227
FXUS63 KPAH 212350
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few chances of rain remain this evening but conditions will
  begin to dry out tonight.

- Dry weather is expected for the weekend before more rain
  returns Monday into Tuesday.

- Temperatures cool down for Thanksgiving next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Looking at the latest observations and forecast trends, becoming
more concerned we could have a few gusty thunderstorms with
small hail through late tonight, mainly over parts of southeast
MO, south of Highway 13 in southern IL, and areas along and
south of I-24/I-69 in western KY. Instability and shear looks to
slightly rise in this area as the surface low passes just north
of the region, and this could support a few organized
thunderstorms. Have updated the HWO and forecast with this
information.

Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A surface wave moving through the central plains has lifted a
warm front north through the area today. South of this front,
conditions have dried with southerly low level flow allowing
temperatures to warm into the 60s. Near or north of the front,
temperatures remain in the 50s. Increased convergence associated
with the surface wave and increased ascent from the shortwave
aloft is expected to bring precipitation chances back this
evening and overnight.

High pressure filters in behind the exiting surface wave
bringing drier conditions to the region both Saturday and
Sunday. Temperatures will cool into the 50s for highs on
Saturday and low to mid 60s on Sunday. Cloud cover increases
Sunday night into Monday ahead of a disturbance moving through
the plains. This system will track eastward early next week
bringing increasing precipitation chances as early as Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. High temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 60s by Tuesday.

Behind this system, longwave troughing becomes established
across central portions of the country reinforcing surface high
pressure across the plains. A dry and cooler airmass arrives by
mid to late week with Thanksgiving continuing to look dry with
highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

LIFR/IFR cigs and vsby restrictions from fog and drizzle will
be predominate at all terminals through tonight. Ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary a few showers are possible through
04-07z, with some thunder possibly at PAH and CGI. Precipitation
will end by Saturday morning, with cigs and fog improving to
MVFR or low VFR by the end of the forecast period. Light and
variable winds will increase from the N to NW Saturday morning
at 5-10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DWS