862
FXUS64 KOUN 061750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

  - Rain chances continue thru Tuesday (mainly northwest/northern
    OK).

  - A cold front brings cooler temperatures on Tuesday.

  - Warm and dry weather then returns for the second half of the
    week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Cold front continues to make its way slowly south into northwest
Oklahoma this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible in and near the boundary through the
afternoon hours. The rain and associated precip will keep
temperatures a bit cooler this afternoon across far northwest
Oklahoma. However, elsewhere with abundant sunshine and residing in
the same airmass that has been in place the last several days,
temperatures will again top out in the mid/upper 80s and lower 90s.

Cold front will sweep south tonight as a shortwave lifts northeast
across the area. Forcing from this wave will aid in elevated showers
and thunderstorm development, to the north of the surface front,
closer to the 85MB boundary, which will be located across northwest
Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts look to remain rather light, but model
ensemble would have a 60-70% probability of receiving a quarter of
an inch from near Arnett to Alva and a 30-40% probability of getting
in excess of a half inch by Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, cooler air will filter south in the wake of the front.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the lowers 50s in northwest
Oklahoma and much of the area northwest of I-44 also in the 50s by
morning. Sixties remain farther south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Aforementioned shortwave will continue to lift northeast Tuesday and
as it does so, precip is expected to gradually diminish across the
area during the day. However models are depicting a weaker wave
moving across the area during the day and this may be just enough to
produce a few light showers throughout the day across the area.
Although most locations will remain dry.

Models continue to differ on amount of cooling behind the front with
NAM keeping some much of the northern half of Oklahoma in the 50s
Tuesday. Forecast has trended down, but not as significant as the
NAM. Currently going with the blend which has 60s and 70s across the
northern two-thirds of the area with some 80s remaining across the
south. Will need to continue to watch trends, if precip and cloud
cover linger may need to lower highs even more, especially across
the north.

Some weak waa and a minor shortwave may provide enough lift for a
few light showers across portions of western Oklahoma as we go
through the night Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, cool surface high will begin to shift east with south
winds returning to western Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm in response to that, but still expected to
only climb into the 70s across much of the northern half of Oklahoma
with 80s across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Above average temperatures are forecast late week into the
weekend as the upper ridge expands across the southern Plains,
with highs running about 10 degrees above average across much of
the area. No fronts are forecast during this period and
precipitation chances look slim underneath the ridge. Some
ensembles suggest we could see a breakdown of the ridge towards
early next week and a return of rain chances, but model spread
increases by this time so confidence is low on this scenario.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

MVFR/VFR ceilings this TAF period although there are some
indications for IFR ceilings, especially in NW OK. Scattered
showers and some storms will remain possible through Tuesday
morning across parts of northern and western OK. However, highest
chances will be in NW OK (at KWWR). A cold front is expected to
move across the area later today into early Tuesday. Winds will
shift towards the north behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  76  57  78 /   0  10  10  10
Hobart OK         59  77  56  80 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  84  59  83 /   0  10  10  10
Gage OK           52  65  52  73 /  50  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     58  71  54  76 /  20  20   0  10
Durant OK         65  87  62  83 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25