335
FXUS61 KOKX 100746
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
246 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this morning, followed by a stronger
cold front this evening. High pressure will then pass to the
south on Tuesday as low pressure intensifies over eastern Canada.
A weak frontal system approaches Tuesday Night and passes through
the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure builds
in Thursday into Friday, and moves offshore Saturday. Another
frontal system approaches for the end of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough (-3 to
-5 std) continues to dig into the Ohio Valley this morning. A
broad area of low pressure is passing overhead and will drag a
weak cold front through this morning and a stronger cold front
later today.

Currently light rain is falling along the front as it moves
through and this activity will gradually shift east through the
day. Any convective activity likely misses the area to the south
and east where the greater instability is along with a LLJ. Some
patchy dense fog has also been observed but improvement is being
seen as rain and the weak front moves through.

A stronger cold front moves through later today and the coldest
airmass of the season will usher in with strong CAA. Guidance
consensus is that temperatures at several levels of the
atmosphere will be below or near the lowest daily observed
values for 11/11 12z per SPC`s Sounding Climatology Page.
Temperatures at 850mb are expected to be around -12C. The low
temperature forecast tonight generally remained the same or
lowered a degree or two. Confidence was high enough to convert
the Freeze Watch to a Warning and add Queens County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis swings through during the day on Tuesday
and then brief zonal flow is expected before a shortwave trough
swings through Wednesday night.

The main story of the short term is the gusty winds on Tuesday.
Model soundings are showing deep mixing with strong winds at the
top of the mixed layer. Went higher than NBM 90th percentile but
thinking the forecast will trend even higher. 40 kt gusts are
not out of the question.

Additionally, given the deep cyclonic flow and heart of polar
airmass expected over the area on Tuesday, scattered to broken
cold pool instability cu development is expected. Some light
snow showers with extended lake streamers off the mild Great
Lakes are possible for the interior.

Model agreement lowers a bit for Wednesday with the shortwave
trough and associated surface features. Forecast is currently
dry, but some guidance is trending towards a stronger and wetter
solution like the 11/10 00z NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points:

*  Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the
   time, and up to 5 degrees below normal Friday night through
   Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wave of low pressure and cold front moves through into early
morning.

LIFR-IFR conditions should begin to improve early this morning
as additional showers move across the terminals. These showers
likely persist through the morning push with at least MVFR
conds. Gradual improvement and return to VFR through late
morning for NYC terminals. MVFR conditions may linger into the
early afternoon with the exiting shower activity, especially for
LI and S CT terminals.

Light and variable flow early this morning, then NW/N after
daybreak. Winds may go more WSW or W toward 15Z, persisting the
rest of the day. Speeds increase from under 10 kt through
tonight and much of the morning, to 10-15G20-25kt in the
afternoon. Gusts may linger into the evening, and potentially
overnight into Tue AM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in extent and duration of IFR conds overnight.

Lower confidence in wind direction into the morning, but higher
confidence that speeds remain below 10kt during this time.

Improvement to VFR could be delayed a couple of hours.

Start time of gusts may be delayed 1-3 hours late this
morning/early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR. NW-W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy dense fog is being observed on the waters, mainly the
eastern half. Another Marine Weather Statement has been issued.
Visibilities should continue to improve with rain and a weak
front moving through.

Winds and seas gradually increase today and Small Craft
Advisories are in effect.

The Gale Watch has been converted to a Gale Warning on all
waters for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds will gust as high
as 35 to 40 kts and seas will reach around 10 ft on the ocean.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely across
the forecast waters, with at least SCA conditions Wednesday
Night through late Friday on the non ocean waters and into
Friday evening for the ocean waters. There may be a brief period
of gusts below SCA levels on the non ocean waters Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Westerly gales are likely to
develop on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ006-104-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT