281
FXUS62 KMLB 230745
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog possible through early this morning,
  especially across the interior.

- Isolated showers are forecast today through Monday as a weak
  front moves into the area and stalls, but mainly dry and warm
  weather persists through early this week.

- A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, ushering in
  cooler than normal temperatures into late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak front across the southeast U.S. will push
slowly southward into North Florida today, and then shift into
northern portions of Central Florida late this afternoon. This
boundary will continue to slowly slide southward, eventually
stalling across the region into tonight. Stratus will build down and
expand through early this morning, near to north of Orlando, with
patchy/areas of fog possible across much of east central Florida.
However, HREF guidance indicates fog chances are lower than last
night. Any stratus/fog will lift and break up into mid morning as
daytime heating sets in. It will be mostly dry, but increasing
moisture and a developing sea breeze may kick off a few showers or
sprinkles later in the afternoon/early evening, mainly near to
northeast of Orlando, closer to the front. Overall rain chances
remain low, and have limited PoPs to 20 percent. As this boundary
shifts southward and low level winds veer to the NE, a slight
chance for onshore moving showers will exist, mainly across
Brevard County and Treasure Coast into tonight.

After any stratus across the north diminishes, skies will be partly
sunny today, with highs still several degrees above normal in the
low 80s. Temps will remain mild overnight, with lows in the 60s.
Patchy fog development will again be possible, mainly across the
interior late tonight into early Monday morning.

Monday-Tuesday...Mid level ridge builds E/NE across Florida early
this week, with front shifting back northward as a warm front Monday
night into Tuesday. Isolated showers will continue to be possible,
mainly near to south of the Cape on Monday as front lingers and
onshore flow develops. But as this front lifts north, mostly dry
conditions are generally forecast for Tuesday, with some showers
persisting offshore. Highs will mostly remain in the low 80s, with
overnight lows still in the 60s. Lower fog potential into Monday
night as low level SE winds increase above the surface, increasing
mixing. However, fog chances may increase once again into Tuesday
night/early Wednesday as low level winds veer southerly and
weaken.

Wednesday-Sunday...Large scale trough aloft will shift eastward from
the central to eastern U.S. from mid to late week, which will weaken
the mid level ridge across the region, and shift it east-southeast.
The trough will also shift a cold front through the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Low end rain chances (20-30%) with a
slight chance for thunderstorms continues in the forecast, southeast
of Orlando through Wednesday-Thursday as front approaches and moves
through the region, with drier air filtering in behind the front and
ending rain chances into Friday. However, high pressure building in
north of the front will quickly lead to a developing breezy onshore
flow into the weekend, which will gradually increase moisture and
should also lead to an increase in onshore moving showers.

Temperatures continue to warm into Wednesday, with highs in the low
to mid 80s ahead of the approaching front. As cold front crosses the
area, highs on Thanksgiving are forecast to fall to the low to mid
70s near to north of Orlando, and in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees south. North-northeast winds will continue to allow max
temps to drop into Friday, ranging from the upper 60s across Volusia
County and low to mid 70s farther south and inland. Lows will fall
into the 50s to low 60s most locations into Thursday night and
Friday night, but may see min temps as low as the upper 40s
northwest of I-4 early Friday morning. Developing onshore breeze
into next weekend will lead to a gradually rise in temps, with highs
still in the 70s and overnight lows back into the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today-Tonight...Westerly winds up to 10-15 knots this morning will
gradually become north-northeast this afternoon and evening, with
speeds decreasing to 5-10 knots as a weak front pushes into central
FL and stalls overnight. Wave heights will remain around 1-3 feet.
Isolated showers will be possible across the waters with this front.

Monday-Thursday...Winds veer onshore into early this week as front
lingers across the waters and eventually shifts northward into
Tuesday. Wind speeds increase to 10-15 knots Monday and decrease to
5-10 knots Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as winds veer to the
south-southeast. Seas will continue around 1-3 feet early to mid
week, but may increase briefly to 4 feet well offshore north of the
Cape into Monday night. A stronger cold front will move through the
waters late Wednesday night into Thursday, with boating conditions
deteriorating. Northerly winds will increase to 15-20 knots behind
the front Thanksgiving Day into Thursday night, with seas building
to 3-5 feet Thursday and 5-7 feet Thursday night.

Isolated showers will continue to be possible over the waters and
may see an storm or two develop south of the Cape Wednesday into
Thursday as front approaches and moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

A very weak frontal boundary oozing into Central Florida is
expected to produce at least MVFR-IFR CIG and MVFR VIS impacts at
the northern ECFL terminals (KMCO/KISM-KTIX north), and there is
potential for CIGs to drop to LIFR. This stratus deck has already
developed in NOFL, with obs up there reporting BKN-OVC 006-009
ceilings. A little bit of uncertainty in arrival timing, and the
06Z TAF package trends towards HREF/LAMP which was generally on
the earlier side, reaching KDAB-KLEE with prevailing MVFR and
TEMPO IFR around 09Z, and KMCO/KISM-KSFB with TEMPO MVFR around
11Z. If conditions develop sooner Orlando area terminals could see
more prevailing MVFR-IFR impacts, and impacts would persist
longer at all northern terminals, as late as 16Z. VFR conditions
prevail once stratus breaks up. Winds generally light as they
veer northerly, with a weak and late east coast sea breeze
shifting winds onshore in the evening. There is a very low (20% or
less) chance for showers in the late afternoon and evening, only
good enough for VCSH at KDAB-KTIX, but can`t rule out a shower at
KMCO and area terminals. Inland terminals could see fog again
early Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  78  64 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  81  66  80  66 /  10  20  20  10
VRB  82  65  81  65 /  10  20  20  10
LEE  81  62  81  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  82  63  81  64 /  20  20  10  10
ORL  81  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  82  63  81  64 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley