095
FXUS64 KOHX 150528
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

- Low chance for showers and t-storms tonight (~20%), best
  chances are west of I-65.

- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal through most
  of the upcoming work week.

- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) Friday through Sunday, with
  a decreasing trend in temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

A weak disturbance remains situated to our northwest (near the
Missouri Bootheel) which is associated with a cluster of
thunderstorms across western TN and western KY. An odd upper-level
configuration with a ridge to our north and a cutoff low to our
southeast is resulting in northerly flow, so this activity is
moving north to south. Continued isolated showers or
thunderstorms is possible west of I-65 overnight with the
strongest producing ~40 mph winds and small hail.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm is also possible Monday
afternoon, though it appears best activity is being signaled
across the mountains of eastern TN as the cutoff low to our
southeast begins to move north, with a separate area of convection near
the Mississippi River thanks to better moisture. Thus, overall
chances for Middle TN is only ~10%. High temperatures for Monday
and Tuesday are forecast to remain 5-8 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Much of the upcoming work week should remain fairly quiet
weather-wise with a continuation of relatively warm and dry
conditions each day. Temperatures are forecast to remain above
normal through Friday. We continue to see a favored signal for
decreasing temperatures and increasing rain chances toward the end
of the forecast period thanks to an approaching upper-level low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to track SW
through the CWA, mainly between CKV and BNA. These storms are
weakening and activity is expected to diminish over the next few
hours. VFR conditions prevail for all terminals and will continue
through 06z Monday. Winds remain light out of the SE. Issued an
amd not sked for SRB as VIS and CIG sensors seem to be faulty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  67  91  64 /  10   0  10   0
Clarksville    93  65  93  61 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     83  59  80  57 /  10  10  20   0
Columbia       89  64  90  64 /  10   0  10  10
Cookeville     85  63  83  60 /  10  10  10   0
Jamestown      84  62  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   88  63  88  61 /  10   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   91  64  89  63 /  10   0  10   0
Waverly        90  65  91  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Cravens