057
FXUS62 KMLB 231849
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
149 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Isolated showers are possible through at least Monday as a weak
  front stalls over the area; for many locations, mostly dry and
  warm conditions will persist through mid week

- A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, ushering in
  cooler than normal temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Now-Tonight...Light winds are veering north-northwest this afternoon
as low-level moisture gradually increases, evidenced by satellite
and recent observations. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate the
development of an east coast breeze late this afternoon, pushing
inland through the evening. This feature, along with an approaching
front and increased moisture focused below 700mb, could be enough to
spark isolated showers. Light QPF is anticipated, though some CAMs
put down a quick 0.25" from Titusville to Melbourne through
midnight. Probabilities of these locally higher amounts occurring are
around 10-25%. For many locations, dry weather will prevail into
tonight as the front stalls over central Florida. The chance for
light showers or sprinkles continues into early Monday morning as
temperatures settle into the 60s. Some lower clouds are forecast to
build overhead tonight, and patchy fog cannot be ruled out over far
interior locations (namely Lake/Osceola counties) through sunrise.

Monday-Tuesday...A stout dry 700-500mb layer will persist through
Tuesday with modest moisture lingering above and below these levels.
Northwest flow aloft quickly backs to the west-southwest Monday
night into Tuesday as a 500mb ridge axis moves overhead. At the
surface, a stationary front is forecast to linger over the southern
half of the area, until lifting north as a warm front Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Low confidence exists in sprinkles/showers
occurring beyond Monday evening, though it would not be a surprise
to see a few onshore-moving showers brush the coast through
Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs Monday will remain above normal
in the upper 70s to low 80s, warming a bit on Tuesday to the low
and middle 80s areawide. Morning lows are forecast to range from
the low/mid 60s north to the mid/upper 60s along the Treasure
Coast.

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Large scale trough aloft will
shift eastward from the central to eastern U.S., which will weaken
the mid level ridge across the region and lead to H5 height falls
Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time, a stronger cold front is
forecast to move through the area. Low rain chances (15-25%) with a
slight chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast, well south
and east of Orlando Wednesday-Thursday, as the front approaches and
moves through. Drier air will filter in behind the front, ending
rain chances by Thursday night. High pressure building in will
quickly lead to a breezy onshore flow into the weekend, which will
gradually increase moisture and should also lead to an increase in
onshore moving showers.

The short-lived warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 80s ahead of the approaching front. As the cold front
crosses the area, highs on Thanksgiving are forecast to fall to the
low to mid 70s near to north of Orlando, and in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees south. North-northeast winds will continue to allow
max temps to drop into Friday, ranging from the upper 60s across
Volusia County and low to mid 70s farther south and inland. Lows
will fall into the 50s and low 60s Thursday night and Friday night,
with even colder temps in the mid to upper 40s northwest of I-4
early Friday morning. The developing onshore breeze into next
weekend will lead to a gradual rise in temps, with highs still in
the 70s and overnight lows back into the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds around 10 kt or less turn northeast into Monday, increasing
Monday evening and night to 10-15 kt from the east-southeast. A
stalled front and sufficient moisture in place will provide the
opportunity for isolated showers through at least Tuesday morning.
Wave heights generally remain 2-3 ft, though offshore seas briefly
build to 4 ft Monday night into Tuesday morning. The remnant front
lifts north of the waters mid week as a warm front with winds
generally out of the south-southeast.

A stronger cold front arrives Thanksgiving Day, building winds and
seas from north to south. Hazardous boating conditions are
anticipated from this point forward and continuing through at least
Saturday. Seas (as of now) look to reach 5 to 8 ft on late Thursday
into Friday, continuing into Saturday around 5 to 7 ft. Northerly
winds 15-20 kt veer northeast 20-25 kt Friday, turning easterly on
Saturday.

Isolated showers are possible over the waters (especially the Gulf
Stream) with a low chance of a lightning storm south of Cape
Canaveral Wednesday through early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Lingering MVFR CIGs at LEE should finish clearing by around 18Z,
with VFR conditions then prevailing through the afternoon. The
HRRR continues to show a few isolated showers generally north of
MLB. However, any showers, should they develop, should remain very
isolated. Therefore, have not included VCSH for the 18Z update.
Winds under 10 kts today, becoming onshore along the coast this
afternoon as a sea breeze develops.

Light and variable winds return overnight tonight. FG and low
stratus will once again be possible. The highest confidence in
reductions is for interior sites (MCO/SFB/ISM/LEE). However,
models are struggling to narrow down timing and severity. Thus,
have maintained MVFR mentions there, though IFR will be possible.
Any FG and stratus will then clear through the morning hours,
with light onshore flow Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  79  64  81 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  65  82  64  84 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  66  81 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  65  81  65  82 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  63  81  62  83 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  64  81  64  84 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  65  81  64  83 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  64  81  65  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy