131
FXUS63 KMPX 040945
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-zero temperatures early this morning. Wind chills
as cold -20 to -25 across western MN.

- A clipper will bring the next chance of light snow Friday morning.
Minor accumulations possible.

- Another system will slide through the region Saturday and
  looks to bring a better chance of accumulating snow (greatest
  potential across southern MN).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

These cold temperatures sure could make one say, "Ope" on morning
like this. Surface obs reporting sub-zero temperatures areas wide
with wind chills ranging from -15 to -25 below zero. However good
news is is we start to warm up this morning all the way through
Friday.

A clipper which is embedded within parent northwesterly flow will
continue to track just off to the north and east of Minnesota`s
arrowhead region today which will increase southerly return flow
later this afternoon into the evening providing 20-25 mph
surface wind gusts. Given the low`s current track, much of the
warm advective precip field should remain confined to
Minnesota`s arrowhead region. However as we enter tonight, a
trailing cold front moves in from the Dakotas which increases
the threat of snowfall chances for the pre-dawn hours Friday
morning. Light snow is expected to move from west to east across
much of southern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities metro)
into western Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. Latest run of the
NBM continues to advertise low-end QPF amounts from this system.
Therefore, continued with the previous shift`s approach by
using WPC`s blend to help nudge up QPF slightly to a few
hundredths of an inch. By doing so, this results in another
fresh half-inch of snow for most locations come Friday morning.
Similar to Wednesday morning`s snowfall, the morning commute
could be potentially a slippery. PoPs were also increased above
60-70% values which align better with current forecast
thinking.


But wait there is more! Saturday morning the aforementioned parent
northwest flow ejects yet another shortwave into the northern
plains. This time, the wave is progged though the Dakotas into Iowa
which will allow for much of the southern half of Minnesota to
receive additional snowfall. The results from guidance continue to
favor the north/south "camp" results as mentioned in the previous
discussion. As of now, the latest snowfall accumulation map
advertises the potential of 2-3 inches across south-central MN into
northern Iowa. One thing to monitor though is if northern results
within guidance come to reality, snowfall totals could be increase
to a few inches or perhaps more south of the I-94 corridor.

After this low pressure vacates, Canadian high pressure follows in
tow funneling in colder air. Forecast temperatures will return to
the double to single digits below zero for lows on Sunday and Monday
morning. By early next week, if you missed the previous two
opportunities to see snow, you`ll get another chance here. The
pattern aloft remains active and will eject another system to impact
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Through warm advection and prior to precip
arrival, temperatures are expected to return to the upper 20 to low
30s. Given the warmer sfc environment and potentially warm air
aloft, this could bring concerns for mixed/freezing p-types. Still
lots can change between now and then but something to keep in mind
as we proceed through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

SKC continues through first half of the period until FEW/SCT250
by early afternoon. Winds turn light and variable overnights as
a high pressure moves overhead. Winds ramp up and turn to the
south by daybreak later this morning. Speeds 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 25kts possible across W MN. Stratus will begin to
build in the final few hours of the period. I`ve added MVFR cigs
to a few sites and low VFR to others.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind W 5-10kts.
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...BPH