699
FXUS64 KOUN 011734
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1134 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Below normal temperatures and a chance for light wintry
   precipitation today. Little to no accumulation is expected.

 - Temperatures moderate Tuesday, ahead of a cold front that will
   bring colder weather late Wednesday into Thursday.

 - There is a chance for light wintry precipitation Thursday into
   Thursday night.

 &&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Numerous showers have developed across much of Oklahoma and north
Texas this morning within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air
advection. The exception has been across far west central
Oklahoma.

These showers are producing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain,
and sleet/ice pellets. These showers are not producing snow
because the activity is too shallow with the saturated layer
beneath the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ), which is the layer
in the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12 to -18 deg C.
Precipitation amounts reaching the surface have generally been a
trace to a few hundredths given the light echoes and the dry
boundary layer/low-levels (i.e., some of the precipitation is
evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface).

Where temperatures are above freezing (generally southeast of
I-44), the precipitation types are rain and sleet. Even though
surface temperatures are above freezing, the sleet/ice pellets
develop by water droplets freezing before reaching the surface.
Near the I-44 corridor, it`ll be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and
sleet (i.e., freezing rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing). The good news is this is not an environment that is
favorable for the development of freezing drizzle given the dry
low-levels. Instead, the scenario is (convective) showers. The
signal among the convective-allowing models indicate this as well
with a cellular structure in the precipitation. Even with the
absence of freezing drizzle, there is the potential for localized
slick spots on elevated surfaces where light freezing rain occurs.

Across northern Oklahoma, areas of light snow will develop with
ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The track of the
shortwave trough is unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with the
highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture is limited
with the system. There is a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall
accumulation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Therefore, a trace
to only light accumulations are generally expected

The system will depart this afternoon with most locations
expected to rise above freezing.

Mahale

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 926 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Numerous showers have developed across much of Oklahoma and north
Texas this morning within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air
advection. The exception has been across far west central
Oklahoma.

These showers are producing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain,
and sleet/ice pellets. These showers are not producing snow
because the activity is too shallow with the saturated layer
beneath the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ), which is the layer
in the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12 to -18 deg C.
Precipitation amounts reaching the surface have generally been a
trace to a few hundredths given the light echoes and the dry
boundary layer/low-levels (i.e., some of the precipitation is
evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface).

Where temperatures are above freezing (generally southeast of
I-44), the precipitation types are rain and sleet. Even though
surface temperatures are above freezing, the sleet/ice pellets
develop by water droplets freezing before reaching the surface.
Near the I-44 corridor, it`ll be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and
sleet (i.e., freezing rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing). The good news is this is not an environment that is
favorable for the development of freezing drizzle given the dry
low-levels. Instead, the scenario is (convective) showers. The
signal among the convective-allowing models indicate this as well
with a cellular structure in the precipitation. Even with the
absence of freezing drizzle, there is the potential for localized
slick spots on elevated surfaces where light freezing rain occurs.

Across northern Oklahoma, areas of light snow will develop with
ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The track of the
shortwave trough is unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with the
highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture is limited
with the system. There is a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall
accumulation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Therefore, a trace
to only light accumulations are generally expected

The system will depart this afternoon with most locations
expected to rise above freezing.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday as mid-level heights rise
with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday
afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s deg
F.

The warming trend will be brief as the the next cold front will
move through during the day Wednesday as a mid/upper-level trough
embedded in the polar jet stream amplifies across the Great Lakes
region. The amplifying trough will advance another cold front
southward across the Plains with a ~1036 mb surface high in its
wake. Similar to the previous cold front, the trajectory of this
air mass will be from Canada. Falling temperatures are likely
northwest of I-44 Wednesday afternoon with breezy northerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The cold front that moved through Wednesday will return us to
below-normal temperatures on Thursday with highs likely in the
30s and 40s deg F.

A wave in the subtropical jet stream may provide enough synoptic-
scale ascent for the chance for precipitation Thursday into
Friday. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the
strength of the wave and amount of precipitation. For example, the
latest deterministic guidance shears out/weakens the wave
substantially--which would result in a drier forecast. If there is
precipitation, there is the potential for a wintry mix (depending
on temperature profiles) across parts of the area. Probabilistic
guidance indicates a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall
northwest of I-44. The chance of 1" of snowfall is 10 to 20%
across northwest into north central Oklahoma.

By Friday and Saturday, temperatures are expected to moderate with
a return to southerly winds. Another cold front is forecast to
move through late Saturday into Sunday, but the air mass behind
this front does not appear to be as cold as the previous two with
only a glancing blow for the Southern Plains.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A low ceiling will persist for the next 4-6 hours maintaining MVFR
or a potential MVFR category through 00Z. Some of our terminals in
western Oklahoma and northern Texas could start scattering out
ceilings after 22Z. There is a low potential for a band of snow
developing and moving across northcentral Oklahoma in the next
5-hours. As a result will have PROB30 for -SN which could impact
only terminals KPNC & KSWO up through 23Z.  Surface winds are
light and should remain light & variable after 00Z with all
terminals in a VFR category through the remainder of the
forecast. By 16Z surface winds may start to increase out of the
south-southwest as high pressure moves out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  21  50  34 /  60   0   0   0
Hobart OK         43  19  53  33 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  23  55  39 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           38  19  54  26 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34  18  49  28 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         41  25  50  33 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68