182
FXUS64 KOHX 021742
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1142 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Low risk of freezing fog tonight. Please monitor this for the
  Wednesday morning commute.

- Rain chances return Thursday night. Very low chance of
  rain/freezing rain across our southern counties, closer to the
  Alabama state line early Friday morning.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Rains have exited Middle TN this morning and in their wake, plenty
of clouds remain and it looks like this is going to be the case
until tomorrow morning. That means it`s gonna be a chilly sun-less
day across the mid-state. While the front is all the way through the
area, we are getting a report or two of drizzle with a few
snowflakes being squeezed out of these clouds, especially across our
southern and Plateau counties. This may be the case through the
morning hours, but they won`t amount to much. Look for highs to
struggle to reach 40 anywhere in the area this afternoon.

Tonight, because of how saturated the ground is and with tiny dew
point depressions, some fog is possible. Coupled with overnight lows
in the low to mid 20s, there is a low concern for freezing fog.
Remember, for fog to rime on surfaces like bridges and overpasses,
it needs to be pretty thick -- like 1/4 to 1/2 mile. There`s two
places this could occur. First, the Plateau (which isn`t a big
surprise) and second, areas west of I-65. However, this will require
clouds to break up to allow for dense fog to develop. We`ll monitor
the cloud trends this afternoon. Just keep this in mind for the
Wednesday morning commute. Clouds and any fog should start to break
up Wednesday after sunrise and the sun is expected to return with
highs about 10 degrees warmer than today but still about 10 degrees
below seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Our next chance for precipitation enters the picture Thursday night.
An initial glance at the setup had me worried about an overrunning
scenario where rain moves in from the south with surface
temperatures at or below freezing causing freezing rain.
Fortunately, after looking at forecast soundings, this doesn`t look
to be the case. We`ve got a pretty deep layer of warm air and
surface temperatures should remain above freezing. That said, one or
two models are spitting out a hundreths or two of freezing rain
across our southern tier of counties, so it`s something we`ll have
to monitor over the next 48 to 60 hours. Shy of that, a cold rain
will envelop Middle TN Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall totals
are fairly light at 0.25-0.30" or less through early Friday
afternoon.

The rest of the forecast revolves around multiple chances for light
rain and pretty chilly temperatures. Sunday is the first of those,
with Monday morning presenting an opportunity to squeeze out some
flakes on the backside of the system. If it happens, it`ll likely be
one of those Plateau-centered light snows. However, lots can change
in 6 days. For now, we can expect for temperatures to remain below
normal and rainfall to be below normal, as well over the next 6-10
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overcast stretches over a large region surrounding Middle
Tennessee, so MVFR cigs will persist at BNA, MQY, and CKV through
the rest of the day with NW winds 5-10 kts. IFR cigs still
persist at SRB and CSV this afternoon.

Somewhat of a low confidence TAF overnight due to cloud cover.
IFR cigs are likely at all terminals after 03z and that`s the
prevailing theme. However, should any pockets of clearing occur,
fog development is possible. With temperatures in the 20s
overnight this could result in FZFG. Highest confidence for FZFG
is SRB and CSV at this time. BNA, MQY, and CKV have been left at
MVFR vis with just a mention of patchy fog (BCFG). Any IFR/LIFR
cats overnight would generally improve 14-15z tomorrow with trend
toward VFR after ~16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  25  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    35  21  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     38  23  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       39  23  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     37  23  45  28 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      36  23  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   39  22  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   38  23  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        36  22  44  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Sizemore