757
FXUS64 KOHX 031131
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
531 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

- Rain chances return Thursday night. There is a low chance of a
  wintry mix across Middle TN Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Most of Middle TN is sitting in the upper 20s/low 30s and the
whole area remains socked in under thick low clouds. There was
concern earlier about the potential for freezing fog to develop
overnight should clouds clear out, but the latest CAMs keep these
clouds around through tomorrow morning, and models aside, we`ve
watched these clouds remain nearly stagnant the whole day. Still,
if there are any pockets of clearing, patchy freezing fog could
develop, so be aware on your morning commute just in case. We will
start Wednesday out in the mid 20s and the rest of the day will
feature a clearing and slight warming trend as high pressure
moves into the area. Highs will be in the mid 40s with overnight
lows in the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Multiple chances for precip exist as we move into the long term
portion of the forecast with the first coming on Thursday night.
An area of surface low pressure will develop over Texas and move
into the western gulf, resulting in an abundance of moisture being
infused back into the area. Rain chances will creep up from the
south starting Thursday night, becoming more widespread by Friday
with rain chances ranging from 30-60% (lower values north of I-40,
higher values south of I-40). It currently looks like the bulk of
this precip will fall as a cold rain, but there will be the
possibility of a few mixed winter precip types falling as below-
freezing air coming in from the north collides with this
moisture. Looking at soundings, there is a warm nose of air aloft
that is oscillating a few degrees depending on the model you look
at, but temperatures at the surface remain at or right around
freezing for most of the duration that precip is falling.
Nonetheless, this will be something to monitor in the coming
days. For what it`s worth, current NBM probabilities of 0.1" of
snow Friday are between 10-20% and the chance of any accumulating
freezing rain is even lower, less than 10%. The areas outlined in
the current probabilities are roughly the northern half of the
CWA. If we do get some wintry mischief, temperatures look to
rebound nicely Saturday with highs reaching near 50 degrees, so
should any impacts develop, they will be short-lived.

Moving into the weekend, clouds and low rain chances will linger
as Middle TN sits under a longwave troughing pattern. Our next
system is currently forecast to move through Sunday with another
invasion of cold air following it. As rain exits off to the east
Monday and cooler temperatures filter in, a brief changeover from
rain to snow looks possible across the Plateau. This could change,
so stay tuned to the forecast for updates over the coming days.
Moving into next week, rain chances back off and temperatures will
attempt to modulate to near normal values by mid week with highs
forecast to reach back into the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low level CIGS are persisting across Middle TN. Latest models
suggest these clouds will stick around through the day with some
clear across the Plateau after 18z. There is some uncertainty on
how far west the clouds will erode, if at all. For now, thinking
MVFR CIGS will remain for BNA/MQY/CKV through 06z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  31  43  32 /   0  10   0  50
Clarksville    43  26  37  26 /   0   0   0  30
Crossville     45  26  42  29 /   0  10   0  50
Columbia       48  28  44  31 /   0  10   0  60
Cookeville     44  27  42  30 /   0  10   0  50
Jamestown      44  26  40  27 /   0   0   0  50
Lawrenceburg   48  28  45  32 /   0  10   0  60
Murfreesboro   46  27  44  31 /   0  10   0  50
Waverly        43  27  38  27 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Cravens