399
FXUS64 KOHX 032318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
518 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances return Thursday night. There is a low chance of a
  wintry mix across Middle TN Friday morning. This will need to be
  monitored closely as there`s a 25-30% chance of accumulating
  ice on the Cumberland Plateau.

- Temperatures recover quickly Friday morning to limit any
  accumulating ice impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Update...

So much for the clouds! Clouds have quickly eroded over the last
two hours after every ounce of guidance suggesting they were going
to stick around. Temperatures are still going to run cool this
afternoon even with sun making a return. Have updated the grids to
reflect this. This may also open the door for more fog tonight as
grounds are still pretty saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The biggest story with this forecast package is shaping up to be the
previously mentioned system tomorrow night. It still looks like the
setup is one of an overrunning scenario where rain and warm air
aloft moves in from the south and precipitates into a cold surface
layer. Now, there`s a LOT of things that will go into this,
including wetbulb temperatures, surface temperatures and how intense
the rain is that decides whether we get freezing rain out of
tomorrow night`s system. As of right now, probabilities of
getting a few hundredths of freezing rain tomorrow night stand at
25-30% on the Cumberland Plateau and 10-15% elsewhere across
Middle TN. While that doesn`t seem like a great chance, those
numbers have ticked up 10-15% in this morning`s NBM/LREF suite.
We`ll get into HREF territory later today, but let it be said one
of its members (HRRR) is showing a little less than a tenth of an
inch of ice on the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow night. For now,
we`ll highlight the highest probability is a cold rain, but there
is a low risk of a swath of mixed wintry precipitation somewhere
in Middle TN.

Precipitation in whatever form it ends up being should be out of
here mid-morning on Friday and while there might be some clearing of
these clouds Friday afternoon, our next weather system will likely
push additional (or continued) cloud cover into the mid-state
Saturday and rain chances Saturday night right into Sunday. The NBM
is showing these rain chances as low due to inconsistencies from
model to model, so this will likely have to be revisited a couple of
times over the next few days. In either scenario, temperatures
through this forecast will remain several degrees below normal for
this time of the year. After the Saturday night/Sunday rain chances,
we should dry out for a couple of days before another system enters
the picture mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail through this evening as mid to high-level
clouds stream into Middle TN. Guidance does show a swath of low
clouds moving into northwest Middle TN tonight and moving as far
east as BNA and MQY. So did introduce MVFR cigs tonight at CKV,
BNA, and MQY. These clouds are expected to retreat to the west,
bringing VFR conditions back to BNA and MQY by late morning.
However, CKV will likely remain MVFR through the TAF period.
Precipitation chances will increase after 00Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      30  41  33  46 /   0  10  60  30
Clarksville    26  36  29  43 /   0  10  20  20
Crossville     26  40  30  42 /   0  10  90  60
Columbia       28  42  33  47 /   0  10  90  30
Cookeville     27  40  31  43 /   0  10  90  50
Jamestown      26  38  29  42 /   0  10  80  60
Lawrenceburg   28  43  34  46 /   0  10  80  40
Murfreesboro   27  42  33  46 /   0  10  90  40
Waverly        28  37  29  44 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements