795
FXUS62 KMLB 120531
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1231 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 655 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Light wind, clear skies, and cold temperatures will support
  patchy to areas of frost across Lake, Volusia, NW Orange,
  western Seminole and NW Brevard counties tonight

- Dry weather is forecast through the remainder of the week with a
  gradual warming trend into the weekend and early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Now-Tonight...High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast
continues to expand eastward this afternoon. Here in east-central
Florida, we are on the eastern periphery of the surface high. The
tightened pressure gradient continues to produce gusty winds
along the coast, but where the gradient is weaker over the
interior, winds are beginning to subside. Temperatures have
struggled to reach the mid and upper 50s this afternoon, with only
a couple of spots in the low 60s along the Treasure Coast.

As we approach sunset, temperatures will quickly begin to fall
into the 40s and mid 50s. Another cold night is in store for the
area, especially across the interior and north of Interstate 4. In
the presence of light to nearly calm winds and clear sky
conditions, there is the potential for patchy/areas of frost to
form across Lake and inland Volusia counties. A Frost Advisory is
in effect there, starting at midnight. Patchy frost is possible in
surrounding areas, perhaps reaching as far as northern Orange,
Seminole, and Brevard counties.

Wednesday-Sunday...A few sites across the north, including Daytona
Beach, Sanford, and Leesburg, may approach record low temperatures
again Wednesday morning. Lows are forecast to plummet into the mid
30s to around 40 degrees along and north of I-4. With lighter
winds, wind chill will be less of a factor. Through the day,
temperatures will warm more efficiently into the upper 60s to low
70s areawide under mostly sunny skies. Some clouds may linger
along the far southern reaches of the Treasure Coast into the
afternoon. Overnight lows retreat into the 40s and 50s Wednesday
night with the coldest spots north and west of the Orlando metro.

Dry weather is forecast through the rest of the week as high
pressure maintains its influence over the Florida Peninsula. Broad
mid level troughing over the eastern U.S. keeps our mid/upper
level winds out of the northwest through at least Saturday. From
Sunday onward, a broad mid level ridge axis slides east from the
central U.S. and flattens into early next week. The main story
during this mid to extended range period will be temperatures
warming a few to several degrees each day. By the weekend, we
should be back in "near normal" territory, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and nighttime temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.
Model differences appear beyond Monday/Tuesday but generally still
support warming temperatures, reaching the low 80s areawide to
start the new work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Hazardous boating conditions are forecast to continue through at
least this evening before conditions slowly improve from north to
south over the local waters. Northerly winds persist around 20 kt
with seas 7-12 ft (offshore) and 6-10 ft (nearshore). The Small
Craft Advisory currently in effect for all marine zones will be
pared back to just the offshore Brevard and all of the Treasure
Coast waters at 7 PM. Small craft should still exercise caution
elsewhere through tonight.

High pressure builds over the waters mid to late week with
northerly winds and seas subsiding. Generally favorable boating
conditions are forecast to last from mid week into the weekend as
dry weather looks to prevail for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1229 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions prevailing. Marine stratocu near 035-040 in the
afternoon along the coast from near MLB southward may become
broken at times. Light NNW winds overnight will back W/WNW in the
afternoon over the interior, while NE winds prevail along the
coast. Regardless, speeds around 10 kts or less through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Lower relative humidity along and north of Interstate 4 will lead
to sensitive fire weather conditions on Wednesday. However, winds
will remain light (5-10 mph). Moisture gradually returns to the
area late week into the weekend, limiting fire weather concerns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wednesday, November 12th:
                            RECORD   NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 12-Nov  40 1995  59
Leesburg (LEE)      12-Nov  38 1991  58
Sanford (SFB)       12-Nov  40 1968  59
Orlando (MCO)       12-Nov  35 1913  59
Melbourne (MLB)     12-Nov  42 1968  61
Vero Beach (VRB)    12-Nov  44 1991  62
Fort Pierce (FPR)   12-Nov  41 1991  61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  47  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  69  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  52  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  72  52  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  68  46  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  69  46  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  69  49  73  53 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  72  52  74  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044-141-
     144.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy