354
FXUS64 KOUN 301036
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
436 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 435 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

-Below normal temperatures persist into early this week, with a
 chance for light wintry precipitation Monday.

-Temperatures moderate Tuesday, ahead of a cold front that will
 bring colder weather late Wednesday into Thursday.

-There is a chance for light wintry precipitation Thursday into
 Thursday night.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold air mass associated with a 1038 mb surface high is
entrenched across much of the Plains in the wake of yesterday`s
strong cold front.

Northerly winds will continue to decrease tonight as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes with the departing mid-latitude cyclone.
Even so, continued cold air advection will allow for the cold
night with lows in the teens and 20s deg F. Combined with the
northerly winds, wind chills will be in the teens and single
digits this morning.

Cloud cover will increase today ahead of the next shortwave
trough. With increasing cloud cover and continued cold air
advection, afternoon highs will be well below-normal in the mid
30s to mid 40s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

By tonight, cloud cover will increase markedly as ascent
increases ahead of a positively-tiled shortwave trough approaching
from the northwest. The positively-tiled shortwave trough will
quickly track across northern Oklahoma into Kansas on Monday,
which will keep much of the synoptic-scale ascent to our north.

Overall, there has been a downward trend on any winter weather
impacts. Across northern Oklahoma, the track of the shortwave
trough continues to be unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with
the highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture appears to
be limited with the system. As a result, the probability of 1" of
snowfall has decreased and is now less than 10% near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border. Therefore, only light snow is expected
with minimal to no accumulations.

Farther to the south across west central, central, and east
central Oklahoma, warm air advection/isentropic ascent may result
in a light wintry mix with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow
all possible. The mixture of precipitation is due to a couple
factors: 1) potential of saturation below the dendritic growth
zone (i.e., supercooled water droplets) and 2) temperatures rising
above freezing. However, a dry planetary boundary layer will
likely result in much of precipitation evaporating or sublimating
before reaching the surface. It`ll likely be a scenario where
there will be a lot of mid-level echoes on the radar--but most of
it is virga. Given this, we only have a low (20%) chance of a
wintry mix. The most likely (relative) area to receive measurable
precipitation is southeast Oklahoma, where temperatures will
quickly rise above freezing.

Dry conditions are expected Monday night with a warmer night
expected with a return to southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Temperatures will moderate by Tuesday as mid-level heights rise
with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday
afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s deg F.

The next cold front will move through during the day Wednesday
as a mid/upper-level trough embedded in the polar jet stream
amplifies across the Great Lakes region. Depending on the timing
of the front`s passage, some locations may experience falling
temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This cold front will return us
to below-normal temperatures Thursday with highs likely in the
30s and 40s deg F.

In addition, there is the potential a wave in the subtropical jet
stream may provide enough synoptic-scale ascent in the front`s
wake for a chance for precipitation Thursday into Friday.
Depending on temperature profiles, there is the potential for a
wintry mix--especially across the north and west (where the air
mass will likely be colder). However, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty on the exact track of the wave and the northwest
extent of any precipitation. Therefore, the highest chance of
precipitation is across southeast/south central Oklahoma, where
temperatures are expected to be above freezing.

Similar to the previous cold air mass, temperatures are expected
to quickly moderate by Friday and Saturday with a return to
southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Northerly winds
will gradually weaken this morning and veer to the east-southeast
by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  29  38  21 /   0  10  20   0
Hobart OK         39  27  44  20 /  10   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  42  33  44  24 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           35  22  39  18 /  10  10  20   0
Ponca City OK     37  26  35  17 /   0  10  20   0
Durant OK         44  32  40  25 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13