271
FXUS61 KOKX 240251
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
951 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front well offshore tonight, as high pressure builds in
behind it. High pressure remains in control through Tuesday
morning before a warm front pushes north of the area Tuesday
evening. A cold front then approaches Wednesday and moves across
Wednesday night. Strong low pressure will be northeast of the
region with high pressure to the southwest of the region
Thanksgiving through Friday night. High pressure builds back
into the area for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Winds gust at times behind the cold frontal passage through
tonight, more so at the coast. Went above the NBM given how it
has has performed in recent NW flow/cold advection regimes and
also taking into account mixing from the latest model soundings.
Gusts at the coast will likely be between 25 and 35 mph.

Given that winds likely stay elevated, not expecting temps to get as
low as last night. Lows are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s
for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Brief ridging builds in aloft on Monday along with surface high
pressure. The pressure gradient relaxes pretty significantly by
Monday afternoon/evening and so winds will fall off. Winds
remain light through Monday night, but mid and upper level
clouds are expected to increase so this will work against
radiational cooling. The low temperature forecast Monday night
will be very dependent on this cloud cover so if timing changes
over the next 24 hours then expect changes in the forecast lows
as well.

A frontal system then approaches on Tuesday with rain starting as
early as Tuesday afternoon. The center of the low will be well to
the north and west but the associated warm front will push north of
the area sometime Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points

* Windy conditions looking more likely Thanksgiving through
  Friday. Possibility for wind gusts 40 to 45 mph Thanksgiving
  and perhaps wind gusts up to 50 mph for Friday.

* Colder than normal temperatures with colder wind chills in the
  forecast for Thanksgiving and Friday. Highs mainly in the low
  to mid 40s Thanksgiving with wind chills mostly in the 30s.
  Highs mainly in the lower 40s Friday with wind chills mostly
  in the upper 20s to near 30.

* Outside of a chance of mainly rain ahead and along the cold front
  Wednesday through Wednesday night, mainly dry conditions are
  expected for the long term forecast period.

A large dip in the jet stream is shown in the numerical weather
prediction guidance consensus to the west of the region early
Wednesday. The associated trough and jet stream max move near the
area for mid to late week. Jet stream max moves south of the area
Thursday night into Friday. This mid and upper level pattern flatten
out, with return to a nearly zonal flow for the weekend. A ridging
pattern becomes evident in the guidance for next weekend. The
850mb fields show a cold pool moving into the region in the
Thursday through Friday evening time period with values near
the -7 to -10 degree C range. This will mark a very cold airmass
that will be encompassing the area during this time period.

At the surface, the local region will be in the warm sector for
Wednesday with a cold front approaching from the west. This cold
front crosses the region Wednesday night. Then, one low, relatively
weaker one, will be moving northeast of the region into Canadian
Maritimes Thanksgiving Thursday. Meanwhile, another relatively
stronger low will be in Southeast Canada moving eastward on
Thursday. In the numerical model fields MSLP and with their
depiction of winds, a secondary cold front appears to move across
Friday. High pressure builds in from the south and west thereafter
for the next weekend.

The windy conditions forecast are a result of a tightening pressure
gradient seen in the forecast models Thursday through Friday. The
pressure gradient appears to be the tightest on Friday. This is
associated with a stronger area of low pressure that will be moving
within Southeast Canada. The GFS model BUFKIT soundings on Friday
afternoon are indicating already some top of the mixed layer gusts
near 40 to 45 kt. On a westerly flow, efficient vertical mixing and
winds near top of the mixed layer can more easily be brought down to
the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves further offshore tonight as high pressure builds.

VFR prevails throughout the TAF period.

Some uncertainty regarding how much winds drop off and for how long
tonight. Most outlying terminals will not gust for much of the
night, but the chances increase for gusts getting closer to the
morning push. KJFK and KLGA should gust to around 20 kt for most of
the night before temporarily ending towards 08z. The NYC terminals
will have sustained winds right around 10 kt, with KEWR and KTEB not
having prevailing gusts until later Monday morning.  By 14z Mon W-NW
winds 10-15 kt sustained with gusts around 20-25 kt. Gusts should
end with winds decreasing to around 10 kt towards 19-20z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts up to 20 kt could occur at times throughout tonight for KEWR
and KTEB, but confidence was too low to include in TAFs. Gusts
may be more occasional tonight for KJFK and KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR with light SW winds.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR late in the day with rain becoming
likely in the afternoon. Rain at night with MVFR/IFR. Chc S-SW gusts
20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR and showers, otherwise mostly VFR.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on ocean with 25
knot wind gusts expected. The SCA on all other waters (except
the NY Harbor and western Sound) is now also in effect. Winds
decrease on Monday and sub- SCA conditions return by Monday
afternoon. Sub- SCA conditions then continue through mid week,
except a short period Tuesday night when 25 knot gusts are
possible on the ocean waters.

SCA conditions likely for the ocean Wednesday and for most
waters Wednesday night. Potential for gales all waters Thursday
through Friday. Elevated seas well into SCA range for ocean and
portions of Long Island Sound Thursday through Friday. Forecast
winds eventually trend down to SCA levels Friday night and SCA
levels for seas remain on the ocean and Eastern Long Island
Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JM/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT