system to the north. This will veer low-lvl winds
across SoFlo to a more southerly flow and bring moisture advection
throughout the day.

Model soundings push PWATs to near 2 inches this afternoon, while
the influence of the weak trough aloft might provide enough lifting
to support a few strong thunderstorms, despite of rather modest CAPE
values. Onshore showers are possible during the morning hours,
mainly around east coast metro areas. POPs remain in the 30-40
percent range, so, even with the increasing moisture, a wide-spread
rainy day is not expected.

For Saturday, ridging over the Atlantic will again expand into the
area and relax pressure gradients across SoFlo. Drier air filters
into the area, while winds become generally light at the sfc.
Meanwhile, zonal flow establishes aloft and PWATs drop to near one
inch. This will drop POPs into single digits with benign weather
prevailing.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s, and upper 80s to around 90 on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Models depict drier air aloft lingering over the region on Sunday,
with mainly light SSW winds. Latest NBM and global solutions have
dropped POPs even further with basically single digits in the
forecast each day.

Model consensus has improved a little regarding a dry frontal
boundary moving across the state early next week. And regardless
of the final outcome of the complex synoptic scenario for the E
CONUS, there is no significant impact weather-wise associated
with this FROPA, except for lowering temperatures a bit.

Coldest temps seem to arrive Monday night and through Tuesday with
the persisting northerly flow. Overnight lows may drop into the low-
mid 40s around the Lake region, and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
Afternoon highs Tuesday afternoon should remain in the mid-upper 60s
around the Lake region and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. The air
mass gradually moderates through the end of the work week with
afternoon highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. This
timing is highly dependent on how the overall synoptic scenario
evolves, so some adjustments to the forecast time line might be
required based on upcoming model runs.

All in all, the weather pattern early next week should offer the
first bonafide taste of the upcoming winter season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Light and variable winds will shift to a SE flow in the 5-10 kt
range during the early afternoon hours. Only exception will be a
westerly Gulf breeze at APF after 18Z. Mid and upper deck ceilings
expected to persist through the TAF period, but generally VFR
should prevail outside of any ISO/SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

East-south winds around 5-10 knots continue today, then gradually
shifting southerly late this weekend ahead of an approaching
front. Hazardous marine conditions are expected to quickly develop
in the wake of the frontal passage early next week over most of
South Florida`s coastal waters. High-end Advisory conditions are
possible as early as Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            85  72  87  74 /  30  20  10   0
West Kendall     86  69  88  70 /  30  20  10   0
Opa-Locka        86  72  88  73 /  30  20  10   0
Homestead        85  71  86  72 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  84  72  86  73 /  30  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  85  72  87  73 /  30  20  10   0
Pembroke Pines   88  72  89  74 /  30  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  84  71  87  72 /  40  20  10   0
Boca Raton       86  71  88  72 /  30  20   0   0
Naples           84  71  86  71 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi