183
FXUS66 KMTR 160008
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
408 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Light rain spreading across the region from south to north
   today. Highest totals from Monterey Bay southward, less than an
   inch further north.

 - Next system on track for late Sunday with a strong cold front
   and a period of moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Monday
   morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday morning.

 - Drier Tuesday with chilly temperatures through the rest of the
   week. Next rain chance Thursday, details uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(This evening through Sunday)

Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will
continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around
moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier
rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the
Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through
tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all
of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in-
all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals
so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south
where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of
writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big
Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay.
These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening.
Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur
coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern
Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area,
and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025
(Sunday night through next Friday)

We don`t really get much of a break on Sunday before the next
system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase
late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast
associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW.
Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics
this past Friday`s system in terms of amounts, with the typical
terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall
looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning
before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of
0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher
elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2".
Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big
Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during
this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded
thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post-
frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential
threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally
gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes.

Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly
temperatures. We aren`t seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now,
but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning
lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next
rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is
tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 407 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. Rain showers will
continue to stream northwards over the next few hours before
stratiform rain takes over. North Bay terminals will be on the edge
of this, so conditions may be more in the realm of VCSH up there.
Winds will generally back through the TAF period. MVFR conditions
will prevail through most of the TAF period once rain showers
transition to stratiform rain. Conditions may deteriorate below MVFR
if a moderate to heavy rain shower develops over the terminal.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Rain
showers will continue to stream northward towards the terminal,
giving way to steady rain by tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected to
prevail once the stratiform rain arrives. Winds will back through
the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northerly flow at SNS. Rain showers will increase
in coverage and intensity over the next few hours, giving way to
stratiform rainfall. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 407 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

Scattered light rain will persist for the remainder of tonight
through Sunday afternoon especially over the southern outer
waters with hazardous boating conditions. Expect moderate to fresh
north to NW winds and moderate seas up to 8 feet. Sunday night
will see a cold front push through the northern outer waters and
gradually spread south across our entire area into early Monday
morning, bringing near gale force northerly winds, quickly
building to very rough seas by early Monday morning. Conditions
will gradually improve Tuesday into Wednesday. Very high west-
northwesterly swell and hazardous seas return late next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...JM

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