737
FXUS64 KOHX 200017
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
617 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- High rain chances across Middle Tennessee Thursday afternoon
  through Friday night.

- Some storms are possible Thursday and Friday, but the risk of
  severe storms is very low.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will stay with us through
  Saturday, with slightly cooler weather settling in by Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

it was a mostly cloudy and mild evening with temperatures mainly
in the 60s. Enough low level moisture lurks along a stalled
surface front to form areas of fog and low clouds overnight.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is
10 to 15 degrees above normal. Cloudy, gloomy conditions will
start Thursday, leading to a rainy, dreary afternoon and evening.

The forecast was recently freshened for hourly trends, no major
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1017 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A surface boundary continues to sag southward through Middle
Tennessee, although we won`t notice much change in temperatures.
However, dew points are already starting to drop from north to
south, and this is giving us a reprieve from active weather for
the next 24 hours or so. However, we do expect areas of fog to
develop once again during the overnight and early morning period
tomorrow. Rain and storm chances will begin to form by tomorrow
afternoon as a warm front develops to our north and a low pressure
system starts to gather steam over the Great Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1017 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Medium to high rain and storm chances will continue through Friday
and into Friday night as a cold front sweeps across the region.
Despite the unseasonable warmth, instability parameters associated
with this environment are quite modest, so it appears that showers
are going to be primary weather mode, with only isolated storms.
And the risk of severe storms over the next couple of days looks
to remain quite low. Rain chances will drop off over the weekend
as we find ourselves between active weather systems. Temperatures
will start to back off a few degrees during the weekend, but will
still remain above normal as we head into next week. The next cold
front looks to sweep through Middle Tennessee maybe Tuesday night,
and this one is expected to bring sharply colder temperatures to
the area during the mid to late week period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A variety of conditions are in place across the area, but all
sites will trend downward to IFR/LIFR overnight as areas of fog
and stratus form, then scattered showers begin to develop toward
daybreak. After 18Z, widespread rain will develop, keeping
conditions generally poor for flying. Winds will be light, mainly
northeast to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  67  60  73 /  10  90  80  70
Clarksville    48  65  58  72 /  10  90  90  90
Crossville     48  68  57  68 /   0  60  70  60
Columbia       52  72  60  73 /  10  90  60  70
Cookeville     51  68  59  70 /   0  70  70  70
Jamestown      49  66  56  69 /   0  50  80  70
Lawrenceburg   52  72  60  72 /  10  80  50  60
Murfreesboro   52  70  60  73 /  10  80  70  70
Waverly        51  66  59  70 /  20  90  80  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13