186
FXUS61 KOKX 092201
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
501 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad low pressure approaches from the west, with a warm front
approaching from the south this evening and passing north
tonight. A weak trailing cold front will pass through late
tonight into Monday morning, followed by a stronger cold front
Monday afternoon/evening. High pressure will then pass to the
south on Tuesday as low pressure intensifies over eastern
Canada. A weak frontal system approaches Tuesday Night and
passes through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High
pressure builds in Thursday into Friday, and moves offshore
Saturday. Another frontal system approaches for the end of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Models continue in good agreement with elongating closed upper
low over the upper Great Lakes will continue to dig down into
the Ohio Valley tonight, phasing with southern branch of the
polar jet, and carving out an anomalously deep longwave trough
(-3 to 5 std) over the eastern half of the country. The closed
upper low/deep trough gradually slides east towards the coast
tonight thru Monday Night.

At the surface, resultant broad and weak sfc low pressure over
the Ohio Valley drifts towards the region today and over the
region tonight. A weak warm front, over the Mid-Atlantic
continues to approach from the south late this afternoon. Weak
secondary low development and strengthening llj to the S and E
of LI will have more widespread overrunning rain shower activity
working into the area thru early this evening ahead/along warm
front lifting N through the area.

Main llj forcing and moisture/instability axis is likely to
stay just to the SE of the region, likely keeping isolated tstms
activity SE of the area, but an embedded tstms possible this
afternoon/early evening across E LI and SE CT. An embedded heavy
downpour is possible areawide in a weakly unstable environment,
which could bring a localized quick 1/4 to 1/2" of rain. Again,
best chance across LI/CT. Otherwise, generally light rain
shower activity.

In the wake of warm front and llj, broad low slides into the
area this evening, with mid levels drying and with weaker lift
for the first half of tonight, resulting in areas of drizzle and
fog.

Trailing weak front approaches late tonight, with development
of weak low pressure`s tracking north along it, as the Ohio
Valley upper low slowly slides east. Isolated to scattered
shower activity likely along the front, with again potential for
localized heavy downpour in a weakly unstable environment.
Moreso the signal is for stratiform rain development in the wake
of the front late tonight with deep layered lift ahead of
approaching upper low and divergent flow aloft.

Mild temps overnight for most the area (upper 40s/lower 50s)
with cloud cover and lagging caa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough (-3 to 5
std) over the eastern half of the country, slowly pivots NE
towards the area, over the region by Tue AM, and to the NE of
the region by Tue eve.

At the surface, weak trailing cold front (with low pressure
waves) shifts east of the area Mon morning, with stratiform
rain slowly tapering from W to E through the late morning into
afternoon. With lagging and slow eastward movement of upper
features/forcing, rain will likely be slow to taper from W to
E, possibly lingering into the late afternoon for E LI/SE CT.
More marked drying not likely until secondary cold frontal
passage Monday aft into eve from W to E.

Early highs in the upper 50s on Mon for much of the region, but
then strong caa ensues in wake of cold frontal passage Mon aft
into Mon Night on gusty W/NW flow (850 mb temps down to -11C).
This will bring in the coldest airmass of the fall season, with
low temps falling into the 20s across the interior and upper
20s/lower 30s for coast. With the potential of freezing
temperatures where the growing season has not yet ended, a
Freeze Watch has been issued for late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. The mixed low-levels should preclude frost development
for any areas that remain just above freezing. NW flow
(15-20G25-30mph) during this time will lead to wind chills in
the teens inland and lower 20s along the coast.

Deep cyclonic flow and heart of polar airmass expected over the
area on Tuesday as closed/low trough axis slide across the
region. This will result in scattered to broken cold pool
instability cu development, and can`t rule out a few flurries
across interior with extended lake streamers off the mild Great
Lakes.

Highs will struggle into the lower to mid 40s (10 to 15 degrees
below normal) with 850mb tempos of -8 to-9C. Additionally a
tight W/NW gradient between SE Canada low and southern high will
result in widespread 20-30g35-40mph across the area, and keep
windchills near or below freezing for much of the day.

Winds subside a bit Tue night and back WSW with gusts 25-35mph
ahead of an approaching weak shortwave/Great Lakes clipper
system. WAA flow, mixed low-levels and increasing high and mid
clouds will result in a milder airmass (low temps in the upper
20s interior and low to mid 30s coast). Can`t rule of a few
flurries across the interior and sprinkles/flurries along the
coast in waa regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points:

* A fast moving frontal system passes through the northeast
  Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise, dry as high
  pressure builds for Thursday into Friday. Another frontal
  system may affect the region for the end of next weekend.

*  Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the
   time, and up to 5 degrees below normal Friday night through
   Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure along a warm front approaches from the
south, moving through tonight. A cold front will then follow
during the early morning hours Monday.

MVFR/IFR and showers this afternoon lowering to IFR and
drizzle/light rain early this evening before lifting back to
MVFR/IFR for much of tonight. A better chance of conditions
prevailing at least MVFR during the during the morning push, but
still with showers. Prevailing VFR doesn`t appear to be more
probable until late Monday morning, but could occur sooner than
forecast.

SE winds gusting 15-19kt this afternoon shift more southerly or
go light and variable early this evening before becoming more
SW overnight at under 10kt. For the morning push, WNW to WSW
winds continuing at under 10kt. Winds then increase form the W
to NW Monday afternoon with gusts increasing 20-25kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in extent and duration of IFR conds through
tonight. There is a possibility of going VFR for a few hours
tonight once the warm front lifts north of the area, but also a
chance that IFR lasts longer into the night before improvement
to MVFR.

Wind direction from approx 00z-08z somewhat uncertain, but
higher confidence that speeds remain below 10kt during this
time.

Tempo or prevailing VFR on Monday may occur a few hours sooner
than currently forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday PM: VFR. NW-W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal ocean seas around 4 ft likely for ocean waters west of Fire
Island Inlet, and around 5 ft east of Fire Island inlet this aft/eve
as SE flow increases ahead of low pressure to the west and a warm
front to the south. A few gusts up to 25 kt may also be possible
this afternoon or early this evening.

Lighter winds expected tonight, then winds pick up to SCA for all
waters Mon AM into early afternoon behind a cold front, gradually
strengthening Mon Night, to gale by Tuesday AM with tightening
pressure gradient and strong caa over mild waters. Gale conditions
likely on the ocean waters, with moderate potential for
nearshore waters Tue AM into Tue night. Marginal gales
conditions possibly lingering for ocean waters on Wed, with
strong SCA elsewhere.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely across
the forecast waters, with at least SCA conditions Wednesday
Night through late Friday on the non ocean waters and into
Friday evening for the ocean waters. There may be a brief period
of gusts below SCA levels on the non ocean waters Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Westerly gales are likely to
develop on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels likely fall just below minor flood thresholds for
Mon late AM/aft high tide cycles.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for NYZ071>075-078>081-177-179.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...MET/NV
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/MET