147
FXUS64 KOHX 152341
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
541 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

- A little warmer each day with more unsettled weather by mid-
  week.

- High chance for rain and a few storms on Thursday. Severe
  weather is not currently expected.

- Following a brief cool-down at week`s end, temperatures will
  warm right back up and look to stay above seasonal norms at
  least through the Christmas holiday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Surface high pressure has shifted to the east and south of Middle
Tennessee, so we are enjoying a blessed S/SW flow, and a welcome
warming trend is already underway. Temperatures will slip back
into the 20s tonight, but we look to soar into the upper 40s to
low 50s tomorrow, with even warmer weather awaiting on Wednesday
and Thursday. In the meantime, the atmosphere across Middle
Tennessee remains bone-dry, so there aren`t any rain chances
anytime soon. The current forecast appears to be on track, so no
changes are planned for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

With heights rising as upper ridging builds in, and the surface high
sliding off to the east,  dry conditions can be expected through
Tuesday and gradual warming will commence. While not as frigid as
last night, tonight will still be cold with lows generally in the
lower to mid 20s. Tuesday will see highs not far either side of 50
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Mid-level flow will transition out of the southwest by mid-week,
setting the stage for a more unsettled end to the week. A weak
upper disturbance will bring a low chance for light rain to the
area, but then a more robust system will take shape by Thursday
bringing higher rain chances to all of Middle TN. The last few
packages there has been discussion of the probability for severe
weather with this system given its dynamic nature, and thankfully
things continue to trend unfavorably for severe storms. While
shear will be high, the NBM and LREF probabilities for 200 J/kg or
greater of surface-based instability continue to be less than
20%. Probabilities for 100 J/kg are a bit higher, approaching 50%,
mainly over southern and western counties. The scenario models
are currently depicting is a developing warm front moving from the
south that looks to overspread the area with showers late
Wednesday night into early Thursday. The cold front itself will
stem from a surface low near the Great Lakes that will approach
from the west later in the day, bringing more focused showers and
possibly storms depending on the amount of instability. With this
still being a few days out, it will warrant continued scrutiny to
see how things evolve, but as of right now, severe chances remain
low. It does appear it will bring a decent rain to the area, with
current QPF values generally ranging from 0.50-0.90". We`ll see a
15-20 degree drop in temperatures behind the cold front with highs
only making it to the 40s most locations on Friday. Temperatures
rebound quickly heading into the weekend as we fall under zonal
flow aloft. Saturday looks dry, then weak disturbances moving
through the flow that models typically struggle to time well that
far out will bring low to medium chances for rain to the forecast
for the Saturday night through Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Surface high pressure has already slipped to the east of Middle
Tennessee, so we can enjoy VFR wx and a S/SW breeze thru the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      24  52  36  54 /   0   0  10  20
Clarksville    23  50  36  53 /   0   0  20  20
Crossville     23  49  33  51 /   0   0   0  20
Columbia       22  51  36  54 /   0   0  10  20
Cookeville     23  48  34  51 /   0   0  10  20
Jamestown      23  49  33  50 /   0   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   22  50  35  54 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   22  51  36  54 /   0   0  10  20
Waverly        24  48  36  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION.....Rose