439
FXUS62 KMHX 011348
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
948 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are expected to
remain offshore, but will continue to bring coastal impacts to
the area through late week due to their respective swells.
Strong high pressure will build in from the north into the
weekend bringing with it a prolonged period of strong NE winds
and cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 9:40 AM Wednesday...Latest radar imagery continues to show
some light returns across our southern zones. PoPs have been
increased in this area for the next couple of hours to match
latest obs and hi-res guidance.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Wed...

Key Messages:

- Gusty NE winds will continue today
- Coastal impacts will continue (see coastal flood section below
  for details)

Drier and cooler air will continue to filter into the area
today, with mostly cloudy skies becoming partly cloudy by this
afternoon and dewpoints falling into the 50s for much of the
area. Subsidence should keep the area mostly dry later this
morning and through the day. The gradient will remain tightened
between the high to the north and both Hurricanes well offshore.
This will keep NE winds breezy to strong. Wind Advisory remains
in effect for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret through
this evening with gusts up to 45 mph, elsewhere gusts 25-35 mph.
Clouds and NE flow will keep temps below normal with highs in
the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Wed...

Key Messages:

- NE winds gradually diminishing

High pressure will continue to build in from the north and
gradient will gradually weaken across the area. Cooler and drier
air will continue to filter in with PWATs falling below 1".
Expect low temps to fall into the mid 50s inland and low/mid 60s
along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong high pressure building in from the north will lead to
   a prolonged period of gusty NE winds this week.

Sfc high pressure will build in from the north while upper ridging
builds across the Eastern CONUS through the long term.

NE winds continue to weaken Thursday through the end of the week,
then veer to easterly as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast over the weekend.

Generally dry weather is expected for most area through the long
term although a coastal trough offshore may produce periods of
showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show
some of these showers working their way toward the coast, especially
over weekend into next week with easterly flow developing as the
highs moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the work week
with highs in the mid 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the
weekend and early next week with highs around 80/lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Ovc-bkn mid and high clouds continue across the area
early this morning. Expect cloud cover to become more sct by
late morning and afternoon with diurnal cu developing. NE wind
gusts 20-30 kt today, which could lead to crosswind impacts on
EWN runway.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the north. NE
winds will gust around 20 kt Thursday afternoon, then will be
less than 15 kt Friday into the weekend. Cannot rule out patchy
late night fog toward the end of the week when winds will be
weaker and low levels decouple overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Wed...

Key Messages:

 - Treacherous marine conditions through the period

Latest obs show NE winds 20-30 kt gusting 25-40 kt and seas 10-14
ft seas at 12-14 seconds. With the pressure gradient tightening
between high pressure building from the north and offshore
Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto, conditions will remain
dangerous today and tonight. NE winds will peak today with 35-40
kt gusts expected across most of the waters (Gale Warnings are
in effect for all coastal waters and sounds with SCAs for the
inland rivers). Seas will peak at 12-16 ft at 13-16 sec today.
NE winds will diminish to 20-25 kt late tonight with seas
subsiding to 5-10 ft south of Lookout and 8-14 ft north of
Lookout.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...

Key Message

 - Dangerous marine conditions will continue late this week as large
   swells from two tropical cyclones continuing to impact the waters.

High pressure building in from the north will bring NE winds around
20-30 kt on Thursday diminishing to around 10-20 kt on Friday. The
high migrates offshore over the weekend with winds becoming
easterly around 15 kt or less.

Seas around 8-14 ft on Thursday will slowly subside through the long
term as long period, however seas as high as 6-7 ft expected to keep
SCA conditions across the coastal waters through the rest of the
long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 220 AM Wed...Building long period swell and strong NE
winds will lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding over the
next few days. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal
flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound,
Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers. CF Warnings and Advisories as water
levels will remain elevated.

Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell
from distant Humberto is expected to peak today. While Humberto
begins to move away later this week, swell from Imelda then
quickly arrives into the area and will also peak today into
Thursday. As a result, swell impacts are expected the next few
days, which include dangerous rip currents, large breaking
waves, ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup
impacts. Most significant impacts at the moment look to be
across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke
where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible into Thu given
weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of
inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX.
The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may
exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell. High
Surf Advisories remain for the entire coast for rough surf and
beach erosion.

Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to
water level rises the next few days. 1-2 ft of inundation is
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and
Pamlico/Pungo rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094-
     194.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-199.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/OJC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX