095
FXUS62 KMHX 222350
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
650 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through the waters this evening
followed by a reinforcing front Sunday night. High pressure
builds into the area early next week before another frontal
system brings the next chance of rain late Tuesday through
Wednesday. Cool and dry high pressure then builds back in behind
this system Thanksgiving and the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...A shortwave trough is currently pushing
across the Mid-Atlantic with a cold front draped across SE and
central VA. Sufficient forcing with the s/w in the presence of
strong shear and modest instability is bringing widely scattered
showers across NE NC this afternoon. With 45-55kt of bulk shear
and 500-1000J/Kg CAPE in place, saw a few stronger cells with
reflectivity around 40-50+ dbz earlier this afternoon, but they
have since weakened as they move into a more stable marine
environment. The shortwave pushes offshore late this afternoon
but isolated to widely scattered showers will continue to be
possible as the cold front pushes south across the area through
mid evening. Continue to include slight chance for a
thunderstorm through early evening given shear and instability
parameters. Precip chances tapers off behind the front this
evening but a secondary shortwave will push across the area
afternoon midnight bringing the potential for additional
showers, mainly south of the Pamlico River.

Warm temps this afternoon in the 70s most area. Most climate
sites remain a few degrees shy of breaking a record (see
CLIMATE section below), with the exception of KNCA has at least
tied its previous record with its 2 PM observation. Temps will
continue to be around 10 degrees above normal tonight with lows
around 50 inland to mid 50s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...High pressure ridges into the area Sunday
with clearing skies after morning stratus dissipates. Temps will
be around 10 degrees cooler than today with highs in the mid 60s
most areas, though northerly flow will keep highs across the
Northern OBX around 60.

A northern stream shortwave pushes across the northern Mid-
Atlantic and New England Sunday with the attendant cold front
pushing south across the area late Sunday night. Deep WNW
downslope flow will bring sufficient subsidence to keep
conditions dry with the front and will likely see little in the
way of clouds. The front will usher in an even cooler airmass,
back to around normal, and expect lows around 40 inland to
around 50 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Cool and dry high pressure will build
across the area Monday and slides offshore on Tuesday. Temps
will be near normal Monday and Monday night, but southerly
return flow will bring warming temps on Tuesday with highs
around 6-10 degrees above normal.

Next chance for rain arrives late Tuesday and continues into
Wednesday as a shortwave trough and attendant cold front
approaches the area. This system has the potential to tap into
some Gulf moisture, as layer streamlines are out of the sw
through the SE CONUS, but timing and mesoscale features are yet
to be ironed out, so continue to advertise no higher than 40-60%
pops this far out in time. Temps will continue to be well above
normal Wednesday and some locations may approach record values.

High pressure builds into the area on Thanksgiving through the
end of the week bringing dry conditions and much cooler temps
across the region. Temps are looking to be around 5-10+ degrees
below normal with highs in the 50s. Sub freezing temps are
possible for many inland locations Thursday night through
Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 7 PM Sat...

Key Messages

 - Low stratus likely (80%+ chance) to bring IFR conditions to
   much of ENC tonight

 - VFR conditions return with clearing skies late Sunday morning

Isolated showers and even a thunderstorm still possible at KOAJ
and even KEWN for the next hour or two. Too low of a probability
to include in TAFS and will handle with short term updates as
needed.

As a cold front pushes through the region, low- level
cold air advection and moisture pooling underneath a frontal
inversion will lead to the resurgence of low stratus from
northeast to southwest. Confidence is high (greater than 80%
chance) for low stratus to bring widespread IFR conditions to
much of ENC tonight. A second, weak shortwave will also push
through the region after midnight tonight. This will bring
another low chance (10-30%) of isolated to scattered showers
before dawn on Sunday. Have opted against including a mention of
precip in the TAFs as of this cycle but will continue to
monitor trends. This may also help to improve conditions to MVFR
or even VFR toward daybreak, and we show this trend especially
across the far northern terminals.

Low stratus will be slow to lift tomorrow morning especially
acrdoss the southern terminals, given the frontal version that
will be in place. Current expectation is for sub-VFR conditions
to linger into the late morning before skies clear out for the
rest of the TAF period. Again this will be most likely down
toward KOAJ.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions expected through early this
coming week as cooler high pressure builds into the region. Another
frontal system will bring the next chances for precip mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM Saturday...WSW prefrontal flow around 10-15 kt
continues across most of the waters with the exception of the
northern waters where winds have shifted to northerly behind an
outflow boundary associated with showers moving across NE NC and
the offshore waters near the Gulf Stream where warmer waters
have allowed deeper mixing and have seen SW winds around 20 kt
with gusts as high as 25-30 kt and seas have build up to 6 ft.
Have extended the SCA south of Oregon Inlet a couple of hours
with conditions still above criteria but they should be
gradually improving as the front approaches.

The cold front is currently approaching the VA/NC border and
will push across the ENC waters this evening with a northerly
surge around 10-20 kt expected. Could see a brief initial post
frontal gust as high as 25 kt but for the most part expect
conditions to remain below SCA criteria. Seas expected to
mainly be around 2-4 ft tonight. Northerly winds diminish
through the day Sunday with high pressure ridging while backing
to NW to W during the afternoon as the high sags southward ahead
of a reinforcing backdoor front. The reinforcing front will
push through the waters late Sunday night with a stronger Nly
surge potentially bringing brief SCA winds to the some of the
coastal waters Sunday night to early Monday. High pressure
slides offshore Tuesday with S to SWly return flow developing.
Could see SCA conditions developing as early as Tuesday night
across portions of the waters, mainly across the offshore waters
near the Gulf Stream, ahead of a cold front. The front is
progged to push across the waters Wednesday night with NW post
frontal flow likely bringing a period of SCA conditions for much
of the waters on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 11/22 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        78/1992      (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   78/1985      (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      81/1931      (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   79/1997      (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         80/1953      (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    77/2007      (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...EH/ZC
MARINE...SK
CLIMATE...MHX