862
FXUS64 KMOB 041745
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

  - Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday
    with the potential of localized flooding.

  - Sustained winds around 20 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots
    will be possible through today across the offshore Gulf
    waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until
    Midnight.

  - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents
    tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and
    the western Florida Panhandle.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A wet cold forecast remains on track with a band of beneficial
rainfall occurring just north of the I-10 corridor this morning.
This band should slowly track south and east towards the coast
over the next few hours with steady rain north of this band
persisting the remainder of the day. Some localized nuisance
flooding will be possible if this band sets up over the coastal
urban areas through the afternoon; however, given ongoing drought
conditions this rain should be primarily beneficial. Best chances
for any issues would be primarily the Mobile, Pensacola metros and
any low lying poor drainage barrier islands this afternoon. BB-8

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Deep west-southwesterly flow will bring abundant moisture into the
region today, with precipitable water (PWAT) values increasing to
1.5- 1.8 inches by this evening. An inverted surface trough will
advance from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf today,
followed by a surface low and warm front lifting north toward the
Florida Panhandle tonight. This surface low will then shift east
of the area Friday morning. Meanwhile, a series of upper level
impulses will traverse the region through the remainder of the
week, resulting in definite precipitation chances (pops) today
into the evening hours, followed by likely to definite pops late
this evening through Saturday. Embedded elevated non-severe
thunderstorms are expected south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor
today into the evening hours, followed by embedded thunderstorms
across much of the forecast area late this evening through around
noon on Friday. Primarily moderate rain is forecast Friday
afternoon through Saturday as the surface low shifts east of the
area. Our entire area is outlooked for a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall on Friday, and for areas southeast of the I-65
corridor on Saturday as there remains a signal for modest
probabilities for the potential of heavy rain. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are forecast for much of the area,
with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. The entire
system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a dry
period returning through the middle of next week.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today will increase to
MODERATE tonight through Friday night, and is expected to drop
back to LOW over the weekend. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

An area of isentropic upglide west of the Tombigbee/Mobile Bay will
gradually spread east through the afternoon, with low end MVFR or
lower conditions west of the river spreading east with. Drops in
conditions to LIFR are possible in heavier rain embedded in the
widespread rains. Operations are likely to be impacted area-wide.
Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 knots expected through the forecast.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 848 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Moderate to strong northeast to east winds this morning will
increase to strong this afternoon as an inverted surface trough
advances from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. A moderate
onshore flow is likely over the Gulf tonight as a surface low and
warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle, while winds
remain northeasterly to easterly over the bays and sounds. Winds
will then shift northerly on Friday in the wake of the departing
low pressure area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      54  46  56  47 / 100  80  70  70
Pensacola   58  51  61  52 /  90  80  90  80
Destin      59  52  66  53 /  80  80  90  80
Evergreen   52  43  56  44 /  90  90  80  70
Waynesboro  47  40  52  41 / 100  90  60  50
Camden      47  40  52  40 /  90  90  70  50
Crestview   53  45  60  48 /  90  90  90  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$