071
FXUS64 KOHX 221229
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Quiet weekend ahead with above normal temperatures.

- Another high chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night
  through Tuesday.

- Temperatures turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Rains have exited Middle TN and in their wake, plenty of clouds
remain. In fact, further cloudiness will continue to seep into the
area from KY over the next several hours and while a few will see
some sun, it may not be until later this afternoon until most do.
Bottom line, no more rain until Monday evening with temperatures
above normal until a frontal passage on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Clouds have blanketed the skies over Middle Tennessee this evening.
A line of storms is approaching Stewart county currently, this will
be our severe threat for the evening. A marginal risk (level 1 out
of 5) but still something to watch, especially being an overnight
risk. We`re pretty saturated, however, and cloud cover has been an
issue all day. See the Mesoscale update for more information on the
threat specifically.

Lows tonight will be a bit warmer: closer to 60 degrees and the
upper 50s. Once the cold front moves through Saturday, temperatures
will drop into the 40s for lows. Not much of a difference for highs
post-frontal, but the airmass should feel drier which will help it
feel cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy fog will continue to be a threat through the beginning of the
work week in the morning hours, so use caution on your commutes.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives in the forecast
beginning Monday morning. A low pressure system looks to pass to our
north, with a cold front extending south into the midstate.
Currently, it`s hard to say if there will be any severe weather with
this system, but it doesn`t look promising right now. More on the
marginal side in the guidance if anything, thanks to weak CAPE and
paltry lapse rates continuing to be the norm in forecast soundings
across the area. A high pressure system moves in after this system,
leaving dry conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday. The cold front
with the aforementioned low looks to be stronger, with low
temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

FROPA has occurred at CKV, BNA, and MQY, with the front now near
SRB and CSV. Some lingering SHRA is near SRB and CSV currently.

MVFR cigs are the main theme for the day with post-frontal
stratus moving south from KY and transition to NW winds at 5-10
kts through the afternoon. There`s a low chance for IFR cigs
through the morning, but favored ceilings above 010 for now. Some
guidance is hovering near IFR cigs toward the end of the period so
will reassess at 18z issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  45  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    64  42  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     67  42  61  37 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       72  45  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     67  45  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      65  43  59  37 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   72  46  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   71  45  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        65  43  64  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Sizemore