172
FXUS61 KOKX 120244
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
944 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain in between low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south with a weak frontal system expected to move
through Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds in
Thursday with a weak surface trough moving through on Friday.
High pressure then builds in through Saturday, and moves
offshore Saturday night. A frontal system approaches Saturday
night and moves through the region Sunday into Monday. Another
weak frontal system may approach for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The area will remain between high pressure to the south and a large
low pressure system to the north. This will continue to allow for a
strong NW flow advecting in cold air tonight. Scattered snow showers
across much of the area will persist until the mid to late
afternoon. An SPS is in effect to address the possibility of light
accumulations on cooler or grassy surfaces as well as the potential
for decreased visibility with the gusty winds.

This evening, a subtle surface ridge will build into the area from
the west which will allow the flow to become primarily W/WSW, but
remain fairly brisk with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph, especially
along the coast. This will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer
than last night with lows in the lower 30s for much of inland areas,
low to middle 30s for the coast, and middle to upper 30s for the NYC
metro. Given that wind is still expected to be fairly strong
overnight, no frost development is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday, the weak surface ridging slides east as a mid-level
shortwave amplifies the trough once again. The shortwave forces a
weak surface frontal system to develop and move through the area
late Wednesday into Thursday.

Much of Wednesday is expected to be dry and mostly clear with flow
remaining W/WSW. High temperatures will moderate a bit with highs in
the middle to upper 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. While not
expected, a stray shower can`t be entirely ruled out, especially for
extreme NW portions of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected with a persistent brisk wind with gusts upwards of 20-25
mph.

The weak frontal system approaches and moves through the area late
Wednesday into early Thursday which shouldn`t result in much in the
way of sensible weather with the exception of a wind shift to more
out of the NW and perhaps a slight increase in the gusts, especially
behind the frontal passage on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be
generally in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy NW flow continues
Thursday night with lows in the low 30s inland and middle to upper
30s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key points:

* Dry conditions through Saturday as high pressure builds into the
  region.

* A frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves across the
  region Sunday into early Monday with chances for light rain. A
  period of light snow is possible inland late Saturday night.

* Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the time.
  Temperatures Sunday and Sunday night rebound to slightly above
  normal behind a warm front.

* Brisk westerly flow Friday and again Monday.

An unsettled long term period is possible with one frontal system
affecting the region Saturday night into early Monday, and another
system approaching for Tuesday. An upper closed low is likely to
remain across eastern Canada and the northeast United States Friday
through Sunday. Then another northern stream longwave trough moving
out of western Canada Saturday weakens an upper ridge over the Great
Lakes region and possibly phases with the eastern low late Sunday
into Monday. The closed low then lifts northward into Tuesday.
Another weak shortwave and surface low approaches for Tuesday. There
is uncertainty with the track and strength of the low for Saturday
into early next week, and the timing of a warm front moving through
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Cold air is not expected to
remain as the front pushes northward with no cold air damming
expected. There may be a period of light snow inland Saturday night
before transiting to all rain. At this time freezing rain is not
expected. The timing of the front will have an impact on highs for
Sunday, with a rather large range of possibilities across the
forecast area, and followed the NBM deterministic guidance at this
time. However, for Friday night used a blend of the NBM and NBM 50th
percentile for slightly colder lows with high pressure building into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the southwest tonight. A frontal
system approaches from the west on Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period.

W flow 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this evening, backing
WSW tonight. Gusts likely persist overnight 20 to 25 kt, but may
subside or become more occasional for a period, especially
after 6Z Wed. Frequent gusts return to all terminals after 12Z
Wed, with sustained W or WSW winds generally 10-15 kt, gusting
20-25 kt through the day. Gusts diminish in the evening at
outlying terminals, and may persist elsewhere into the first
part of the night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts to 30 kt possible on Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: VFR. W winds G20kt.

Thursday-Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds G15-25kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters through tonight with
peak gusts into this evening at near 40kt. Conditions gradually
decrease tonight and the Gale Warning may be able to come down
earlier than currently forecast. Small craft advisory
conditions could continue on the ocean waters for several days
with the non-ocean waters remaining more marginal. Thursday
looks like a better day to have more widespread SCA conditions
across the waters with gusts near 25kt.

Small craft advisory gusts are possible across the forecast waters
Friday, and ocean seas will be near 5 feet across the outer waters,
with a strong NW flow behind a departing low across the Canadian
Maritime. Small craft gusts continue on the ocean waters through
Friday night. Conditions remain below advisory levels until Sunday
as winds and gusts increase in a SW flow behind a warm front and
ahead of an approaching low. Small craft conditions return on the
ocean waters during Sunday and then continue into Sunday night.
Small craft gusts will be possible on the non ocean waters Sunday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW