143
FXUS62 KMHX 090830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift NE away from the area with high pressure
building into the area through tonight. High pressure moves
offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast moving front that will push
across the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in
Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of
another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Key messages...

 - Patchy black ice possible early this morning across the
   coastal plain.

 - Cool and mainly dry today.

Low pressure continues to push away from the area early this
morning and precip has ended for the most part, although KMHX
radar continues to show a few light returns across ENC. Low
stratus persists across ENC with temps around 30 across the
western coastal plain to lower 40s across the OBX. CAA continues
to bring breezy north winds and will see temps drop into the mid
20s across inland areas to 30s coast by daybreak. Below freezing
temps will bring a concern for black ice across areas where
moisture lingers on roadways through the morning commute. Areas
most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces such as
bridges and overpasses.

High pressure builds into the area today bringing decreasing
winds and clearing skies through early afternoon. Generally dry
conditions today although several HighRes models show weak low
level convergence along and just off the OBX today with a few
light showers persisting, mainly through the morning hours with
convergence weakening this afternoon. A weak shortwave
approaches this afternoon bringing increasing high clouds. Temps
will be around 15 degrees below normal today with highs in the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...High clouds clear mid to late evening as
a weak shortwave pushes east of the area. Sfc high pressure
centered across the area this evening will push swd after
midnight as another shortwave and attendant front/trough
approaches the area. Light/calm winds with clear skies overnight
will bring good radiational cooling conditions and expect lows
in the mid 20s inland to 30s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Key messages...

 - Gusty winds and warmer Wednesday ahead of a dry frontal
   boundary

 - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on
   Sunday

Wednesday and Wednesday night...A robust northern stream
shortwave approaches the East Coast Wednesday with the attendant
surface low pushing across the Great Lakes and trailing cold
front pushing across the region Wednesday night. Will see
increasing mid and high clouds but moisture is quite limited
with this system and not expecting any precip. Tightening
pressure gradients ahead of the front will bring SW winds with
gusts to around 25-35 mph. SW winds will also bring a nice warm
up with high expected in the mid to upper 50s. The front pushes
through Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and lows expected
in the mid 30s inland to around 40 coast.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure builds in from the west
Thursday and Friday bringing dry conditions and mainly sunny
skies, although dampening shortwave may bring increasing high
clouds on Friday. Below normal temps continue with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s and low Thursday night in the mid 20s
inland to 30s coast.

Saturday through Monday...09/00z guidance has yet another
robust northern stream shortwave approaching the area Saturday
and pushing across the area Sunday with a sfc low refection
lifting across VA and the attendant cold front pushing across
ENC Sunday night. Moisture appears limited with this system with
best forcing focused north of the area and don`t expect much
precip with this system at this time. Warmer temps Saturday and
Sunday ahead of the front with highs in the 50s to around 60
and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Arctic high pressure
builds in from the north behind the front with much colder air
building back into the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- MVFR/IFR ceilings will linger through most of tonight, with
  conditions gradually improving to VFR by Tuesday morning

Widespread MVFR ceilings remain entrenched across much of ENC,
with some sites still noting IFR ceilings (including EWN).
Ceilings will continue to linger between 900-1500 ft through the
next few hours before ceilings start to erode due to the
combination of drier low-level air working its way in and
subsidence aloft. VFR conditions will then return to ENC from
northwest to southeast through this morning before persisting
through the end of the period. Winds will calm through the
overnight hours, becoming light and variable tomorrow. Skies
will remain mostly clear Tuesday except for some high clouds
building in later in the day.

Outlook: VFR conditions largely persist until this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Winds and seas gradually diminish through tonight.

 - Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night with
   Small Craft Advisories expected most waters and Gales near
   the Gulf Stream.

Today and Tonight...Winds and seas gradually diminish across the
waters through tonight as high pressure builds across the area.
Gales near the Gulf Stream will end shortly. Winds expected to
drop below SCA criteria by mid morning, however elevated seas
will keep the SCA continuing through the evening for the
coastal waters, and into Wednesday for the central waters.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...SW increase quickly on Wednesday
ahead of a frontal system with SCA conditions developing across
most of the waters and Gales possible near the Gulf Stream,
especially in gusts. Have issued a Gale Watch for late Wednesday
and Wednesday night for the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet. The front will push across the waters Wednesday night
with winds becoming NW and gradually diminishing late.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds across the
waters Thursday and Friday, then slides off the coast Saturday.
Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday
afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing into
Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SK