794
FXUS61 KPBZ 141110
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
710 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected Tuesday before a
mostly precipitation free cold front passes Wednesday morning.
The cooler air mass may create frost and localized freeze
conditions Thursday and Friday mornings. Rain may return for
portions of the region Saturday before more widespread rain
develops with a cold front Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Morning cloudiness will delay daytime heating, but is expected
  to erode by this evening.
- A dry cold front is expected to cross overnight and increase
  cloud cover.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Morning satellite shows a majority of the forecast area covered
in stratus as moisture remains stuck underneath a low level
inversion, with portions of eastern OH occasionally seeing fog
advected from the north. The combination of diurnal heating and
subsidence will help to erode area stratus but likely at a
slower rate than ensemble model means suggest given their prior
struggles in handling overnight conditions. Though ridging aloft
and the expectation for sunshine should lead to slightly above
normal temperature this afternoon, delays in stratus erosion may
cause portions of the region to under perform forecasted highs
(hi-res modeling suggests areas east of I-79 are most likely to
experience this under performance).

The overnight period should initially see less cloud cover, but
an approaching cold front favors an uptick in stratus
development after its passage amid cold advection. This front
will dive southeast after midnight but with forcing well into
Canada and meager moisture profiles, confidence remains high
that its passage will be precipitation free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in dry conditions
- Frost/freeze possible Wednesday night and Thursday night
----------------------------------------------------------------

Confidence remains high in dry conditions through the period as
a result of continued high pressure. Tonight`s dry cold front,
along with decreasing heights as a result of amplifying central
CONUS ridge, will usher in cooler, but near average,
temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will
remain firmly planted across the Great Lakes through the period.

Clear skies Wednesday and Thursday nights will promote efficient
radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to fall into the
mid/low 30s. The NBM probabilities of temperatures ranging
from 32 to 35 degrees is elevated (above 60%) for a large
portion of the region. As the growing season is ongoing, frost
and freeze headlines will likely be needed for Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. The expanse and magnitude of frost/freeze
conditions Wednesday night will dictate need for headlines the
next night, as the growing season may end for many locations on
Thursday. Regardless, Thursday night looks to be a few degrees
colder still, with many areas north and east of Pittsburgh below
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures return Friday into the weekend
- Rain chances return late this weekend

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long-range ensemble guidance remains consistent in showing the
aforementioned ridge axis pivoting over Pennsylvania by mid-day
Friday and lingering across the Northeast through early Sunday.
This will maintain dry and warmer-than-normal conditions into
the weekend.

A passing trough and its associated cold front over the Great
Lakes will likely increase chance for rain on Sunday. Current
ensemble guidance indicates 24-hour totals generally ranging
from 0.25" to 0.50" across the region within the 25th to 75th
percentile range. However, a few ensemble members indicate the
potential for higher amounts, approaching an inch in some
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Due to moisture trapped beneath of low-level inversion, MVFR
stratus (with localized areas of IFR advection fog in eastern
OH) is expected to cover most of the region this morning.
Subsidence and diurnal heating is expected to slowly erode this
layer through the day, working west to east, and will be aided
by the eastward movement of the coastal low. Various statistical
guidance struggled in the handling of cloud cover and ceiling
heights through the overnight period, so confidence in VFR
timing is lower and leans more toward the later improvement
times of Hi-res modeling and NAM model suite. DUJ/MGW/LBE are
the most likely terminals to see delays in VFR heights or
scattered coverage compared with TAF timing.

Dry and quiet conditions to start the overnight period will be
interrupted by the passage of a precipitation-less cold front
between 05z-14z Wednesday. Again, consensus guidance is bearish
on any potential MVFR or lower stratus deck whereas some hi-res
models and general conception thoughts (cold advection in NW
flow favors at least MVFR stratus) on more bullish on this
development. Forecast leans toward the latter to introduce a
lower MVFR layer after 06z, but potential exists in IFR
conditions in this stratus scenario.

.OUTLOOK...
Weak warm advection overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass may
offer potential for areas of light rain/drizzle Wednesday
morning (between 12z-18z), but probability of occurrence remains
low at this time.

Otherwise, surface high pressure with height rises aloft favor
VFR into Saturday morning before a series of shortwaves ahead of
the next cold front bring increased rain and restriction
chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...Frazier