943
FXUS62 KMFL 130536
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1236 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

  - Temperatures will gradually continue to moderate through the
    rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

  - Dry conditions will remain in place across the region through
    the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mid level zonal flow will start to gradually give way to weak mid
level troughing over the region today and Friday. The mid level
trough will be amplifying during this time frame, however, since
the trough axis will be offshore in the western Atlantic, this
will shift the mid level flow to a northwesterly direction. At the
surface, a strong and large area of high pressure will remain
parked over the Southeastern portion of the country heading into
Friday. The northwesterly wind flow aloft combined with strong
surface high pressure will allow for the dry air mass to remain in
place through the rest of the week. The latest global and
ensemble guidance reflects this nicely as PWAT values generally
hover between 0.3 inches west of Lake Okeechobee to 0.8 inches
further to the south today. Some slow lower level moisture
advection will take place on Friday, however, it will still remain
too dry over all to support any shower activity as PWAT values
will range between 0.7 and 0.9 inches on Friday afternoon.

Northeasterly wind flow will remain in place today and Friday which
will support the continuation of the moderating trend in high
temperatures during this time frame. High temperatures today will
generally rise into the upper 70s across most areas while highs
on Friday rise into the upper 70s across the Lake region to the
lower 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest global and ensemble
model suite remains in a bit of disagreement in regards to a
potential mid level shortwave impulse pushing close to, if not
over the region on Saturday. The ECMWF guidance suite is more
pronounced with a stronger and faster shortwave pushing through
South Florida while the GFS guidance suite is slower and more
progressive with it remaining offshore. At the surface, this will
create the possibility of a weak backdoor frontal boundary passing
through the region sometime on Saturday. These two features will
not have much in the way of an impact on the sensible weather as
the dry air mass already in place will hold strong. A brief
passing shower or two cannot be ruled out on Saturday, however,
that will be the exception as most areas will remain dry. As this
front stalls out to the south, high pressure behind the very weak
frontal boundary will center over the Florida Peninsula later on
Saturday before starting to shift into the western Atlantic on
Sunday. This will allow for the mainly dry conditions to continue
through the rest of the weekend. Winds will become more easterly
on Saturday, before becoming rather light and sea breeze driven on
Sunday. This will allow for the warming trend to continue into
the weekend as highs rise into the lower 80s each day, however,
there could be some locations across the interior that rise into
the mid 80s on Sunday.

Moving into early next week, the mid level pattern looks to remain
zonal through Monday, however, a strengthening mid level ridge
centered over the Southwest Gulf may try push eastward towards South
Florida heading into Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida during
this time frame bringing mainly dry conditions to the region. With
lower level moisture advection continuing and PWATs rising, the
only exception to this will be the possibility of a brief,
isolated shower or two along the breeze from time to time. High
temperatures early next week will remain in the lower to mid 80s
on Monday, however, they may rise into the mid to upper 80s on
Tuesday across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds overnight will increase out of the NE after 15z
and will remain around 10 kts through the afternoon hours. At
KAPF, winds may become more northerly late in afternoon as a Gulf
breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

A moderate northeasterly breeze will continue across most of the
local waters through the rest of the week. These winds will slowly
begin to subside during the first half of the weekend as they shift
and become more easterly. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
generally range from 2-4 feet through the rest of the week and into
the first half of the weekend while seas across the Gulf generally
range from 1-3 feet during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the
Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the week as onshore
flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  64  80  67 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     79  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        79  63  81  66 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        77  63  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  77  64  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  77  64  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   80  64  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  77  63  80  67 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       79  64  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           79  57  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC