763
FXUS64 KOHX 011807
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1207 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Low to medium chances for a light accumulation of freezing rain,
  sleet, and snow for northwest portions of Middle Tennessee
  tonight into tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
  effect.

- Dry weather expected Tuesday night through Thursday with decreasing
  chances for rain Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

There`s a nice plume of west-southwesterly flow aloft overspreading
the eastern CONUS ahead of a shortwave trough moving east across the
Plains currently. High pressure to our northeast continues to
foster a dry, cold day across Middle Tennessee with light NE
winds. Upper/mid-level clouds will continue to thicken through the
afternoon with isentropic ascent increasing from the southwest as
the disturbance approaches. By late afternoon/evening, chances
for light rain increase once the lower atmosphere saturates. In
fact, rain is already now approaching far southwest Tennessee
(near Memphis). Rain will become widespread tonight with a quick
increase in the low-level jet and northward expansion of the
inverted surface trough. Surface temperatures will remain above
freezing through much of the evening. However, cooler air will
begin to advect into the northwest after 9 PM, and certainly after
Midnight. This will support a wintry mix of precipitation for
areas generally west of I-65 and north of I-40. HREF probabilities
for a light accumulation of ice/sleet/wet snow have increased to
20-50% for these areas. With possible impacts to travel for the
Tuesday morning commute, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
which runs 9 PM tonight through 8 AM Tuesday. Once the back side
of the surface low/trough moves east, dry air will move in from
the west ending precipitation, though lingering light
snow/flurries are possible during the afternoon, especially
across the Plateau. Most of Middle TN will likely see a brief
period of wintry precip but our focus for meaningful
accumulations/impacts are focused on the advisory area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Mid-week looks to be cold and dry across the region due to
influence of high pressure at the surface, though low aloft
appears to maintain a zonal split flow configuration. A subsequent
disturbance aloft looks to enter the area late week, but guidance
has trended colder, drier for this period. PoPs have decreased
from previous forecasts but still remain low. We do not expect
wintry precipitation at this time. Temperatures continue to favor
below-normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions expected through 02-03Z for all terminals, but
there will be a big fall-off to MVFR and quickly to IFR as our
next weather maker enters the area this evening. -RA will be the
main precip until 08-09Z when a short change over to -SN/IP will
occur at CKV/BNA/MQY on the backside of the precip. Less certain
on the changeover for CSV/SRB, covered with PROB30 after 12Z/Tue.

Winds will be light (10 kts or less) but shift around to the
northwest after 06Z/Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  32  38  24 /  30 100  10   0
Clarksville    43  29  36  21 /  30  90  10   0
Crossville     46  32  36  20 /  10  90  40   0
Columbia       47  32  39  21 /  50 100  10   0
Cookeville     49  32  36  22 /  10 100  40   0
Jamestown      46  30  35  22 /  10 100  40   0
Lawrenceburg   48  32  38  21 /  50 100  10   0
Murfreesboro   49  32  38  21 /  30 100  10   0
Waverly        44  29  36  21 /  40  90  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST
Tuesday for TNZ005>007-023>026.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Unger