702
FXUS64 KMOB 271110
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
510 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across portions of the marine area through Friday
   morning, with another possible period from Friday night into
   Saturday morning.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches Saturday, then a high risk is anticipated for
   Saturday night and Sunday.

 - Low relative humidity values on Thursday and Friday along with
   the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire
   danger and will be monitored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Dry conditions are expected through Saturday with cool temperatures
through Friday followed by more seasonable values for Saturday. A
large upper trof evolves over the central states Friday night into
Saturday then ejects off across the interior eastern states
through Sunday night. An associated surface low lifts from the
central Plains to across the Great Lakes region and brings a cold
front through the forecast area on Sunday. There appears to be a
modest uptick in shear Saturday night as a series of shortwaves
progress across the area ahead of the frontal passage, but
instability for the most part looks to remain limited. Shear
values look low for Sunday and instability looks to remain
limited, so am not anticipating strong storm development at this
time. Will have mainly slight chance to good chance pops Saturday
night with chance to likely pops for Sunday which taper off to
slight chance pops Sunday night.

Another large upper trof meanwhile swings into the western half
of the CONUS then looks to progress across the eastern states
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, though with a fair amount of
uncertainty on the timing and evolution of this feature. A surface
low is anticipated to develop over the northwestern Gulf on
Monday. Depending on how the upper pattern plays out, the surface
low could progress across the southern portion of the forecast
area Monday night or pass across the marine area and eventually
move across the Florida peninsula Tuesday morning. Will continue
to monitor. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Monday with
likely pops for Monday night. Rain chances decrease to mostly
slight chance by Tuesday afternoon then dry conditions are
expected for Wednesday.

Highs on Thanksgiving range from the mid/upper 50s well inland to
around 60 closer to the coast, then lows Thanksgiving night range
from around 30 well inland to near 40 at the immediate coast.
Similarly cool temperatures are expected for Friday and Friday
night. Highs on Saturday range from near 60 well inland to the mid
60s near the coast, and lows Saturday night range from the lower
40s well inland to the mid/upper 50s at the coast. Highs on Sunday
range from the lower/mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the
coast, and lows Sunday night range from the upper 30s well inland
to around 50 at the coast. Highs on Monday and Tuesday mostly
range from the lower/mid 50s well inland to the lower 60s near
the coast with similar values for Wednesday. Lows Monday night
tend to range from around 40 well inland to around 50 at the
coast, then Tuesday night will range from around 30 well inland to
around 40 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected
through Friday night with a moderate risk for Saturday. A high
risk of rip currents follows for Saturday night and Sunday, then a
moderate risk is expected for Sunday night into Monday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR flight category prevails today into tonight across the region.
Winds will remain out of the north at around 10 knots, gusting
upwards of 20 knots at times through this afternoon. Winds relax
to 5 to 10 knots out of the north after sunset tonight. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish somewhat on Thursday.
The offshore flow strengthens Thursday night mainly over the open
Gulf waters, diminishes on Friday, then a moderate to strong
easterly flow develops Friday night. A light to moderate
southeasterly flow develops on Saturday then switches to the north
Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for Mobile Bay and the MS Sound until 8 am
Thursday, and for the near shore waters until 10 am Thursday. The
Small Craft Advisory continues for the 20-60 nm portion through
Friday morning, with a Small Craft Advisory also meanwhile in
effect for the near shore waters from 9 pm Thursday until 9 am
Friday. A moderate to strong easterly flow Friday night into
Saturday morning will need to be monitored for a possible Small
Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% for much of the
area on Thursday, and also on Friday mainly over south central
Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. At this time, the
Significant Fire Potential rating is low or less for both days.
The 20 ft wind speeds will be less than 15/16 mph for the most
part, but could reach these values over the coastal counties and
will need to monitor. Will mention the potential for elevated fire
danger due to low relative humidity and potentially breezy winds. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  36  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   60  41  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  41  58  43 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   60  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  57  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      55  30  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   60  32  57  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$