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FXUS64 KOHX 171104
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
504 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Cooler and dry on Monday, but a return to above-normal
  temperatures beginning Tuesday.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday
  with total rainfall amounts generally 1-2".

- No severe weather is expected at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure continues to dictate stable conditions across Middle
TN with a dry continental airmass. High pressure will gradually
shift to our east into Monday night with a shortwave ridge
approaching from the west ahead of a potent upper low moving into
the Plains. As this system continues to draw closer to the
Tennessee Valley Monday night, isentropic ascent will favor
increasing clouds and rain shower development that will persist
into Tuesday. By then the moisture axis will be situated
essentially over Middle TN, but the surface low will lag behind
upper forcing. It looks like the low will devolve into a surface
trough that will stall across our area Tuesday night leading to
continued chances for clouds & light rain showers. PoPs are fairly
high on Tuesday, but rain amounts seem to stay on the lower side
unless any slow-moving thunderstorms develop. No severe weather is
expected as forecast soundings suggest most storms will be
elevated though could produce small hail perhaps.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Deep-layer ridging is still favored on Wednesday which continues
to be our warmest day of the forecast period with temperatures ~10
degrees above normal. Lack of forcing this day has led to a
decrease in PoPs as we await the next upper-level disturbance to
approach from the west on Thursday. As this happens, the lingering
stalled boundary is progged to lift north as a warm front with
development of showers and thunderstorms. Height falls will
continue to move into the region Thursday night into Friday with a
strengthening low-level jet expected into Friday morning after the
warm front moves north of the Ohio River. Continued rain chances
remain in the forecast, but it may not be continuous presence of
convection as forcing from the warm front retreats north and we
wait for more influence from the approaching cold front/upper
trough from the west. Medium range guidance continues to struggle
with the evolution of the system late this week which limits
forecast confidence on any hazardous weather. We`ll continue to
watch Thu/Fri as the synoptic setup still presents the background
elements for strong storms should instability and other mesoscale
factors line up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will
generally start as northeasterly, becoming southerly after 00Z but
remaining light at less than 10 knots. There is a low chance for
showers after 06Z west of the Plateau, however, that chance was
too low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  48  74  59 /   0  20  50  80
Clarksville    63  49  72  57 /   0  30  70  80
Crossville     58  40  66  54 /   0  10  50  80
Columbia       65  47  76  59 /   0  10  30  60
Cookeville     58  42  69  57 /   0  10  60  90
Jamestown      57  40  66  55 /   0  10  70  90
Lawrenceburg   65  47  75  59 /   0  10  20  60
Murfreesboro   63  46  75  59 /   0  10  40  70
Waverly        63  49  73  57 /   0  20  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Clements