758
FXUS62 KMHX 040800
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Carolinas through Wednesday.
Dry cold front crosses late Wed night/early Thu with high
pressure building back in to round out the week. Another cold
front moves through this weekend with a slight chance for
precip. Much stronger arctic front moves through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Dry and seasonably mild today as mid- level
flow becomes zonal and expansive surface high pressure settles
over much of the southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly winds will
gradually ease through the day. TD`s plummet through the mid 30s
this afternoon setting the stage for chilly temps by sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Main concern is some frost development
overnight. Sfc high ridges into ENC bringing calm winds and skc
skies. Center of the ridge axis will be acrs swrn counties. With
the aforementioned low TD`s today, exceptional rad cooling
expected overnight. Introduced patchy/areas of frost to the swrn
zones, including areas adjacent to Hofmann and Croatan forest.
Lows should bottom out in the mid 30s here, with upper 30s for
other areas of ENC, and 40s on the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Wed through Fri...Overall a mild and dry pattern. Dry cool
front moves through late Wed night into early Thu only bringing
a wind shift from sw to nwrly. Highs generally 65 to 70 each
day, near climo for first week of Nov. Lows will be in the 40s.

Sat through Sun...Next cold front will move through this
weekend, though appears to be fairly moisture starved, and will
go no higher than 20% pops attm. Have introduced slgt chc
thunder, as some 04/00Z guidance has instability present with
this system. Not much of a cooldown behind the fropa as flow
will cont zonal, which means seasonable temps cont with highs
around 70 for most, and lows in the 50s Sat night, and 40s Sun
night.

Monday...Much stronger reinforcing cold front set to move
through by early in the week, bringing first arctic blast of the
season, with highs expected only in the 50s and lows 30-35, and
the possibility for the first freeze of the season for parts of
ENC, most likely interior zones.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 11:50 PM Monday...VFR SKC conditions expected through the
period. Light NW-N winds should keep us mixed enough overnight
to preclude any fog development.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...Generally VFR conditions are expected through
Friday with high pressure over the area. Winds could gust 25-30
mph Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise good flying conditions
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tue...CAA surge not quite as strong as prv fcst, and
have cancelled all sounds except Pamlico early, with Pamlico now
ending at 12Z, with remaining coastal waters ending during the
day today. High pres quickly builds, leading to rapidly
diminishing winds through the day, becoming light tonight.

LONG TERM /Wed through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Winds will come around to the SW by Wednesday
morning, and then strengthen to 15-25 kts by the afternoon.
Winds will peak at 20-30 kts ahead of a cold front Wednesday
night, and then switch to the NNW Thursday at 15-25 kts. Winds
weaken Thursday night and become easterly by Friday morning at
5-15 kts. Winds switch yet again to srly on Sat but appear to
remain below SCA criteria, with speeds of 10-20 kt.

Seas at 5-7 ft attm will subside to 3-5 ft by later today. 2-4
ft seas expected tonight, with an increase to 5-7 ft expected
Wednesday night. Waves drop down to mostly 2-5 ft Thursday into
weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...TL