369
FXUS62 KMHX 120255
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
955 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through late week. A
frontal system will approach the area late weekend and early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Chilly again tonight, although not as cold as last night

Arctic high pressure is centered across the Southeast and
pushes southward tonight ahead of another northern stream
shortwave. Tonight, skies are mostly clear and winds may
decouple inland to start off, but as the northern stream
shortwave moves across the Mid-Atlantic, a tightened pressure
gradient will make it difficult for winds to remain decoupled.
With this in mind, I expect temps to rapidly drop off around and
shortly after sunset when radiational cooling conditions are
most effective. However, after midnight, light winds are
expected to hinder any further radiational cooling, allowing
temps to bottom out in the low to mid 30s. While unlikely, in a
reasonable worst case scenario where we remain decoupled through
the night lows would be in the upper 20s inland. For beaches,
winds will be persistent enough to keep lows near 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Tue...

Key Messages

- Breezy, warmer day with highs near 60

High pressure remains centered across the SE US Wednesday with
southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still ~5
degrees below normal with highs near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tue...A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front
pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry
and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip,
with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging
sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding
offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid
60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and
early next week, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 7 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty winds (20-25kt) on Wednesday
 - LLWS impacts expected late tonight into early Wednesday AM

Winds have eased since earlier this afternoon with widespread
light and variable winds noted inland, and a steady 5-10 kt
west wind along the coast and OBX. However these light winds
will be short lived as winds once again pick up on Wednesday
coming from a SW`rly direction with gusts up around 15-20 kts
forecast after about 13-15Z Wed as a mid level shortwave passes
across the region. Winds will eventually ease Wed evening
closer to sunset as shortwave pushes out to sea and the pressure
gradient relaxes. Late tonight into early Wednesday morning,
strengthening winds aloft will overspread the area leading to an
increased risk of LLWS impacts from around 09z-14z. Otherwise
expecting VFR conditions across all of ENC tonight with little
to no cloud cover or fog threat.

Outlook: The risk of significant aviation impacts appears low
beyond Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 7 PM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Small Craft Advisories in effect for most area waters

 - Conditions improve for the end of the work week

Only update was to take down the small crafts in the
Neuse/Bay/Pamlico/Pungo/Alligator rivers as winds have eased and
are forecast to remain below SCA criteria into Wed.

Prev Disc...Latest obs show NW winds 15-25 kt across the inland
waters and 20-25 kt gusting to 25-30 kt across the coastal
waters and Pamlico Sound...with seas 5-8 ft (highest offshore of
of Hatteras). Winds grad relax a bit tonight, but gradients
tighten again early Wed as a dry front approaches the waters.
SCA conditions expected to return across most waters Wed and Wed
night, and could see some gale force gusts near the Gulf
Stream. For now have elected to stick with a SCA through
Wednesday given the low probs and coverage of forecast gale
force gusts.

Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday 10-20 kt as
high pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the
coast first half of the weekend. Better boating conditions
expected Friday with NW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Moderate
NNW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat with seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Wednesday due to
dry and breezy conditions.

Despite cool temperatures this afternoon, a very dry airmass
with dewpoints in the teens has allowed relative humidities (RH)
to fall into the low to mid 30s percent. Through the remainder
of the afternoon, RH may bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s
percent for much of ENC. A mixed airmass should prevent RHs from
showing significant recovery overnight. This will then be
followed up by another day of low RHs on Wednesday. Winds will
become southerly tonight and continue this way into Wednesday,
which should lead to slowly rising dewpoints, and guidance
suggests RHs may only fall to around 30%. This may end up
slightly higher than today. Winds on Wednesday are expected to
be breezy, but not quite as strong as today. In light of all of
this, we will continue with an Increased Fire Danger statement
through this afternoon. Pending any additional collaboration
with the NCFS, the plan is to forego an IFD for Wednesday.
However, the breezy and dry conditions are worth noting.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RJ
FIRE WEATHER...MHX