


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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070 FXUS64 KOHX 170531 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will return to Middle Tennessee this weekend. There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in areas near the Tennessee River Saturday evening into Saturday night. - Temperatures will remain above normal the next couple of days, peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. - Look for significantly cooler temperatures from Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A surface ridge remains situated to our immediate northwest -- more or less where it sat 24 hrs. ago -- while an upper ridge is lined up to our west. Both features will slide across Middle Tennessee tomorrow, setting us up with some return southerly flow and allowing for temperatures to continue to climb. In fact, temperatures Saturday afternoon will get close to record values just before a cold front enters the mid state. Look for rain and storms to begin spreading into the local area Saturday afternoon, with the heaviest and most widespread activity coming through Saturday evening and overnight with the fropa. At this time, there is a marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 out of 5) on day 3 (Saturday and Saturday night) for most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau, mainly for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorm winds. In addition to the storminess this weekend, the bulk of the region should enjoy a much-needed, soaking rain. At this time, QPF values resulting from this active system range from around 3/4" along portions of the Cumberland Plateau, to more than 1" across areas to the south and west of Nashville. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Expect some lingering rain and storm chances on Sunday morning as the cold front makes its exit. It appears that most of the wrap- around moisture associated with this low pressure system will stay to the north of Middle Tennessee, so we should start to realize some clearing by Sunday afternoon. Also, temperatures behind the cold front will be dramatically cooler starting on Sunday, with widespread temperatures in the 40s on multiple nights next week, along with some low rain chances as a second cold front looks to race across the mid state on Tuesday and reinforces the cooler temperatures. For the first time in recent memory, the 6-10 day outlook favors normal to below-normal temperatures across Middle Tennessee (along with below normal rainfall). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will increase in the early morning hours tomorrow around 15z and clouds will move in from the west. Ceilings will remain VFR, however. Winds will calm once again in the evening around 0z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 63 88 61 / 0 10 40 90 Clarksville 84 62 88 57 / 0 0 40 100 Crossville 75 56 78 54 / 0 10 0 80 Columbia 84 62 87 58 / 0 10 40 90 Cookeville 77 59 81 56 / 0 10 10 90 Jamestown 76 57 80 56 / 0 10 10 90 Lawrenceburg 82 61 84 58 / 0 10 30 90 Murfreesboro 82 62 86 58 / 0 10 30 90 Waverly 82 62 85 54 / 0 0 40 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Holley