802
FXUS64 KOHX 231237
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. Low
  chance for severe storms.

- Dry weather Wednesday through the late weekend.

- Temperatures turn cold Wednesday night, ahead of Thanksgiving
  Day. High chance (80-95%) for temperatures to reach 30 degrees
  or less by Thursday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Stubborn clouds have held on overnight and while a little clearing
was seen in our northwest, fog filled in quickly. Expectations are
for the fog to lift in the next couple of hours, then clouds
should start to dissipate mid-morning. This will leave us with
sunny skies and temperatures are still going to climb above
seasonal norms by a few degrees. Looking ahead to tomorrow night,
initial scouring of forecast soundings reveal very little to no
instability, but we`ll have to see what the next 24-36 hours
brings. Monday night`s system is very dynamic, which could lead to
at least some surge of moisture. More to come...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The stratus deck has settled in for the night across Middle
Tennessee. The northern line of the deck is very close to the TN/KY
border. For those locations that happen to remain clear, areas of
fog, possibly dense, will likely form. The northern edge of the deck
is not expected to make much progress southward through the rest
of the overnight hours. Those clouds are expected to scatter
through the morning as subsidence increases as surface high slides
into the area. It should be pleasant in the afternoon with light
winds, sunshine, and temperatures in the 60s. The dry weather will
continue on Monday as the surface high moves away from the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Our next chance of rain will be Monday night and Tuesday as a
weakening shortwave moves out the central plains into the Midwest.
Some embedded storms will be possible Monday night and Tuesday, but
models continue to keep the notable instability south of the area.
We`ll continue to keep an eye on that as the dynamics of the system
are not lacking. Showers will slowly end from west to east Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will be on the heels of
the shower activity with fropa occuring after midnight into
Wednesday morning.

Noticeably cooler air will settle into the region on Wednesday with
highs only in the 50s. If you are getting up early for your
Thanksgiving cooking, it will be chilly! Lows Thursday morning will
be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The cooler air mass will remain in
place through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low cloud deck continues to hamper flight conditions across Middle
TN. CSV/SRB are starting to come out of it and should be VFR very
soon. BNA/MQY remain MVFR but should return to VFR 15-16Z. CKV
has been catching the brunt of it and while clouds cleared out
several hours ago, vis is VLIFR. Conditions should improve there
by 14Z. More VLIFR fog tonight for CKV expected by 05Z/Mon. Low
confidence for other mid-state sites. Winds will be light and
northerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  43  68  58 /   0   0  30  90
Clarksville    63  42  66  56 /   0   0  70 100
Crossville     61  38  63  51 /   0   0   0  70
Columbia       65  42  69  56 /   0   0  30  90
Cookeville     61  40  66  53 /   0   0   0  80
Jamestown      60  38  63  51 /   0   0   0  70
Lawrenceburg   64  42  69  56 /   0   0  20  80
Murfreesboro   64  41  69  56 /   0   0  20  80
Waverly        63  44  66  54 /   0   0  50 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Unger