Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
063 FXUS64 KMOB 141116 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 616 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Overall a rather uneventful forecast with the only rain chances likely coming this weekend. High pressure over the central US today will dominate most of the forecast period as it slowly shifts eastward and amplifies through Friday. This will all be in response to a rather strong upper trough building over the western US. Dry and increasingly warmer conditions will likely continue through the work week before we see a change of pace. Expect highs to steadily climb into the mid to upper 80s. Moisture will steadily return by the end of the week as the upper ridge moves east of the area and southwesterly flow steadily increases in advance of the upper trough. Expect lows to slowly increase each night likely getting into the upper 60s to low 70s by Saturday. Rain chances arrive by the weekend as the rather deep upper trough progresses eastward. Guidance appears to be in decent agreement with some warm advection showers occurring on Saturday with the bulk of the rain occurring Saturday night into Sunday as a southern stream shortwave trough rounds the base of the much large trough. Overall not super concerned about any severe weather with this system; however, some rumbles of thunder and maybe a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. Given the rather quick progression of the trough and adjacent surface front, heavy rainfall should not be much of an issue and cooler/drier air should arrive rather quickly by early next week. Rip currents will be low through most of the week until they will rapidly increase to HIGH by the weekend as southerly flow strengthens Friday into Saturday. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A light offshore flow will prevail through Wednesday morning, with a more easterly flow developing Wednesday into Thursday morning. A light southeasterly to easterly flow will return Thursday afternoon, with winds gradually increasing out of the southeast late in the week along with building seas.BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 85 58 87 58 87 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 86 64 86 64 86 66 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 85 66 85 65 85 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 89 54 90 54 90 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 85 54 88 55 88 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 87 54 89 55 89 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 88 54 89 54 89 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob