294
FXUS64 KMOB 172359
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

General VFR conditions are expected to continue across the area
through Tuesday. Continued lingering rain and showers over
interior portions of southwest AL and southeast MS early this
evening will continue to move away and/or diminish through mid
evening. Overall not expecting any rain overnight, although an
isolated shower could be possible. Some patchy light fog in some
areas will also be possible overnight as well, but not widespread
or impactful enough to include in TAF`s. Only an isolated shower
or storm possible on Tuesday as well, so nothing indicated in
TAF`s then either. Surface winds are expected to be mainly out of
the east through the period, light tonight into early Tuesday but
increasing somewhat (to 15 to 20 knots at times) during the
afternoon on Tuesday. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains positioned over
the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. A plume of deep moisture
continues to slowly advect across portions of the western FL
panhandle, southwest AL, and southeast MS along the western side of
the ridge axis. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across this portion of our region within the
moist and unstable environment this afternoon. A few cells have
occasionally pulsed strong and have produced strong wind gusts of 40-
50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

The plume of deep moisture will continue to pivot westward as the
upper level ridge along the east coast continues to strengthen and
expand. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger
into the evening, with the best chance over southeast MS and far
southwest AL. Convection should diminish overnight, although a few
showers/storms could develop offshore late and approach the
immediate coast toward daybreak. Will maintain low POPs Tuesday
morning, mainly across southern portions of southeast MS and far
southwest AL, before POPs decrease/shift westward with time Tuesday
afternoon. Most areas will be more under the influence of the
strengthening ridge axis by Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations and in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate coast and
beaches. Highs on Tuesday generally range in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

A HIGH risk of deadly rip currents will continue through Tuesday.
Surf will quickly build to 4-6 feet along area beaches tonight and
up to 5-7 feet on Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory goes into effect
starting tonight and will continue over the next few days. /21

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Upper ridging is in no rush to go anywhere as it remains generally
parked across the southeastern U.S. through Friday. Ridging
finally begins to break down as we head into the weekend with
upper troughing digging in across the Great Lakes into Midwest
states by Sunday. A typical diurnal cycle for this time of year is
expected with afternoon isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day, mainly in association with the sea- breeze
boundary pushing inland. Best chances will remain confined across
coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle any given
day. Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90`s,
perhaps locally pushing upper 90`s by late week into the weekend.
Overnight lows remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70`s
expected.

A High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through the
weekend. A High Surf Advisory also goes into effect starting late
Monday night and lasts through Thursday afternoon. Surf heights
will remain around 5 to 7 feet during this period.

In terms of tropics, there`s a couple areas of interest to watch
over the next week. The first is in association with newly
designated PTC1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system
will remain well to our southwest and the only impacts from it
will continue to be increased surf heights through Thursday and
rip currents through late week into the weekend. Late week into
the weekend models continue to be divergent on their solutions for
the southwest Atlantic system. The good news is it appears the
system is further east than anticipated initially, which means the
odds of it staying well east of the forecast area are increasing.
Have maintained 30 to 50 percent PoPs for the forecast area the
weekend into early next week, but could see this being a bit
generous if these trends continue. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

NHC is initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico as the broad area of low pressure over
the Bay of Campeche remain favorable for development into a tropical
cyclone by midweek. The pressure gradient between this system and a
broad ridge of high pressure extending across the western Atlantic
and Eastern Seaboard will bring moderate to strong easterly to
southeasterly flow and building seas to our marine area through
early Thursday morning.

We added southern Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound to the Small
Craft Advisory starting 4 AM Tuesday and continuing through 7 PM
Wednesday for easterly winds of 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
possible. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our Gulf
marine zones from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Thursday for these same wind
speeds along with seas building to 6-9 feet. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  75  91  75  92  72  94 /  20  20  10  30  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   76  89  77  91  76  91  76  91 /  20  20  30  30  20  40  20  30
Destin      76  90  77  90  76  90  77  89 /  20  10  20  20  20  30  20  30
Evergreen   70  90  72  90  69  91  70  93 /  20   0   0   0   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  71  89  72  91  71  92  70  95 /  40  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      71  89  72  90  70  92  70  94 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   70  92  72  92  71  93  71  94 /  20  10   0  10   0  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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