


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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119 FXUS62 KMLB 181050 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 650 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged. - Poor boating conditions linger across the Atlantic waters this morning, including the Gulf Stream and near inlets. - Weak cool front forecast to approach Sunday night and stall across south central Florida Monday bringing a small chance for showers. Reinforcing cool front forecast to push through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Today-Sun...High pressure along the SC coast this morning will move east over the western Atlantic through Sunday. Meanwhile, a potent upper level trough will push steadily eastward across the central US today and the Great Lakes/OH Valley Sunday, pushing an assocd cool front into the deep South. As a result, our local winds will become easterly today and southerly Sunday. Rain chances are quite low today despite scattered marine stratocumulus pushing onshore. These clouds are pancaking beneath a subsidence inversion around 5k ft with considerable dry air above. While a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out esp near the coast, have drawn a silent 5-10% PoP for measurable rain today. Isolated coastal showers are possible along the Treasure coast tonight/early Sun as flow veers SE and have drawn a silent 10% PoP there. Elsewhere on Sunday, moisture will be increasing across the north assocd with the approaching front. A small chance for showers may reach northern sections (Lake/Volusia) late in the afternoon but have focused the small 20% PoP for the evening. Max temperatures will again be in the low 80s coast and mid 80s interior today then warm into the mid to upper 80s Sun as winds become southerly. The surf may look more inviting this weekend as winds decrease and air temperatures warm, but long-period swell will maintain a HIGH risk of rip currents through at least Sunday. Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean! Next Week...The cool front is forecast to stall across central or south FL Monday. Temperatures will remain at or above normal with upper 80s lifting northward into metro Orlando Tue. Rain chances are low but should be focused across southern sections where moisture pooling along frontal remnants exists. So it is here where a small 20% PoP is drawn and have added thunder. A reinforcing cool front is forecast to push more cleanly through the area Wed bringing temps back down to normal Thu-Fri. It will not be a significant cool down as wind flow quickly turns NE around building high pressure to the north. While it looks mainly dry late week, the onshore (E/NE) pressure gradient looks to tighten which would produce breezy/windy conditions along the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 High pressure along the South Carolina coast this morning will push seaward over the western Atlantic this weekend. A weak cool front will approach the local Atlantic waters late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to stall over south central Florida Monday, before a reinforcing dry cool front pushes through mid- week. Winds decrease this weekend, veering from the east today around 10 knots to the southeast Sunday. Seas will be slower to subside primarily due to swell, remaining between 4 to 6 feet. Have maintained a Caution headline for the offshore waters/Gulf Stream today and Caution near inlets. Onshore flow less than 15 knots will continue through early next week with gradually subsiding swell. Winds become northerly 12-15 knots behind the next front Wed which will produce choppy conditions especially in the Gulf Stream. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conds continue. Scattered to broken marine stratocu (near 5 kft) will move onshore beneath a strong subsidence inversion through the afternoon. BKN clouds will be prevalent near coastal terminals and over the Atlantic today with mainly scattered stratocu inland this afternoon. Easterly winds expected to 8-11 knots by late morning into the afternoon then veering ESE by evening and becoming light southeast tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 66 86 68 / 10 0 0 20 MCO 83 65 88 70 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 81 69 85 70 / 10 10 0 10 VRB 82 68 86 70 / 10 10 0 10 LEE 83 64 87 67 / 0 0 10 20 SFB 83 65 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 83 66 88 70 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 82 67 86 70 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Volkmer