215
FXUS63 KMPX 162054
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wintry mix likely across southern Minnesota Monday night
  into Tuesday morning. Precipitation to stay south of I-94.

- Increasing confidence for a narrow band of accumulating snow
  Monday night into Tuesday morning. Localized accumulation of a
  few inches possible along the MN River Valley. Exact
  placement remains uncertain.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Another pleasant late Fall day has unfolded across the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s with plenty of
sunshine and light winds. Satellite imagery reveals a broad area of
high clouds that are progged to slowly move into Minnesota from the
Dakotas overnight. Overnight lows fall into the low 30s and winds
turn calm. A complicated forecast begins for the Monday/Tuesday
period that will include rain & snow. A shortwave ejects into the
central Plains Monday and is forecast to move into the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Winds shift to the east-southeast on
Monday with temperatures warming back into the lower 40s. This will
lead to all initial precipitation falling as rain. Our shortwave`s
precipitation shield will slowly edge north into SW MN late Monday
afternoon and eventually into southern and central MN by Monday
night. A sharp cut off (gradient) is likely on the northern edge of
precipitation & there is increasing confidence that sets up
somewhere in the SW Twin Cities Metro. One change since yesterday is
the increased confidence of a narrow band of heavier precip. The
latest hi-res guidance advertises a band of heavier precipitation
setting up across southern Minnesota Monday night. While p-type
likely begins as rain, thermal profiles cool enough to transition to
a rain/snow mix, with locations under this heavier band turning to
all snow. There is no shortage of forcing with this band of precip
either. Cold air or the lack of cold air will be the limiting factor
for snow accumulations. There is some uncertainty as to what exactly
the thermal profile ends up as it`s razor thin for snow or rain...
most models maintain a fairly isothermal profile just cooler than
the 0c isotherm from the SFC up to 700mb or so. I suppose hi-res
models are half a degree C cooler above 850mb than global guidance
was yesterday - likely accounting for potential dynamic cooling
effects of heavier snow falling in the column. Unfortunately there
isn`t much dry air in this layer so the wet bulb temperature will
likely be the actual air temperature, limiting the room for how cool
the profile can get. There is potential for ice pellets to mix in
briefly too, but this is not a primary concern in the forecast at
this time. This leads to a messy scenario with snow ratios 7:1 to
9:1 range at the height of the event. Heavier snow rates could lead
to a quick, slushy accumulation of a few inches by Tuesday morning
before p-types mix back with rain as temperatures warm with sunrise.
Of course there is still uncertainty with the exact placement of
this feature with current guidance placing it along/near the MN
River Valley. Overall, more model solutions have trended to a more
snow dominated p-type Monday night despite the borderline thermal
profile. This makes sense all things considered. Hi-res guidance has
led to an increase in forecast confidence for higher, heavier QPF
amounts as alluded to earlier. QPF amounts of 0.50" to 0.75" are
likely under this band of heavier precip and I wouldn`t be surprised
to see some locations hit upwards of an inch. This is the added
benefit of having hi-res guidance in the forecast window. Travel
impacts are possible in the locations under the heaviest snow. The
combination of heavier snow rates & snow falling at night could lead
to accumulation on both grassy and paved surfaces. The limiting
factor will be that surface air temperatures hovering around 32f
(freezing). Given this complex forecast - it`s safe to expect finer
scale details to change over the next day. A half of degree could be
the difference between 2 inches of wet snow or a cold November rain.
It`s important to keep up to date with the latest forecast
information. We will work to refine the northern gradient cutoff,
the placement of the heaviest precipitation, and the snowfall &
rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours.

Precipitation tapers off by mid-morning Tuesday, leaving dry &
seasonable weather behind it through the remainder of the work week.
Highs will be in the lower 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Our confidence on the late week system remains low,
but it`s beginning to appear that it should stay south of our
forecast area. The latest EURO struggles to maintain an organized
sfc low as it moves northeast and shears out while the GFS doesn`t
really phase into anything organized at all. Ensembles do not offer
much chance for light QPF this far out either, supporting the
southern track and/or weaker system. Dry & seasonably warm
temperatures are likely to continue through the weekend with no
sustained cold air forecast yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A deck of low VFR stratus is slowly spreading east from the
Dakotas this afternoon, already reaching KRWF. At the same time,
high level clouds are beginning to fill in across the same area.
Northwest winds continue AOB 10 kts today, becoming light and
variable overnight. Winds then shift out of the E/SE by tomorrow
morning.

KMSP...There are some models indicating that rain could develop
as early as tomorrow afternoon (around 20z), though forecast
soundings look too dry for anything to reach the ground. It is
more likely that the onset of precipitation (potentially a mix
of rain and snow) is not until tomorrow evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, -RASN/MVFR early. Wind E 5-10kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind SE 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE to NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BED