579
FXUS64 KOHX 241115
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
515 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. Monday for
  northern and northwest Middle Tennessee.

- Showers and thunderstorms will become likely Monday night and
  Tuesday. There is a very low chance of severe storms early
  Tuesday, mainly south of I-40.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 935 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for northern and northwest
portions of Middle Tennessee until 10 a.m. Monday. A swath of
dense fog and low stratus has crept into northwest Middle
Tennessee, and is likely to expand further into the mid state.
Widespread visibilities of 1/4 mile or less are expected in the
advisory area. Synoptically, surface high pressure and an upper
ridge will slide across the region overnight and early Monday,
which will set us up with some return flow just ahead of an
approaching low pressure system that is currently gathering steam
over the Great Plains. As this system tracks toward the east, we
can expect showers to begin spreading into Middle Tennessee late
tomorrow and certainly tomorrow evening. Some convective
development is also possible late Monday night and early Tuesday
as a pre-frontal trough provides some additional forcing. There is
a marginal risk of severe storms for early Tuesday in areas south
of I-40, but it appears that the best chance for any sort of wind
threat will remain south of Middle Tennessee. QPF totals from
Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening range from less than 3/4"
near the TN/KY line to more than 1" near the TN/AL line, and the
19Z NBM is giving a 64% probability of at least 1" of rainfall at
BNA Monday night and Tuesday. The actual cold fropa is likely to
occur late Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with significantly cooler
temperatures filtering in behind the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 935 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Temperatures are going to nosedive just in time for Thanksgiving.
Minimum temperatures Thursday morning will likely fall into the
mid 20s to low 30s, and in the 20s across all of Middle Tennessee
Friday morning before we start to warm back up. The next active
weather system looks to bring rain to Middle Tennessee beginning
Saturday or Saturday night, and continuing into the following
week. At this time, the 19Z NBM is hinting at a significant, days-
long rainfall event that definitely warrants keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VLIFR cats have inundated most of our terminals this morning.
These conditions will continue until 14-15Z when cats should start
to improve. VFR should return before 16Z. Look for showers to
start nearing CKV/BNA/MQY around 00-02Z this evening with
southerly winds becoming gusty by 06-08Z. Lower cigs should hold
off until after 07Z/Tue with the rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  58  71  48 /  20  90  80  40
Clarksville    66  56  70  43 /  40  90  80  30
Crossville     64  52  63  44 /   0  80 100  90
Columbia       70  57  72  46 /  20  90  90  40
Cookeville     67  54  66  46 /  10  90 100  70
Jamestown      64  52  65  45 /   0  80 100  70
Lawrenceburg   71  57  70  48 /  10  90 100  40
Murfreesboro   71  57  70  48 /  20  90 100  40
Waverly        66  54  69  43 /  40  90  80  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TNZ005>011-
023>031-033-056-057-059-062.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger