


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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787 FXUS64 KOUN 171754 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into Saturday evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Elevated fire weather conditions possible Monday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Isolated showers across north central Oklahoma have dissipated this morning, and the associated mid-level cloud cover has eroded. Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary has moved across the Oklahoma Panhandle this morning, and this front should continue a slow movement into parts of northwest Oklahoma this afternoon/evening. Unsure if there will be enough convergence/forcing along this boundary for an isolated storm this afternoon/evening, but if a storm can form it will dissipate by sunset. A relatively strong low-level jet will develop this evening and overnight. Model guidance is in decent agreement of develop at least widely scattered storms on the nose of this jet, especially after midnight. Storms that form will be elevated and should move rather quickly to the northeast around 40-45 mph (or similar to the 700 mb flow). Model soundings and some CAM guidance suggest elevated instability may approach the 1500-2000 J/kg range with effective shear around 50 knots. If this environment is realized, some larger size hail is possible (perhaps half dollars +). If this occurs it will likely be with the initial development of storms and mainly concentrated over north central Oklahoma. The strong low- level jet axis is expected to shift eastward during the overnight, which should focus additional develop across eastern Oklahoma. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Around sunrise Saturday, a trough will begin to move across West Texas with the entrance region of a 80-100 knot jet overspreading parts of western north Texas. Model guidance is fairly similar in developing showers and some storms across West Texas during this time with further development into western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. With rather strong mid and upper level forcing and a veered low-level flow, instability will be limited, but perhaps enough for embedded thunder. Soundings suggest a rather dry sub-cloud layer which may result in strong wind gusts as the precipitation advances eastward during the morning. It possible better forcing will overspread parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma before better instability across this area weakens. If this occurs, strong to perhaps severe storms may develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Strong winds and hail will be the main concern. A much stronger cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma before noon. This front will move quickly south, especially during the late afternoon/evening. It`s possible the front may encounter enough boundary-layer moisture for a few robust thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma through mid afternoon. Much drier air will overspread the southern Plains Saturday night and Sunday which will bring a decent taste of fall-like temperatures Sunday morning. Overnight lows across northwestern Oklahoma should drop into the upper 30s. October 15th-22nd (on average) is when northwestern Oklahoma experiences a first freeze during the fall. Perfect weather is expected Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind gusts expected by the afternoon. Beyond Monday, a pattern shift will support temperatures still above average, but below 80 across much of the area. As of right now, no major precipitation chances are expected with this upcoming pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Storms are expected to develop late this evening across northwest OK and move east into Saturday morning, with additional storms possible across southeast OK late Saturday morning. Strong winds are possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for much of the area, though ceilings could approach MVFR thresholds Saturday morning. Gusty westerly winds are expected as well Saturday morning across western into central OK behind a pacific front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 78 48 70 / 20 60 0 0 Hobart OK 61 83 47 74 / 20 50 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 83 49 73 / 20 60 0 0 Gage OK 52 77 41 72 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 62 78 44 70 / 60 40 0 0 Durant OK 70 80 52 73 / 10 70 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...08