532
FXUS64 KMOB 070555
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1255 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Most of the earlier convection has dwindled for the evening with the
exception of a small band of light to moderate showers quickly
traversing westward across the coastal counties as of 05z. Most of
the high-res guidance has been hinting at showers and storms flaring
up over the Gulf and near the coastline throughout the overnight and
early morning hours. We don`t expect much out of this overnight
round as it`s moving at a fast pace - just a good soaking. As we
roll toward the afternoon hours, some of the high-res guidance
lights up across parts of southeast MS and southwest AL between 19-
23z, especially for locations west of I-65. The 3-hr HREF PMMs
highlight the aforementioned areas with 2+ inches of rain by the
late afternoon hours. Similar to the past few days, not everywhere
in our area will see rain today, it will be hit or miss, but expect
a good downpour if you do get rain today.

Forcing for showers and storms remains minimal again on Wednesday as
the ridge aloft continues to slide westward across the Gulf. Expect
isolated coverage on Wednesday afternoon area-wide. As the ridge
continues to backbuild westward, the door opens for a shortwave to
dive southward toward the region late in the week as flow aloft
turns northwesterly. A weak front will slide across the region late
in the week with a surge of much drier air filtering into the area
later in the weekend.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains HIGH through tonight,
however, there are indications in the rip current MOS guidance that
we should start to see a steady fall after sunset this evening. The
risk remains MODERATE Wednesday and Thursday for coastal Alabama and
northwest Florida beaches. MOS guidance indicates a sharp increase
in the rip current probabilities Thursday night into Friday with
probabilities indicating a solid HIGH risk on Friday. Conditions
should quickly subside through the day on Saturday and into Sunday.
07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Predominately VFR conditions at the beginning of the period will
be followed by an IFR/MVFR ceiling developing across the area
overnight. The ceiling gradually improves to VFR during the day on
Tuesday. Isolated showers with MVFR conditions will be possible
overnight into Tuesday morning mainly near the coast, then
isolated to scattered showers and storms are anticipated to
develop across the area during the afternoon hours. Light
easterly winds become southeast 5-10 knots on Tuesday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Exercise caution conditions expected over the offshore waters
through late this morning. No impact expected other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms late Tuesday
and Wednesday. Advisory level conditions are possible late in the
week as a front slides across the Gulf. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  88  68  86  64  81  61  82 /  20  20  10  20  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   73  88  71  86  66  80  64  82 /  10  20  10  20  20   0   0   0
Destin      74  87  72  85  66  80  64  82 /  10  10  10  20  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   69  90  66  86  60  80  56  83 /  20  20  10  30  20   0   0   0
Waynesboro  68  85  63  84  61  79  57  81 /  30  20   0  10   0   0   0   0
Camden      68  87  64  83  60  77  56  81 /  20  20  10  30  10   0   0   0
Crestview   68  89  67  86  61  79  57  82 /  10  20  10  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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