436
FXUS64 KMOB 062351
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
551 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

  - Additional rounds of light to moderate rain will occur over
    the weekend and mainly be focused near and southeast of the
    I-65 corridor.

  - A strong cold front makes passage across the area Sunday
    night into early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous marine
    conditions. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required
    for late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

06.12Z upper air analysis reflects a persistent west southwest
flow at high levels of which embedded in the flow is a steady
stream of clouds all the way from northern Mexico to across the
deep south to off the Mid-Atlantic. In the near term, passage of
subtle mid level impulses support bands of light, to perhaps
moderate rains moving through under a cool dome of high pressure
that moves east of the area through tonight. There is also an
indication that patchy fog will be developing late in the night
too as short range ensembles indicates an upward trend in
probabilities of occurrence more focused north of the coast. But
considering the uncertainties, went ahead and mentioned patchy
late night fog to the coast as well. A strong cold front is
progged to dive southward out of the Plains tonight and approach
the local area later in the day Sunday before making rapid passage
through the area Sunday night. Will maintain chances of rain
Sunday and Sunday night which will be ending from west to east
following the frontal passage. Rain-free Monday through
Wednesday. Daily highs mostly in the 55 to 60 degree range Monday
and Tuesday before moderating back into the upper 60`s/lower 70`s
by Thursday. Coldest nights this period Monday and Tuesday Nights.
Overnight lows Monday night plunge to freezing up along and north
of the US Highway 84 corridor. From there, lower to mid 30`s to
I-10 and upper 30`s to lower 40`s coast. Tuesday night mid 30`s
interior to lower to mid 40`s coast. Lows gradually moderate
Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Next frontal passage late in the week brings a brief return to rain
chances ahead of it. Following its passage, temperatures trend
downward to start the new weekend.

Rip current risk looks to be low through Wednesday. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Conditions have briefly improved to VFR for locations generally
west of I-65 with IFR ceilings elsewhere. Expect LIFR conditions
at all TAF sites by 06z and persisting through the pre-dawn hours
as patchy fog settles into the area. Another round of light to
moderate rain is anticipated on Sunday. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Offshore flow increases Sunday night continuing into Monday
following the passage of a strong cold front. Due to the northerly
fetch setup, higher seas in the 3 to 5 foot range look to be
developing in the 20 to 60 NM waters. Small craft advisory criteria
will likely be required for portions of area waters which would
include Mobile Bay and the open Gulf waters out 60 NM early Monday
morning into the day Monday. Winds decrease and seas subside by late
Monday night. Seas to 1 to 2 feet range by the middle of the next
week. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      46  66  48  58 /  20  30  50   0
Pensacola   51  64  51  59 /  50  40  60  10
Destin      51  65  52  62 /  60  50  60  10
Evergreen   41  62  44  58 /  10  20  50   0
Waynesboro  40  61  43  54 /  10  20  50   0
Camden      39  59  42  54 /   0  20  50   0
Crestview   45  62  46  59 /  40  40  50   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$