266
FXUS64 KMOB 230424
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1024 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible Tuesday
   afternoon into Tuesday evening near and west of the I-65
   corridor.

 - A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the
   marine area Wednesday night through Thursday morning,
   potentially lingering into late week in the nearshore waters.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday
   and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A cold front presently moving across the area gradually ushers in
a drier forecast as we head into the rest of the day today
through Monday. Despite the cold front moving through, we will
continue to maintain above normal highs and lows across the area
with temperatures topping out in the middle to upper 70`s and
overnight lows in the upper 40`s to lower 50`s for most locations
tonight. We begin a warm advection regime Monday with lows Monday
night becoming well above normal in the lower to middle 60`s.

As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday an upper trough begins to
approach the region bringing unsettled weather once again to the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be
expected, particularly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A few
lingering showers and storms are possible Wednesday generally
near and east of the I-65 corridor. While exact details continue
to vary on the exact track of the leading shortwave Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, there still appears to be some
signal that at least areas near and west of the I-65 corridor
could see a low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Adequate CAPE and shear should be present for organized
thunderstorms, however the magnitude of forcing is the biggest
question mark at this point in time precluding much confidence in
the severe weather potential. Regardless, temperatures will remain
well above normal for Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the
middle to upper 70`s Tuesday and lower to middle 70`s Wednesday.

A strong cold front pushes across the area Wednesday bringing
with it a substantially colder and drier airmass. This front
should knock daytime highs down into the lower to middle 60`s
Thursday into Friday, with overnight lows dipping well below
normal into the upper 30`s and lower 40`s Wednesday night and
lower to middle 30`s Thursday night. Late week into the weekend
looks to shift back to a warm advection regime bringing warmer,
moister air into the area ahead of our next weather system late
weekend into the following week. A low risk of rip currents
continues through Monday night before becoming a Moderate risk
Tuesday into Wednesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Outside of localized patches of low stratus and fog reducing
ceiling/visibility to MVFR/IFR flight categories the expectation
is for VFR to MVFR flight category to prevail through the rest of
the night. A cold front moving across the area will gradually
allow for winds to shift out of the north through daybreak, with
winds increasing to around 5 knots after daybreak. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds shift northwesterly to northerly this morning in the wake
of a cold front. A southeasterly flow develops on Monday and
becomes southerly on Tuesday. Winds shift out of the northwest to
north on Wednesday as a cold front moves through with a moderate
to strong offshore flow for Wednesday night through Friday. A
Small Craft advisory may be needed for much of the marine waters
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with nearshore waters
potentially continuing to experience exercise caution to low end
advisory criteria winds through late week into the weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  58  77  54 /  20  20   0   0
Pensacola   80  63  77  58 /  10  20   0   0
Destin      78  63  77  59 /  10  20   0   0
Evergreen   83  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
Waynesboro  79  51  72  49 /  20   0   0   0
Camden      78  51  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
Crestview   83  57  79  48 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$