471
FXUS63 KPAH 041015
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
515 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather conditions and above normal temperatures are
  expected through the entire weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday and
  especially Tuesday. Rainfall amounts have trended higher with
  between 0.50 to 1.50 inches now possible by Tuesday night.

- Temperatures will be more seasonable on Wednesday into the
  latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A mild start to the morning compared to normal as high pressure
remains in control over the FA. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a
well defined shortwave trough digging across California with dry air
over the southern and central Plains associated with a mid-
level ridge. Blended dewpoints lower well into 50s as model
sounding show deep-layer mixing above 800 mb. The dry air will
yield above normal temperatures with highs well into 80s while
more sufficient radiational cooling at night with lows in the
50s.

Height falls at 500 mb begin to occur on Monday as a trough
ejects downstream into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a
period of unsettled weather. In the wake of a cold front that
will move through Tuesday into Tuesday night, intervals of
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday and
will turn more numerous on Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have
trended higher with QPF, supporting 0.50 to 1.50 inches of
rainfall over a good portion of the FA while the drier CMC is
the outlier supporting less. Meanwhile, the new ECMWF AIFS Ens
has been the most persistent in supporting the potential for
higher rainfall. Given PWATs of 1.50 to 2.00 inches and skinny
CAPE model soundings, would not be surprised to see some brief
minor flooding issues from runoff, especially on Tuesday if the
recent QPF trends hold. However, severe weather is still not a
concern due to the lack of instability and shear as the better
forcing will remain north of the FA.

By Wednesday, temperatures will return to more seasonable with highs
in the mid to upper 70s as a 1030 mb sfc high pressure builds across
the Great Lakes region. Lows by the NBM are progged to fall into
lower 50s, but at least a few locations will likely reach the 40s
with 850 mb temps reaching 7 to 10C. Southerly return flow at
the end of the week may introduce another chance of pcpn along
with a slight warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Patchy fog has been transient this morning, and will quickly
diminish after 13z. VFR conditions are then expected through
the remainder of the TAF period with just a FEW mid-level clouds
around 5 kft AGL. Winds will be south-southeast around 6-8 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW