308
FXUS62 KMLB 031958
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Cool today with gradual warming through Saturday before becoming
  more seasonable into early next week.

- Next cold front will move through the area Sunday into Monday.

- Dry conditions through late week, with scattered showers and
  isolated lightning storms returning this weekend along and ahead
  of that next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Rest of today-Tonight... The cold front that swept through the area
late last night into early this morning is across South Florida this
afternoon. Surface high pressure will continue to build across the
Florida peninsula into tonight. The low stratus that filtered across
the area this morning has long since improved, and will continue to
gradually improve through the day, with partly/mostly sunny skies
forecast for this afternoon. Locally, winds will be N/NW at 5-10 mph
through the day, except along the coast later this afternoon where
winds will veer NNE with the east coast sea breeze. Winds overnight
will be come light and northerly. Drier air will continue to filter
across the area, with global PW values ranging from 0.6-1.08" across
east central Florida this afternoon. This will result in no
mentionable rain chances through tonight. Temperatures will be more
seasonable with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s across the
north, and upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be much cooler,
with lows ranging from upper 40s to low 50s along and north of the I-
4 corridor, and mid to upper 50s everywhere else (except low 60s
across the immediate coast of the Treasure Coast.

Thursday-Friday... Upper high pressure across the Caribbean will
expand across central Florida through the period. An upper level low
across the Quebec region on Thursday will shift eastward into the
New Brunswick area by Friday and out into the Atlantic. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over Florida while it slowly
shifts eastward. A low pressure system will develop across the
western Gulf on Thursday before shifting eastward across the
northern Gulf late Thursday into Friday. This will drag a cold front
across the Midwest and Deep South region on Thursday and into north
Florida on Friday. Locally, NE to ENE winds at 5-10 mph on Thursday
will become light and variable over night before becoming S-SW at 5-
10 mph on Friday. Despite increasing moisture along and ahead of the
approaching front, no mentionable rain chances across east central
Florida through late week.

Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend, with seasonable to
slightly above normal temperatures becoming above normal by Friday.
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s along and north of the
I-4 corridor, and upper 70s to low 80s everywhere else on Thursday,
with low to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight lows will also gradually
warm, with lows ranging from low to mid 50s to low 60s across the
interior, and low to mid 60s across the coast on Thursday, and
low to mid 60s on Friday.

Saturday-Wednesday... Upper high pressure centered over the
Caribbean on Saturday will slide southward into early next week as
an upper level trough begins to dig across the Midwest and Deep
South. A surface cold front across North Florida on Saturday will
finally get pushed across east central Florida and into South
Florida Sunday into Monday as that trough pushes eastwards towards
the eastern US coastline.  Surface high pressure will then build
down across the Florida peninsula from the Deep South behind the
front through mid-week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Locally,
southwest winds around 10 mph or less on Saturday will veer north to
northwest Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front before shifting
north to northeast Monday behind the front. North to northeast winds
will prevail through early week with winds becoming northeast to
east on Wednesday. Moisture will increase through the weekend ahead
of the front (forecast PW around 1.75-2.1") before drier air moves
in behind the front into early next week with PW values forecast to
drop to below 1.0".

Rain chances return to the forecast on Saturday as moisture is
increasing over the area, with a low to medium (20-50 percent)
chance of rain Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances
occurring along and north of the I-4 corridor. There is a low threat
for lightning storms across the north, mainly north of Sanford in
the afternoon. Rain chances continue Sunday, with a medium (50
percent) chance of rain through the day as the cold front approaches
the local area. The threat for lightning storms will also continue
on Sunday, with a low threat for storms from Brevard to Osceola
county northward through late morning, expanding to across all of
east central Florida in the afternoon through early evening.
Lingering isolated to scattered showers on Monday, mainly from
southern Volusia to southern Lake county southward. The highest
rain chances (30 percent) on Monday will occur across the Treasure
Coast. Drier air will filter down across the area behind the front
Monday, with conditions remaining dry through mid-week.

Temperatures will remain above normal on Saturday with highs ranging
from upper 70s to low 80s across the north, and low to mid 80s
across the south. With the higher rain chances on Sunday,
temperatures will begin to decrease slightly (while remaining
generally above normal though), with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 70s across the north, and upper 70s to low 80s across the south.
Below normal temperatures will spread across the local area on
Monday behind the front and continue through mid week with afternoon
highs ranging generally from mid to upper 60s across the north, and
upper 60s to low 70s across the south. Overnight lows will generally
be in the 60s Saturday night before dropping to low to mid 50s to
near 60 degrees along and north of the I-4 corridor and low to mid
60s everywhere else on Sunday night as the front is pushing through.
Overnight temperatures continue to drop Monday night through mid
week with temperatures ranging from mid to upper 40s to low 50s
across the interior, and low to mid 50s along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Today-Sunday... Generally favorable boating conditions through early
weekend, with conditions deteriorating Sunday ahead of an
approaching front. High pressure will continue to build across the
local waters through late week before shifting southward during the
weekend. NW/N winds at 7-12 KT today will become N/NE at around 10
KT on Thursday. The pressure gradient begins to tighten late week
and into the weekend, with winds veering S/SW and increasing to 10-
15 KT on Friday and Saturday before becoming W/NW on Sunday and
increasing to 10-15 KT nearshore and 15-20 KT offshore. Seas 2-4 ft
through Saturday, increasing to 2-4ft in the nearshore and 4-6 ft in
the offshore on Sunday. Cautionary headlines will likely be
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1239 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

May see some MVFR cigs linger right along the Treasure Coast from
KVRB-KSUA through 19-20Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight as drier air
continues to filter in behind the front. This will keep rain
chances out of the forecast and allow lower level clouds to
continue to diminish. NW winds 5-7 knots will become generally
light and variable tonight through Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  53  72  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  55  78  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  59  76  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  77  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  51  76  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  53  76  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  55  76  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  78  62  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich