454
FXUS64 KOHX 080402
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1002 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Low chance for measurable rain with scattered light showers
  tonight into Monday morning. A few snow flurries possible
  Monday morning.

- Cloudy and chilly Monday. Warmer and breezy Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Much colder air arriving by the weekend with lows in the teens
  and highs mostly in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A disturbance accompanied by a cold front will move across the Mid
State overnight. Moisture / light rain showing up on radar across
MS/AL will move into mainly southern and eastern sections of
Middle TN overnight. Rainfall will be scattered and very light
with most places seeing just sprinkles (trace amounts). There may
be enough cold air for a flurries Monday morning.

High pressure will build in behind this system Monday, but as we
have seen during several recent events, the low level moisture
will linger under a strong temperature inversion, so clouds will
be slow to break up after this front. Monday will be another
chilly, cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. Wind
chills will be in the 30s through the day.

If skies clear out by Monday night, we could have foggy
conditions including some freezing fog, but enough cloud cover may
stay around to limit fog development.

On Tuesday, surface high pressure will move east of our area as a
low pressure system drops into the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Between these systems, southwest winds will increase with warm
advection bringing our temps up closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The warm advection pattern will continue Tuesday night and
Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our north. Temperatures will
climb well into the 50s for most of us on Wednesday, but it may
not feel so warm with gusty southwest winds over 25 mph at times.

A couple of shortwaves accompanied by cold fronts will drop
across the region Wednesday through Friday. We have been
advertising chances for rain showers and perhaps eventually some
snow showers with these systems, but models are trending drier.
the latest NBM forecast shows 20 to 30 percent precipitation
chances at most. This could still change of course, but right now
it looks like the main impact from these fronts will be the
arrival of much colder air, especially with Friday`s cold front.
We are forecasting weekend highs in the 30s with overnight lows
in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Look for another night and another day with low ceilings across
Middle Tennessee, with also some evening and overnight fog
primarily along and near the Cumberland Plateau. An inverted
surface trough has already slipped past the mid state, and an
upper trough currently situated to our west will come through
later tonight that looks to produce light precipitation, mainly
across the Cumberland Plateau, hence the PROB30 remarks at KCSV
and KSRB. Elsewhere, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the
TAFs. There isn`t a great deal of antecedent moisture across the
region, despite the persistent low clouds; the 00Z sounding from
OHX shows a moist column up to ~800 mb, then much drier above.
Expect low clouds to linger at least through Monday, with surface
winds increasing from the NNW later this evening and persisting
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  41  28  52 /  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    34  40  27  51 /  20  10   0   0
Crossville     34  39  22  47 /  40  20   0   0
Columbia       37  42  25  51 /  30  10   0   0
Cookeville     35  38  25  47 /  40  30   0   0
Jamestown      33  38  23  46 /  40  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   37  41  25  50 /  40  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   37  42  25  50 /  30  10   0   0
Waverly        34  41  26  49 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose