567
FXUS64 KOUN 150615
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1215 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

  - Record high temperature Saturday and elevated fire danger.

  - The fire danger risk increases again Monday afternoon across
    western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas.

  - Precipitation chances return by mid next week with heavy
    rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025


Late Friday evening, despite a weak southerly flow (most areas) there
was a notable demarcation in dewpoint temperatures across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Low-level winds will increase
and become more veered during the overnight hours into Saturday
morning, as a pre-frontal trough and cold front approach. This
will keep the near-surface moisture very shallow even across
eastern parts of Oklahoma. As heating and mixing occurs early
Saturday morning, drier air will push eastward. Meanwhile, 60
degree dewpoint temperatures will advect northward into north
central Oklahoma which may result in a patchy dense fog through
through mid morning Saturday.

But the main weather story for Saturday will be another day of
record heat.  A cold front will move across at least the northern
2/3rds of Oklahoma by late afternoon, but very weak cold advection
will be associated with the boundary.  Temperatures reached the lower
90s across western north Texas Friday afternoon and similar readings
are expected this afternoon.  It`s certainly possible Wichita Falls
will reach 90 degrees which will be the latest 90 degree reading in
November. However, in December of 2021 (the 24th) 90 degree weather
was recorded, so it would not be the latest in the calendar year.

Record high temperatures for Saturday, November 15th
OKC             84
Wichita Falls   85
Lawton          85


The fire weather environment will become elevated Saturday afternoon
as well, especially across southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas, where little if any cool advection will reach this region
before peak heating. Much of western Oklahoma will also see
afternoon humidity at or slightly below 20 percent, but overall
wind speeds will be a mitigating factor for fire weather. We will
issue a Fire Danger Statement for parts of western Oklahoma and
western north Texas.

The cold front/wind shift will reach most areas by Saturday night
with the exception being parts of southeastern Oklahoma.  The air
behind the front will not be overly dry, but dry enough for low
temperatures to fall into the 40s and lower 50s (most areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Record temperatures are not expected on Sunday, but well above
average temperatures will prevail with northeast to east surface
winds.

Late Sunday into Monday, a shortwave trough will move across the
central Plains.  As an associated surface low moves across Kansas
Monday, breezy southwest winds, near record heat, and low humidity
will elevate fire weather conditions.  Afternoon humidity Monday is
expected to reach 20-25 percent across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas. Earlier forecast suggested better cooling would
occur as this system lifted to the northeast, but this may only
occur across the northern half of Oklahoma (albeit weak).


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

After the Monday system moves northeast of the southern Plains,
richer Gulf moisture should be displaced just to our south in
northern Texas and perhaps along the Red River Valley of Oklahoma.
As a full-latitude trough moves across the West Coast, a warm front
may begin to lift northward into southern/central Oklahoma late
Tuesday into Wednesday.  This may result in at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms with better chances across the southern
half of Oklahoma and northern Texas.

This is expected to be the general setup, but some ensemble
members suggest a slower movement of the trough which may delay
the onset of much needed precipitation. Currently, the quickly
solution is favored which will bring the bulk of the precipitation
from very late Tuesday into Thursday of next week. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible during this period too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Patchy fog impacting KPNC/KSWO and low-level wind shear across
the southern one-half of Oklahoma and north Texas remain the
concern overnight tonight. While confidence in fog impact has
decreased some since the prior update, will maintain TEMPO
mentions at KPNC & KSWO, with highest chance of persistent lowered
vis remaining at the former. Low-level wind shear also remains a
concern through the mid-morning on Saturday ahead of an
approaching surface front.

The aforementioned front will offer a wind shift as it passes a
terminal through the day on Saturday, with latest projections
having this feature reaching the Red River vicinity by the late
afternoon.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  56  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  49  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  89  57  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           85  46  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  62  85  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09