263
FXUS64 KMOB 171733
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

 - Showers and storms return to the forecast Saturday night into
   Sunday morning. A stronger storm cannot be ruled out.

 - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by
   Friday evening, with a high risk expected for Saturday night and
   Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions
   and follow the posted beach warning flags.

 - Drier air next week and expanding drought may lead to fire
   weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An upper ridge over the eastern CONUS yields to a large upper
trof which evolves over the central states on Saturday then pushes
across the eastern states Sunday into Sunday night. An associated
surface low passes well off to the north and brings a cold front
through the forecast area mainly during Sunday morning. Deep
layer moisture steadily improves ahead of the approaching front,
with precipitable water values reaching around 2 inches Saturday
night. A series of shortwaves embedded within the upper trof
look to result in the best deep layer lift organizing just ahead
of the approaching front. The timing of the best forcing looks to
be from 06Z Sunday through about 15Z Sunday, and plenty of
favorable shear will be available thanks to a 40-50 knot 850 mb
jet. The question for the severe weather potential looks to be
tied to the lower level lapse rates, which is typical for a mostly
nocturnal event like this. Guidance for MLCAPE values ranges from
500 J/kg (or less) to 1000-1500 J/kg, although it was noted that
GFS ensemble guidance showed about a 40% chance for CAPE values to
exceed 1000. We are currently not outlooked by SPC, but will
continue to monitor and mention strong storm development is
possible.

Have continued with a predominately dry forecast through
Saturday, except for a small chance of rain Saturday afternoon
over extreme southeast Mississippi. Likely pops follow for
Saturday night west of I-65 with chance to good chance pops
elsewhere, then chance to good chance pops continue into Sunday
morning. Sunday afternoon will be mostly dry except for a small
chance of rain east of I-65, then dry conditions follow for Sunday
night and Monday. Another cold front approaches the area Monday
night then moves through on Tuesday, but moisture return ahead of
the front will be insufficient to warrant pops. Yet another cold
front approaches the area Wednesday night then slowly moves
through Thursday into Thursday night, but again deep layer
moisture looks too limited to support rain chances as well. A low
risk of rip currents on Friday will be followed by a moderate risk
for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday will be a
high risk, then a moderate risk is in effect for Sunday night and
Monday. A low risk of rip currents follows for Monday night
through Tuesday night. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight.
Winds remain generally out of the southeast at around 5 to 10
knots today, relaxing to near 5 knots overnight tonight. Winds
increase during the day Saturday out of the southeast at 10 knots,
occasionally gusting upwards of 15 to 20 knots at times. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Saturday,
then a northwesterly flow develops on Sunday as a cold front moves
through. The offshore flow briefly strengthens Sunday night then
diminishes on Monday. A light to moderate westerly to northerly
flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  84  69  82 /   0  10  50  40
Pensacola   71  82  72  84 /   0  10  40  50
Destin      70  82  71  83 /   0   0  30  50
Evergreen   61  88  66  85 /   0   0  50  50
Waynesboro  63  87  66  80 /   0  10  60  30
Camden      63  87  65  80 /   0   0  60  40
Crestview   60  85  65  84 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$