024
FXUS64 KOHX 101736
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Low to medium (up to 40%) snow accumulation chances on the Upper
  Cumberland Plateau tonight. Dusting to one half inch is the most
  likely outcome.

- Another cold front will impact the region this weekend bringing
  the coldest air of the season is expected Saturday and Sunday
  night, with widespread lows in the teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Some sun. Some Clouds. Maybe even a little light rain across our
northern tier of counties, but if you`re outside, the bigger issue
is probably the wind. It`s still below Wind Advisory criteria and
should stay there, but with temperatures in the 40s, it definitely
feels cooler than that outside. Winds will continue to gust 20 to
35 mph through the afternoon hours and should begin to relax this
evening after the cold front swings through here. Speaking of the
cold front: Cumberland Plateau? I think you`re going to see some
snow tonight. After the front moves through, boundary layer winds
swing to the northwest and create a perfect fetch for upslope flow
leading to the orographic lift that can cause snow accumulations
on the Upper Cumberland this time of the year. There are a couple
of limiting factors involved. First is a question of the depth of
moisture. HRRR soundings show saturation to -10C with starkly
drier air above that. This could mitigate how much snow is
possible. Additionally, temperatures this afternoon are expected
to get into the mid to upper 40s. This could also affect snowfall
totals. Because of these limiting factors, I`m going to refrain
from issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for this area for now. HREF
probs stand at 40% of seeing up to an inch in the usual spots
(Monterrey, Jamestown). The NBM is even lower. For now, we`ll
message a dusting to half an inch between midnight and 8 am.
However, those higher elevations could see up to an inch. What`s the
probability for more than an inch? 10%. Know that if this system
overperforms, you may experience some road issues tomorrow
morning on the Upper Cumberland -- and if you do get it,
temperatures won`t climb back above freezing until the afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A large, upper level trough over the eastern half of the US is
responsible for tonight`s weather. This trough is expected to remain
over New England for the next several days and during that time,
spit out several shortwaves. The first is Thursday night, which will
provide a good amount of snow to areas across the Ohio Valley. For
us, surface high pressure should keep that stuff north of us. In
fact, by Friday afternoon, temperatures look to climb back above
normal once again. However, on Friday night, another dry frontal
passage is expected and this is the one that is going to send us
into a bitter cold spell for a few days. Temperatures will fall
off about 10 degrees Saturday afternoon and that`s just the start.
Those temperatures that the NBM had in there a couple of days ago
and backed off of? Yeah, they`re back. Sunday morning lows are
again expected to be in the mid to upper teens and Monday morning
even colder. Some single digits will be possible in our usually
colder spots Monday morning. To be fair, even though the NBM
backed off yesterday, probs still stood at 50-70% of lows in the
teens. Now they`re closer to 90%.

For me, this is all good news because it gives us a chance to dry
out a bit. Our next chance of rain isn`t until this time next week.
So get those heavy jackets out of the moth balls. The cold air is
acomin` this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A front is passing to our north bringing a brief period of MVFR
CIGS across Middle TN. This cloud deck is fairly transient, so
expecting VFR conditions returning post front through the late
afternoon. Tonight, MVFR to VFR conditions develop behind the
front. Light snow possible across the Upper Cumberland, but
confidence is low. Put a prob30 group in for SRB/CSV. Winds
diminish late tonight and remain out of the NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  28  43  36 /  20   0  10   0
Clarksville    52  26  42  36 /  20   0  10   0
Crossville     48  25  37  28 /  30  40  30   0
Columbia       55  26  45  34 /  10   0  10   0
Cookeville     50  26  38  31 /  40  30  20  10
Jamestown      48  25  37  28 /  50  50  30  10
Lawrenceburg   54  25  45  34 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   54  26  43  34 /  20   0  10   0
Waverly        52  26  42  35 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens