013
FXUS64 KOHX 041800
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the
  Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10" and
  snow accumulations up to an inch.

- Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN
  this evening from roughly 6PM-2AM. Some slick spots may develop
  tonight. Be cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state.

- Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

It`s a cold, cloudy day across middle Tennessee. Moisture from an
inverted trough along the Gulf Coast will provide our rain this
afternoon and evening, with timing looking to start around 3PM. As
this rain continues to linger across the mid-state, cold air will
begin to mix with the rain, leading to wintry mix in areas along
and north of I-40. Trend with this system continue to go up, which
lends to more confidence in wintry and mixed precipitation
occurring.

Diving into specifics, it looks like all modes of wintry
precipitation will be possible overnight. Freezing rain
probabilities continue to increase on the cumberland plateau, where
the winter weather advisory has been in place. The second area
freezing rain probabilities continue to rise is in the intersection
of Williamson, Dickson, and Hickman counties. Probabilities for
freezing rain are less here than on the plateau, but still a notable
increase for the surrounding areas. As of now, probabilities for
>0.01" of freezing rain are up to 70-80% on the Cumberland Plateau,
30-50% in that eastern hot spot I mentioned earlier, and 10-30% on
the I-40 corridor in between. If we bump that up to a tenth of an
inch, 30-50% probability of seeing over 0.1" on the Plateau, 10-20%
chance in the west, and <20% in between. Thankfully, there are no
probabilities for exceeding a quarter of an inch of ice in Middle
Tennessee. As for snow, the greatest chance of seeing accumulating
snow over half an inch is on the Cumberland plateau in the winter
weather advisory. That area could see up to one inch of snow by
tomorrow morning.

Friday morning, precipitation ends and temperatures will warm into
the 40s, which will help with travel conditions across the mid-
state. Once we get into Friday, the day should be relatively quiet
in the aftermath of this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Saturday will be dry but cloudy as the next system approaches on
Sunday. Widespread low rain chances overspread the mid-state, with
more cold air following behind it. Could see some wrap around
snowflakes on Monday, but those chances are low and the
accumulations would be nothing. Warmth will return into next week,
with highs in the 50s expected mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Light rain will push in from the west after 22z with rain, snow,
and freezing rain mixing in along and north of I-40 and over the
Plateau. Precipitation will exit from west to east 7z to 11z.
Light snow accumulation of less than 0.50" will be possible along
and north of I-40 with light ice accumulation of up to 0.05"
mainly over the Plateau. MVFR cigs build in from west to east
later this afternoon into the evening with them continuing to
lower to IFR/LIFR after 02z. Cigs will slowly come rise during the
morning after 16z. Light northerly winds under 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      43  32  45  31 /  40  70   0   0
Clarksville    38  26  44  28 /  30  30   0   0
Crossville     42  31  43  32 /  20  90  10   0
Columbia       44  32  45  30 /  50  90   0   0
Cookeville     41  32  43  31 /  30  80  10   0
Jamestown      41  30  42  31 /  20  80  10   0
Lawrenceburg   44  32  45  31 /  50  90   0   0
Murfreesboro   44  32  45  31 /  40  80   0   0
Waverly        39  27  44  28 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
Friday for TNZ010-011-031>034-065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Mueller