290
FXUS63 KMQT 152004
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
304 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today through Sunday, especially along the Keweenaw and
  near Lake Superior. Northwest gales to around 35 knots are
  expected over central/eastern Lake Superior this afternoon
  through Sunday.

- Lake effect snow showers return to the northwest wind
  snowbelts tonight into Sunday morning and continue through
  early next week, mainly in the eastern UP.

- Confidence is increasing that dominant lake effect snowbands
  will provide impactful snowfall to portions of Luce,
  Chippewa, and Mackinac counties. A Winter Weather Advisory has
  been issued for these counties tonight through Monday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Afternoon GOES satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies overhead
the UP and Lake Superior as a ~992 mb sfc low north of Lake Huron
continues its eastward journey through Ontario. Strong cold air
advection behind the surface cold front has increased NW flow across
the area, supporting gusts 20-30 mph inland and 30 to 40 mph in the
Keweenaw and Lake Superior shorelines. Despite the passing sfc cold
front, daytime temps have managed to punch into the low to even mid
50s this afternoon. Temperatures tonight begin to drop to the upper
20s.

As Upper Michigan becomes placed between troughing overhead the
Atlantic and a building ridge in the High Plains, continued chilly
NW flow will help 850 mb temperatures begin to fall tonight through
Sunday, reaching roughly -9 to -11C by tomorrow afternoon. This will
support an increase in lake effect snow across the NW wind snowbelts
late tonight. Model soundings depict notable dry air within the DGZ
and sub-cloud layer in the western half of the UP, thus shutting off
lake effect snow potential. In the east, the long NW fetch across
Lake Superior and potentially Lake Nipigon preconditioning is slated
to kick off lake effect snow bands from Munising eastward. There is
good CAM agreement in a dominant lake effect snow band with lake
induced inversion heights upwards of 7-10 kft persisting in the
vicinity of Luce/Chip counties through Monday. However, there is
some question about weather antecedent dry air, both sub-cloud and
within the DGZ, may limit snowfall rates. The latest HREF supports
this idea, suggesting low probabilities (<25%) chance for 1"/hr
rates. 6hr QPF amounts 0.1-0.2" coupled with SLRs near 15:1 result
in 6 hourly snowfall amounts in Luce/Chip co around 1-3" from
tomorrow morning through Monday morning, totaling ~2-7", with the
greatest snowfall amounts closer to the Luce/Chip SE border. This
bullseye can easily shift depending on the band`s convergence into
the eastern UP. For these reasons, opting to hoist a Winter Weather
Advisory for Luce County (Chippewa and Mackinac counties included by
neighboring WFO APX) from midnight tonight through Monday morning.
If sublimation via dry air is overcome by lake moisture and
persistent dominant banding in one area, would not be surprised to
see locally higher amounts. Additionally, gusty winds 30-40 mph,
strongest near the lake, under strong lake effect snowbands will
drastically reduce visibility at times, so take it slow should you
encounter these conditions.

Lake effect snow briefly shifts west into Alger/Schoolcraft Co early
Monday before tapering off as sfc high pressure overhead supports
drier air advection, lowering lake inversion heights and reducing
wind speeds through the column. Heading into the rest of the
workweek, benign low impact weather remains in the forecast. Zonal
flow aloft supports more moderating temps in the upper 30s and low
40s. Global forecast guidance suggests a weak shortwave skirting
south of the UP late Tuesday, keeping synoptic precip out of the
area. High pressure dominates through the midweek. The next shot at
reasonable precipitation returns this coming weekend, though at this
time confidence is low as long range guidance is still coming into
agreement on the placement and strength of a low moving through the
Lower Lakes Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR is primarily expected during the 18Z TAF period, however
increasing lake effect cloud cover this evening returns low end VFR
to possibly high end MVFR cigs late tonight into Sunday (20-40%
chance for MVFR cigs, lowest chances at IWD). That said, no precip
is expected at any of the sites. Otherwise, the main impact will be
the elevated winds in the wake of the cold front. Northwest winds
between 15-20 kts are expected (IWD closer to 10-15 kts tonight and
Sunday), with frequent gusts into the 20-30 kt range. There is a
moderate (30-60%) chance for higher gusts up to 35 kts at CMX
through this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Impactful marine weather remains in the forecast as chilly NW flow
carries Gales of 35-40 kts through tomorrow. NW gales 35-40 kts have
already been seen across the east and central lake with a few high
based platforms observing 40-45 kts. guidance continues to suggest
this will be common through the rest of today before a brief lull
early tomorrow morning. A reinforced shot of cold air will then
again continue NW gales through Sunday evening before tapering down
below 35 kts across the east half of the lake by Midnight on Monday.
Significant wave heights will build between 7 and 13 feet, with the
highest waves seen along the eastern UP shorelines tonight. Waves
begin to lessen below 7-10 feet early Monday. Additionally, while
widespread Gales are not expected in the west half of the lake, a
Gale Warning has been introduced for the north shores of Lake
Superior between Grand Portage and Taconite Harbor where winds
running down the terrain may accelerate to Gale force gusts of 35
kts tonight.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
     Monday for MIZ007.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LSZ265.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW