Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
866 FXUS62 KMFL 011101 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 700 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Quiet and comfortable weather expected today. - Slight chances for a few rain showers return on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Another tranquil day is expected across South Florida today as the region sits between a ridge over the Caribbean and an amplifying trough in the central U.S. Thus, expecting dry conditions to remain ongoing for today with light winds and a lot of sunshine. Heading into the second half of the weekend, the trough in the central U.S. will continue to amplify as a strong meridional jet streak sits just upstream from the trough and on the eastern side of a strong ridge in the southwest U.S. As this trough strengthens and advects southeastward, it will bring potential for some scattered rain showers on Sunday, although QPF will be low since the strongest vorticity from the trough is expected to be in the northern Florida/southern Georgia region. Nevertheless, there will still be enough moisture advection to produce some isolated to scattered light rain showers on Sunday which has led to introducing some slight chance PoPs (15-20%) across the region on Sunday. High temperatures for the weekend are expected to rebound slightly with temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s today but rising to the low to mid 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the upper 50s west of Lake O to the mid and upper 60s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Latest guidance and ensembles are starting to converge more nicely on the situation regarding the next frontal system approaching the southeastern states. The overall consensus is that the trough and associated frontal boundary will be more progressive and continue to advect across the GA/AL and Carolinas region as well as northern Florida while undergoing cyclogenesis. The surface low from this system is expected to form offshore with the mid-level low reaching its greatest intensity in the area of the GA/SC area on Monday and then shifting offshore as it progresses into the western Atlantic later on Monday into Tuesday. This more progressive setup plus the strongest energy being located off to the north in northern Florida and GA/SC would lead to a drier scenario for South Florida as moisture advection will be maximized offshore and the strongest lift will also be north of the area. The greatest chances for showers at this point in time will be early Monday morning ahead of the incoming cold front associated with the aforementioned trough. Beyond that, dry weather conditions are expected to dominate the rest of the long term period. There is potential for a backdoor cold front to bring a few light showers back to the area in the mid to late week time period, but much uncertainty exists at this time and chances are low regardless. High temperatures each day through the long term period are expected in the low to mid 80s, potentially reaching the upper 80s towards the end of next week for portions of the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Mainly VFR conditions through the 12Z period. Light and variable winds this morning becoming NE 5-10 kts this afternoon, with a NW Gulf breeze at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 Mostly benign conditions are expected across the local waters for the weekend. A gentle breeze is expected across the local waters today, which will increase to a slightly moderate breeze on Sunday out of the northeast. Seas will be 2-3 feet or less through the weekend and into the early portion of next week. Slight chances for rain return on Sunday and early next week as well. && .BEACHES... Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Palm beaches for the next few days due to lingering swell while the rest of the South Florida beaches will be at a low risk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 69 84 70 / 0 10 20 20 West Kendall 81 66 85 67 / 10 10 20 20 Opa-Locka 81 68 85 70 / 0 10 20 20 Homestead 80 69 83 70 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 69 83 70 / 0 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 69 83 70 / 0 0 20 20 Pembroke Pines 83 68 86 70 / 0 0 20 20 West Palm Beach 80 67 83 68 / 0 0 20 20 Boca Raton 81 68 84 69 / 0 0 20 20 Naples 80 64 83 67 / 0 0 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF