310
FXUS64 KOHX 071712
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1112 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

- Medium to high probability (50-90%) for showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is a slight
  risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across much of Middle
  Tennessee mainly for damaging winds, with a lesser threat of
  large hail and tornadoes.

- High probability for a widespread hard freeze Sunday and Monday
  nights. Low to medium chance (20-50%) for light snow
  accumulation on the Plateau early Monday morning.

- Temperatures closer to near-normal values returning mid next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 948 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Shortwave trough over the Midwest and associated cold front
continue working their way eastward, and will pave the way for
showers and thunderstorms starting in the early afternoon and
continuing into the evening hours. CAMs continue to show initially
isolated storms developing early this afternoon and becoming more
linear as the afternoon continues. Instability remains in the 500
up to 1000 J/kg possible as long as dewpoints hold in the low 60s.
Deep layer shear remains strong, with values around 50 to 60
knots. Primary threat with any stronger storms that develop will
be damaging wind gusts, especially within any bowing structures in
the line of storms. Can not rule out a tornado or two as 0-1km
shear remains above 20 knots and 0-3km helicity is around 300
m2/s2. CAMs do show storms ahead of the main instability/shear
axis, but the storms mid afternoon through the mid evening or so
are more anchored to the axis, and that remains the best time to
see any strong to severe storms across the area.

Storms should be out of the mid state after midnight, and the
rainfall/cooler temps will allow for fog development into Saturday
morning. Despite the cold front, Saturday should be drier during
the day and warm with highs around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 948 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Sunday is when the forecast will take a drastic change. A much
stronger upper level trough and cold front will move through
Sunday, dropping temperatures quickly, especially after sunset.
Highs Sunday will only be in the 40s and 50s, with lows plummeting
to the 20s by Monday morning. With lingering moisture around, the
Plateau looks to be able to squeeze out a bit of that for some
snow accumulation late Sunday night into Monday morning. Right now
models are showing a few tenths to maybe a half inch of snow on
the northern Plateau, and possibly some flurries elsewhere. Will
continue to keep an eye on the snow potential but right now it`s
not looking too impactful. The cold temperatures will continue
Monday with highs in the 30s on the Plateau and around 40
elsewhere. As the trough moves out Tuesday into later in the week,
temperatures will rebound, and high temps will be back in the 60s
Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A messy TAF period is expected as showers & thunderstorms develop
across Middle TN through this evening. Ongoing isolated activity
will become more scattered through the afternoon and evening
hours. Highest confidence in thunderstorms are at CKV, BNA, and
MQY so upgraded the previous PROB30 groups to TEMPOs. Confidence
in thunderstorms is lower at CSV and SRB so thus maintained the
PROB30 groups. Showers and storms should come to an end between
02Z and 05Z. Thereafter, the main aviation concern will be fog and
low stratus overnight. Highest confidence in IFR to LIFR
conditions is at CSV and SRB with patchy fog and MVFR visibilities
spreading west to MQY and BNA. Conditions should improve back to
VFR areawide between 13Z and 15Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  73  44 /  80  60   0  30
Clarksville    71  47  72  42 /  70  20   0  20
Crossville     65  49  67  42 /  60  90   0  40
Columbia       73  53  73  44 /  70  60   0  20
Cookeville     68  52  68  43 /  80  80   0  40
Jamestown      66  48  66  42 /  80  90   0  40
Lawrenceburg   71  53  73  44 /  60  70   0  20
Murfreesboro   71  54  73  45 /  80  70   0  30
Waverly        68  48  70  41 /  70  30   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Clements