225
FXUS64 KOHX 231748
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1148 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night through Tuesday.
  Low chance for severe weather, mainly south of I-40.

- Drier and much cooler Wednesday through Friday with widespread
  sub-freezing temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

- Gradual warming into the weekend with low to medium rain chances
  returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Broad northwesterly flow aloft is situated across the region along
with a surface high pressure now centering near the Tennessee
Valley. Dry, stable weather will result today with temperatures in
the upper 50s to the mid 60s. We`ll watch for fog/low cloud
development again tonight as well.

High pressure will progress east tomorrow which will coincide
with height rises and southerly low-level flow. Temperatures and
moisture values will rise slightly along with an increase in cloud
cover as a shortwave approaches the lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
Some rain showers are possible east of I-65 tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An upper-low currently situated near the Four Corners is projected
to advance toward our region Monday night. This coincides with
increasing temperatures and moisture values previously described.
Chances for rain showers will continue to increase across Middle
Tennessee Monday night owing to increasing warm, moist advection
and a low-level jet. Rain showers, and a few thunderstorms will be
quite widespread along/ahead of the advancing cold front set to
move across the area Tuesday morning. Despite favorable deep-layer
wind shear and forcing, instability looks very meager across the
area Monday night due to limited moisture return in the boundary
layer. However, some increase in pre-frontal instability is
possible Tuesday morning/afternoon with heating. Should frontal
forcing still be around by then we could see a strong/severe
thunderstorm. At this time best chances are generally south of
I-40, but forecast details will become a little more clear with
new hi-res guidance.

After the exit of this storm system on Tuesday, medium-range
guidance continues to predict a longwave trough and associated
Canadian high pressure overtaking much of the central and eastern
CONUS mid to late week. This will favor drier and much cooler
weather. In fact, widespread sub-freezing temperatures are
forecast Wednesday and Thursday nights. Gradual warming and height
rises should occur into the weekend. Low to medium rain chances
then return to the area with southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low CIG and VIS have improved from this morning, leaving behind
VFR conditions across all terminals. VFR conditions are expected
through the remainder of today before low CIG build back in from
the NW tonight. Right now bringing IFR-LIFR conditions after 00Z
west of the Plateau (CKV/BNA/MQY). VIS restrictions will be a
little more difficult to nail down. Confidence is generally low on
if terminals will see any reduced visibility, but greatest
confidence is across NW Middle TN, including CKV. Winds shift to
the SE after 12z Monday and VFR conditions return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  44  69  58 /   0   0  20 100
Clarksville    62  42  65  55 /   0   0  40  90
Crossville     61  39  63  51 /   0   0   0  90
Columbia       65  42  71  56 /   0   0  20  90
Cookeville     61  41  66  54 /   0   0   0 100
Jamestown      59  39  65  52 /   0   0   0 100
Lawrenceburg   65  41  71  57 /   0   0  10  90
Murfreesboro   64  41  71  57 /   0   0  10  90
Waverly        62  43  66  54 /   0   0  40  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Cravens