105
FXUS63 KPAH 020458
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for Carter and
  Wayne counties in the southeast Missouri highlands.

- More widespread frost/freeze conditions are anticipated late
  Sunday night.

- A light rainfall of generally less than a quarter inch is
  expected across most of the region, but portions of western
  Kentucky, mainly over the southern Pennyrile/east of the
  Lakes, could see upward to about a third of an inch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The 12Z modeling suggests the low remains in the vicinity of the
Bootheel thru 12Z Sunday. Given that proximity, and the inherent
cloudiness associated thereof, the new guidance temps hover our
lows just above freezing for all but our 2 coldest counties,
which currently reside within the boundaries of the existing
Freeze warning. After collaboration with LSX, and with our lows
there (Carter-Wayne counties in SEMO) projected near 30
degrees, we`ll continue the Freeze Warning headline, but drop
the Watch counties further south and east, where temps should
remain above freezing. While consideration for frost was
included in the grid, the expected cloud cover muddies the
headline waters enough for us to refrain from a Frost Advisory
headline for the remaining Freeze Watch counties, effectively
ending the headline altogether.

Other than the frost(/fog) potential from any clearing sky from
our wetted grounds, we`re looking at the rainfall averaging
generally less than 1/4" over most of the area, but do see an
uptick closer to 1/3" over portions of western Kentucky; this
will be most possible mainly east of the Lakes across the
southern Pennyrile, where approaching 1/2" amounts cannot be
completely ruled out. A clap of thunder within/near the low
center itself...the chance of that happening...is low, but not
zero.

The pattern transforms after the low ultimately pushes on out,
which transitions us from the cool/damp environ to a
warmer/drier one as the new week wears on. This manifests with
our 50s/60s becoming 60s/70s with by/thru the back half of the
coming week, quite pleasant for the starting week of November.
We have one more chilly night with a more expansive frost/freeze
potential Sunday night before the moderating warmup ensues.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Shower activity is decreasing with the most robust lingering
activity between KCGI and KMDH. MVFR cigs are occurring in SW
Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile. A narrow gap between two
cloudy regions finds quick development of fog, currently located
southwest of KEVV. Additional MVFR cigs are present over
portions of S.IL/far W.KY/SEMO which will drift eastward later
on. Winds remain light through the forecast period. Some vsby
reductions are possible with clearing near sunrise, mainly in
the west. Models were more aggressive on fog in the Wabash
valley but cloud cover would limit that. Gradual thinning of
cloud cover is expected tomorrow, with the entire Quad State
dropping to SKC/FEW by the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ100-107.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...Previous Fcter
AVIATION...ATL