


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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526 FXUS62 KMHX 170644 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 244 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually sink S down the East Coast and slowly slide offshore starting tonight. The next cold front crosses the area late this weekend into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. Behind this front mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 0215 Friday...Decoupled winds inland and crystal clear skies have led to strong RadCooling. KDPL has already slipped into the upper 30s, so have adjusted MinTs down a few more degrees. Dry conditions will preclude any threat of fog development overnight. Conditions will be chilly to start the day, with temperatures expected to be hovering in the low-to-mid 40s around 8 AM. A cool and dry airmass will remain in place, allowing temperatures to climb only to the mid 60s under sunny skies. Breezy northerly winds will continue, but gradually relax through the day as center of the high sinks Sward into the Carolinas. Upper level cloud coverage increases from SW to NE around sunset. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0220 Friday...Upper low departs further out to sea, allowing eroding ridge to drift Eward over the FA ahead of the next trough aloft to arrive latter half of this weekend. At the SFC, high pressure center slowly drifts S to be almost directly over Wilmington. Temps will quickly fall through the first half of the night, though the upper level clouds will dampen this cooling, making it not strong as Thurs night. Winds through much of the column back to become more Werly and eventually SWerly by the early morning, though SFC is expected to remain decoupled until sunrise. MinTs a few degrees warmer than Thurs night/Fri morning, low to mid40s inland, mid to upper 50s beaches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri... Key Messages... - High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend with above normal temps returning. - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through Monday morning as a cold front moves through - Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday allowing heights to build, and conditions will rebound to near normal. High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday morning as a quick moving and likely moisture-starved front moves across the Southeast. Behind this front, mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/... As of 0130 Friday...Very benign flying conditions over the next 24 hours as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends Sward across the Carolinas under amplified mid- level ridging. Airmass is very dry at almost all levels and skies will remain clear tonight. Thus, despite dew point depressions cratering towards zero inland no fog is expected tonight. With that said, would not be shocked to see the usual suspects where moisture pools and sensors are close to warmer waters like EWN and PGV to report decreased VIS due to fog. Have included 6sm MIFG to show potential for the ditch fog development in the early morning hours, but can not justify any flight cat changes despite what obs may say. OBX terminals will be breezier with pinched pressure gradient keeping north winds at 15-20 kt. VFR flight cats through the day today, although winds will begin weakening as high centers itself overhead. Gustier conditions most likely closer to sounds and seas with gusts 15-20 kt. Uptick in high clouds this evening as moisture is pulled Nward ahead of a large and complex mid- level low over the WCONUS. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday morning, and there could be some brief flying restrictions as a result. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/... As of 0240 Friday...Steady Nerly breeze persists across area waters with winds 10-15G20-25kt inside, 15-20G25-30kt outside. SCAs remain in place for all waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse, and Bay Rivers. Winds relax through the day as SFC high settles overhead, allowing SCAs to begin stepping down starting this morning. Seas 6-9ft across the coastal waters @ 9-10sec Cape Hatt S, 7-8sec N. South of Lookout, nearshore waters remain somewhat sheltered from northerly winds, with waves of 3-5 feet. Seas gradually lay down as winds relax, but lingering 6-footers will lead to SCAs persisting until just after midnight tonight for the Nern coastal waters. Have ended extending central waters SCA into early next week due to 6+ft seas remaining in the forecast over outer waters. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri... Key Messages - Elevated seas remain across the coastal waters on Saturday due to an increase in long period swell - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front Winds weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will eventually come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of the W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday. Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain. Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North Atlantic. Seas will likely increase to 5-7 ft for much of the marine waters. By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday, and 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Fri...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue through late today keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in the forecast. Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX