068
FXUS64 KOUN 251756
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1156 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Cool and dry weather through Friday.

- Strong cold front arrives this weekend with below-normal
  temperatures likely and a low chance for wintry precipitation
  into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

As a shortwave trough moves eastward across the Northern Plains,
a trailing cold front is advancing to the southeast across
Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon.

Vertical mixing into modest 925 to 850 mb flow (25 to 30 knots)
is resulting in gusty northwest winds at 25 to 35 mph behind the
cold front. Toward the latter part of the afternoon, cold air
advection will be significant enough where temperatures will
become steady and even begin to fall--especially across northwest
Oklahoma.

The cold front will move through the entire area by late this
afternoon. Drier air is also advecting behind front with dew
points dropping into the 30s and eventually the 20s deg F.

By tonight, winds will gradually decrease as a surface high moves
to the southeast toward the Southern Plains. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid 20s to upper 30s deg with the
drier air mass in place.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Cool, slightly below-normal temperatures are expected on
Wednesday with the surface high centered across Oklahoma and north
Texas. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s deg F. As the surface high passes by, winds will shift toward
the south by late afternoon into the evening. With a dry air mass
still in place, most locations will likely drop to near or below
freezing Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

By Thanksgiving Day, the return to southerly winds will result in
seasonable temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s deg F.
Abundant sunshine and light winds should make for a perfect
Thanksgiving Day.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Synoptic uncertainty increases as we get to late week. Models depict
a shortwave moving through the central CONUS on Saturday (high
variance in timing, depth, and north-south position), with warm air
advection starting up ahead of this feature. With the WAA, we`ll see
rain chances increase Friday night through Saturday, particularly
over southeastern Oklahoma.

Interquartile ranges for temperatures Saturday night and Sunday
approach 20-30 degrees, largely due to significant timing
differences (24-48 hours) in the arrival of a strong cold front.
This will also impact continuing precipitation chances early next
week as well as precipitation type. Currently, ensemble guidance
suggests 10-20% chance of wintry precipitation across the northwest
half of Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A few locations continue to have IFR/MVFR ceilings late this
morning. These ceilings are expected to improve/dissipate over the
next couple of hours with mid/high clouds expected the rest of the
TAF period. A re-enforcing cold front has moved into parts of OK
this morning and is expected to move SE across the area this
afternoon/evening. Gusty NW/N winds are expected behind the front.
Winds will become lighter later tonight as sfc high builds into
the region. Winds will also start to shift back towards the S
Wednesday as the sfc high moves east across the fa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  34  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  31  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  35  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           58  27  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  29  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         66  37  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25