807
FXUS64 KOHX 011137
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

- High chance for showers starting late this afternoon and lasting
  through Sunday afternoon. Low chance for thunder.

- Dry most of next week.

- Temperatures below normal through Monday, gradual warming trend
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

While tomorrow night`s time change might be more impactful, the
big story of this forecast package is weekend rain. The large,
upper level low that will be responsible for said rain is already
starting to ramp up over the midwest U.S. and by midday Saturday
rain should be on our doorstep. Forecast soundings continue to be
less than impressive with double digit CAPE, saturated profiles
and only shear enough for a few rumbles of thunder. The best
chance for thunder may only be for a few hours Sunday morning as
the core of the upper low is overhead and in the end, it won`t be
impactful. Needless to say, no severe weather will accompany this
system and really, rainfall totals might actually be a bit paltry.
Current QPFs are less than a half inch, which isn`t much of a
surprise considering PWs are less than an inch. Here`s what`s a
little more interesting: rains could be with us through Sunday
afternoon as this system occludes Sunday morning and keeps medium
to high rain chances for at least the east half of the mid-state.
However, by Sunday evening the spigot should be turned off
completely -- and for several days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Long range guidance has been persistent for the last couple of
nights now, showing dry conditions through most of next week and
zonal flow to weak ridging developing over the region. Because of
this, afternoon temperatures should climb a couple of degrees above
seasonal norms by Wednesday and stick with us for a couple of days.
Of course, this is ahead of our next weather maker due in here
Friday or Friday night. A quick look at forecast soundings suggest
this system will be worth watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place through today with thick mid
level cigs developing around 10 kft then gradually lowering to 5
kft and possibly producing a few sprinkles. Conditions will
continue to lower tonight, down to MVFR for most areas as
sprinkles increase to sustained light rain. Winds will generally
be light and mainly from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  43  54  39 /  40  80  40   0
Clarksville    60  40  54  36 /  70  90  20   0
Crossville     57  41  52  36 /  20  60  50  10
Columbia       63  41  53  35 /  30  70  40   0
Cookeville     58  42  52  39 /  20  70  60  10
Jamestown      57  42  53  37 /  20  80  50  10
Lawrenceburg   62  41  52  35 /  20  70  50   0
Murfreesboro   63  43  54  38 /  30  80  60   0
Waverly        61  38  53  35 /  70  90  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13