043
FXUS62 KMLB 061806
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
206 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

- Scattered to numerous fast-moving showers off the Atlantic will
  support locally heavy rainfall where banding features can
  develop. Localized flooding will be possible today.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue this
  upcoming week, including minor coastal flooding, life-
  threatening rip currents, and breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet with
  minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high
  tide.

- Breezy and gusty onshore winds will continue through much of
  this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Today... A few training showers along the Treasure Coast early this
morning have mostly diminished with rainfall accumulations observed
around 1" in some spots. Isolated onshore-moving showers are
expected to continue with an uptick in scattered activity
possible near sunrise. By late morning and into the afternoon,
models suggest a surge of locally heavy downpours moving across
east central Florida. High coverage of showers (60-70%) is
forecast today with some areas seeing multiple rounds of rainfall.
Although steering flow remains breezy, convergent and training
bands could allow for localized rainfall accumulations up to 4".
Flooding rainfall will be the primary hazard today, but a few
lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for coastal counties of east central Florida through 8PM.

Expect coastal hazards to persist in breezy onshore flow. Rough surf
and large breaking waves of 5-7 ft are present at area beaches
resulting moderate beach erosion during periods of high tide. A
high risk of life-threatening rip currents exists, and entering
the dangerous surf is not advised. Minor coastal flooding
continues at times of high tide. Saltwater flooding of low-lying
roads, docks, and yards along the shore and intracoastal will be
possible.

Tuesday-Thursday... Surface high pressure along the Atlantic
seaboard is nudged offshore as an area of troughing slides into the
eastern U.S. A pressure gradient is maintained locally, keeping a
period of breezy/ gusty onshore flow. Drier air begins to advect
from the north-northeast on Tuesday, helping to reduce rain chances
into mid week. Moisture will be slower to erode across the south,
keeping locally higher rain chances (50-60%) in vicinity of Lake
Okeechobee on Tuesday. Otherwise, expect only scattered rain chances
through Wednesday. Moisture begins to slowly rebuild Thursday with a
gradual increase in PoPs forecast from south (60%) to north (40-
50%). High temperatures range near to just above normal in the mid
80s along the coast and upper 80s across the interior. Muggy morning
lows in the low to mid 70s Tuesday morning fall a few degrees
Wednesday and Thursday.

Persistent onshore flow and a period of high astronomical tides will
keep most coastal hazards in place through mid week including rough
surf, life-threatening rip currents, and moderate coastal
erosion. Minor coastal flooding remains possible at times of high
tide including along areas of the intracoastal waterways.

Friday-Sunday... A mid level trough is forecast to dig across the
southeast U.S. late week and into the weekend. An associated cold
front slides across the region, bringing the first taste of fall.
Temperatures are forecast a few degrees below normal Friday and
Saturday mostly in the low to mid 80s. By Sunday, temperatures are
forecast to more widely spread the low 80s. Low temperatures
gradually cool each day, reaching the 60s across much of east
central Florida by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and a few
storms are forecast on Friday as the boundary approaches the area.
Perhaps some lingering rain chances on Saturday depending on the
timing of the front. Otherwise, drier conditions build behind the
boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Hazardous wind and seas continue early this week with Small Craft
Advisories remaining in effect for the local waters through
Wednesday. Breezy onshore winds 15-25 kts persist, slackening to
around 10-20 kts by mid week. Seas 8-10 ft offshore and 7-8 ft
nearshore are forecast gradually improve, becoming widely 5-6 ft
Wednesday. Rounds of onshore-moving showers continue today with
coverage increasing to 60-70%, especially near the coast. Drier air
builds across the waters Tuesday helping to reduce rain chances into
mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms continue to push
onshore and into the interior this afternoon. Have maintained VCSH
for much of TAF period, with VCTS mentioned from top of the TAF
period til 23Z. Have included tempo groups for MVFR SHRA and TSRA
impacts from 18-20Z as daytime heating increases and instability
and coverage of this activity this afternoon. Current models
indicate rain chances decrease over the interior this evening, but
linger along the coast as onshore flow remains. Thus, have
continued VCSH along the coast overnight, but allowing it to drop
off across the interior. Onshore-moving showers increase into
Tuesday morning, with guidance showing them moving into the
interior. Have added VCSH for all TAF sites starting at 15Z, with
VCTS starting at 17Z for interior sites. Rain chances will
decrease areawide into mid/late afternoon, so have taken all
mention of rain out for MCO starting at 22Z. East to northeast
winds 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25KT will continue this afternoon,
decreasing to around 10 KT across the interior tonight, except
along the coast where winds will remain elevated. Winds increase
Tuesday morning to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. VFR conditions
are forecast through the TAF period, with brief periods of MVFR in
and around SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  73  85 /  30  20  10  20
MCO  75  87  74  89 /  30  40  10  30
MLB  77  84  76  85 /  50  50  20  40
VRB  76  85  76  87 /  50  50  30  40
LEE  73  87  72  88 /  20  40  10  20
SFB  75  87  73  88 /  30  40  10  30
ORL  75  87  73  88 /  30  40  10  30
FPR  76  85  75  86 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-
     164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Watson