923
FXUS62 KMLB 021818
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
218 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

- Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/
  moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall especially
  along the coast. Localized flooding will be a concern through
  this weekend.

- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue
  into the weekend with life-threatening rip currents, high surf
  with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach
  erosion especially near times of high tide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Heavy rainfall threat for this morning materialized across the
northern counties where onshore flow increased earlier, producing
training bands of moderate to at times heavy showers north of the
Beachline, including the Daytona Beach area and portions of the
northern Orlando Metro. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-2" and
locally high amounts to 4" have been occuring in these bands.
This activity will gradually push west and south through the rest
of the day, while additional showers and storms continue to move
onshore, shifting the threat for heavy rainfall to southern coast
and possibly inland by the afternoon and evening. Ponding of water
on roads and minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas
will be the primary storm impact in this low instability/high
moisture environment, with occasional cloud to ground lighting and
some gusty winds also possible.

Dangerous coastal and marine conditions continue, and beach goers
are urged to not enter the life-threatening surf. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all Central Florida Atlantic
waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Today-Fri...High pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard today
will increase the NE-E wind flow and produce a breezy/gusty day.
This onshore flow will support a moistening of the atmos and result
in widespread showers and embedded storms. There is support aloft in
the form of a weak nearly stationary trough as well as a developing
coastal (inverted) low level trough. With MUCAPE near 1000 J/Kg and
PWATs 1.8"-2.0", ingredients are coming together to produce a risk
of excessive rainfall (with efficient rain rates) for portions of
the central FL Atlc coast. Coastal convergence as well as
back-building storms forming bands of heavy rain will affect
portions of the Space and Treasure coasts. Given the strength of
the onshore flow, some of these showers will push well inland and
affect Orlando metro. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" will occur with
locally 4"+ and the highest amounts should occur near the coast.
One or more Flood Advisories look likely over this period.

The tightening pressure gradient around the high pressure to the
north will produce northeast to east winds 15-25mph with higher
gusts esp along the coast. There will not be significant diurnal
range in temps esp along the coast due to very mild low temps
holding in the mid to upper 70s and max temps only in the low to mid
80s. A little larger diurnal range will occur over the interior.

Sat-Wed...Some model guidance show a weak low developing near the
NW Bahamas Fri night and track NW across south FL Sat. NHC has
started outlooking this area for low prob (10%) for tropical
development. If this occurs, even a weak (non tropical) low would
enhance low level convergence and heavy rain threat further across
east central FL. If more heavy rain is anticipated this weekend,
we may need a Flood Watch. By Sunday, the deepest moisture is
forecast to lift north and the pressure gradient eases though
remaining onshore. Rain chances should gradually decrease next
week though remaining at least scattered (50 percent). Would not
be surprised if we are able to lower PoPs further by mid week.
Temps look close to seasonable in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Tight NE to E pressure gradient will develop over the local Atlc
waters today around high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard.
Thus, hazardous to dangerous boating conditions are forecast to
continue across the local Atlantic waters over the next several
days. Wind speeds 15-25 knots with combined seas (wind wave and
swell) of 7-12 feet. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue
through Sat for all the waters. There should be some relaxation of
the pressure gradient Sun-Mon as winds turn E-SE but seas will be
slow to subside so an extension of the SCA appears likely to include
Sunday, at least for the offshore waters.

Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high
coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and
cloud to water lightning. Brief waterspouts will also be possible
especially where cell mergers occur or spin-ups driven by coastal
convergence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Onshore moving showers persists this afternoon, with VCSH at all
terminals starting at 18Z. Showers will begin to decrease across
the north later this afternoon, with VCSH ending at DAB and LEE
at 19Z, which will continue through the overnight. VCSH will end
at 01Z for all the interior sites through the overnight hours,
with VCSH persisting along the coast tonight. Breezy northeast to
east winds this afternoon at 10-15 KT with gusts 20-30 KT. Winds
will begins to decrease to around 10KT across the interior into
the evening and overnight, with the coast staying around 10-15 KT
with gusts 20-25 KT. NE winds will increase once again by mid
morning Friday, with speeds 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. Have
VCSH starting at 15Z on Friday for all sites and persisting
through the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions with brief MVFR
conditions in showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  82  73  82 /  40  60  50  70
MCO  73  84  73  84 /  30  60  40  70
MLB  75  83  75  83 /  40  70  60  70
VRB  74  83  75  84 /  60  70  70  70
LEE  72  84  72  83 /  10  40  30  60
SFB  73  83  73  83 /  30  50  50  70
ORL  73  84  73  83 /  30  50  40  70
FPR  74  83  74  84 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Watson