070
FXUS64 KOHX 170531
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to Middle Tennessee this
  weekend. There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  in areas near the Tennessee River Saturday evening into Saturday
  night.

- Temperatures will remain above normal the next couple of days,
  peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday.

- Look for significantly cooler temperatures from Sunday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A surface ridge remains situated to our immediate northwest --
more or less where it sat 24 hrs. ago -- while an upper ridge is
lined up to our west. Both features will slide across Middle
Tennessee tomorrow, setting us up with some return southerly flow
and allowing for temperatures to continue to climb. In fact,
temperatures Saturday afternoon will get close to record values
just before a cold front enters the mid state. Look for rain and
storms to begin spreading into the local area Saturday afternoon,
with the heaviest and most widespread activity coming through
Saturday evening and overnight with the fropa. At this time, there
is a marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 out of 5) on day 3
(Saturday and Saturday night) for most areas west of the
Cumberland Plateau, mainly for the possibility of strong to
severe thunderstorm winds. In addition to the storminess this
weekend, the bulk of the region should enjoy a much-needed,
soaking rain. At this time, QPF values resulting from this active
system range from around 3/4" along portions of the Cumberland
Plateau, to more than 1" across areas to the south and west of
Nashville.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Expect some lingering rain and storm chances on Sunday morning as
the cold front makes its exit. It appears that most of the wrap-
around moisture associated with this low pressure system will stay
to the north of Middle Tennessee, so we should start to realize
some clearing by Sunday afternoon. Also, temperatures behind the
cold front will be dramatically cooler starting on Sunday, with
widespread temperatures in the 40s on multiple nights next week,
along with some low rain chances as a second cold front looks to
race across the mid state on Tuesday and reinforces the cooler
temperatures. For the first time in recent memory, the 6-10 day
outlook favors normal to below-normal temperatures across Middle
Tennessee (along with below normal rainfall).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will
increase in the early morning hours tomorrow around 15z and clouds
will move in from the west. Ceilings will remain VFR, however.
Winds will calm once again in the evening around 0z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  63  88  61 /   0  10  40  90
Clarksville    84  62  88  57 /   0   0  40 100
Crossville     75  56  78  54 /   0  10   0  80
Columbia       84  62  87  58 /   0  10  40  90
Cookeville     77  59  81  56 /   0  10  10  90
Jamestown      76  57  80  56 /   0  10  10  90
Lawrenceburg   82  61  84  58 /   0  10  30  90
Murfreesboro   82  62  86  58 /   0  10  30  90
Waverly        82  62  85  54 /   0   0  40  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Holley