Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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164
FXUS62 KMFL 181729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
129 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A continuation of mostly dry weather will be experienced across
South Florida today with the exception of a few quick moving
isolated showers across the eastern half of the South Florida. 05z
Mesoanalysis, ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports, and
tonight`s 00z MFL upper air sounding all depict an atmospheric
profile that is characteristic of mid-level ridging directly
overhead with a stout subsidence inversion at 850mb. The 1.05 inch
precipitable water value observed on the 00z MFL sounding remains
below the 10% percentile of historical precipitable water for this
time of year. The plethora of mid-level dry air remains overtop a
shallow layer of low-level surface moisture that may still produce a
few vertically-capped quick moving showers along the east coast from
time to time today. The breeze will continue across the region today
courtesy of expansive surface high pressure gradually pushing
eastward into the western Atlantic waters, flow will veer to a more
purely easterly direction accordingly. Nocturnal stratification is
in full swing early this morning which has resulted in a decoupling
of surface winds across most of South Florida with the exception of
the immediate coastline. The enhancement of onshore winds later this
morning into the afternoon hours will create a notable temperature
gradient across the region once again this afternoon with forecasted
high temperatures in the low to middle 80s across the eastern half
of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales
potentially reaching 90F) across the southwestern half of the region.

The mid-level ridging currently situated across South Florida and
our local waters will continue to decrease in strength with mid-
level flow becoming more zonal in nature later today into tonight. A
long-wave trough currently across the central United States will
continue to amplify as it pivots eastward into the Great Lakes
region tonight. A sprawling frontal boundary connected to distant
surface low pressure across the Great Lakes region will sweep
eastwards across the southeastern United States (and north and
central Florida) during the day on Sunday. Now this is when the
local forecast gets slightly more interesting. While the best
dynamics are still forecast to remain well to the north of the
region, the GFS/European as well as some mesoscale models now show a
mid-level shortwave propagating along at the base of the trough
across Central Florida during the second half of Sunday into mid
Monday morning.

The combination of mid-level vorticity and a plume of deeper
precipitable water values (2.0 to 2.2 inches) lifting northwards
into southeastern Florida may result in higher than previous thought
rain chances during the day on Sunday for the eastern half of the
region. Uncertainty remains regarding just how much moisture and
instability will materialize as the exact phasing of the short-wave
and frontal boundary with diurnal heating remains to be seen. That
being said, went ahead and upped rain chances on Sunday to the 20-
40% across the eastern half of the region. As winds lessen and veer
more southeasterly, temperatures will trend up during the afternoon
hours. Forecasted highs will range from the middle to upper 80s
along both coasts to temperatures near 90 across inland southwestern
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

As the mid-level trough lifts north across the northeastern United
States on Monday, the distant surface low attached to the boundary
will lose synoptic forcing. This will result in the previously
mentioned frontal boundary stalling out just to the north of South
Florida. With our region remaining to the south of the boundary in
the warm sector, a residual plume of moisture will remain across the
region which may once again allow for a few afternoon showers and
isolated storms. The departing mid-level shortwave may provide a
second boost in instability during this time frame as 500mb
temperatures remain in the -8C to -9C range. With ample sunshine and
light winds expected for most of the day, temperatures will remain
slightly above average across the region with forecasted highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.

The subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the
eastern United States through mid-weel as additional lobes of mid-
level vorticity amplify and advect eastward across the Great Lakes.
Associated surface lows will also advect from west to east across
the Great Lakes dragging sprawling frontal boundaries across most of
the eastern half of the country. Temperatures will remain slightly
above average for this time of year during this time frame with
forecasted afternoon high temperatures each day during the middle to
late park of the week remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period, with breezy easterly
winds this afternoon. Winds will relax overnight, but remain
easterly-southeasterly. They will further veer out of the
southeast tomorrow, and there will be a slight chance of showers
along the East Coast in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

East-northeasterly to easterly surface winds will remain fresh
across our local waters today and tonight before lessening during
the second half of the weekend and veering more southeasterly in
direction. Periods of SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions
will continue into early Sunday morning across all South Florida
waters with the exception of Lake Okeechobee. Seas will remain in
the 3-5 feet range across the Atlantic waters today with seas in the
2-3 range across our local Gulf waters. The arrival of more
northeasterly swell on Sunday may increase wave heights slightly
across the northern Atlantic waters into the 4-6 feet range. The
latest forecast now shows the potential of a few showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm or two across the local waters on Sunday.
If thunderstorm activity does indeed develop over the waters,
erratic wind shifts and locally gusty winds could occur near and
around any storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue across all east coast
beaches of South Florida today. With breezy onshore winds and a
northeasterly swell arriving along our coast, the high risk of rip
currents for the east coast of South Florida will continue through
at least Sunday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar
cycle, enhancing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will result
in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2
hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade,
Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  86  75  87 /   0  40  20  30
West Kendall     74  86  74  87 /   0  50  20  30
Opa-Locka        74  87  75  87 /   0  40  20  30
Homestead        75  86  74  86 /  10  50  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  74  86  75  86 /   0  30  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  86  75  87 /   0  30  20  20
Pembroke Pines   75  89  75  89 /   0  40  20  30
West Palm Beach  74  87  74  87 /   0  20  20  20
Boca Raton       74  87  74  87 /   0  30  20  20
Naples           71  89  74  89 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...99