855
FXUS65 KPIH 162229
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
429 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms still possible through tomorrow

- Some chance for showers and storms over the weekend

- Warmer temperatures return for the rest of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Northerly flow remains in place on the back side of low pressure
over portions of Montana and Wyoming. Moisture is limited, but
still enough for isolated development through this evening
across the eastern highlands and upper end of the Plain...and
perhaps from Mackay to Lone Pine. Interestingly enough, what was
there and correctly forecasted earlier this morning has
completely dissipated. Based on that and the latest higher
resolution models, even isolated coverage might be pushing it.
We opted to keep something in there for now. For tomorrow
afternoon, another "wave" drops south along the Divide for a few
showers and storms across the southeast corner. Wind-wise,
Downplain winds (northerly) have picked up across the area. We
are hitting the lower end threshold for a northeast Lake Wind
event for American Falls Reservoir, so we will keep that
ADVISORY out through early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

High pressure resurges for a bit across the state, bringing dry
weather until the weekend. The ridge breaks down as a couple of
weaker lows scoot across to our north and west. Enough monsoon
moisture is there for some showers and storms over the weekend,
but nothing too widespread or concerning at the moment. High
pressure rebounds early next week as a blocking pattern tries to
set up over the U.S. and southern Canada. Depending where that
exactly settles in will determine if we are dry under the ridge
or under southwest flow and trying to pull some monsoon moisture
our way. For now, the Blend of Models keeps us dry after
Sunday. Temperature continue to creep back up, with some low 80s
returning through Saturday and again next week...with a very
brief "cooldown" on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 427 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

The low that brought showers today will continue its eastward
movement, with CIGs finally leaving KDIJ late this evening.
Unlimited CIG and VSBY will be everywhere at that time, with
light slope-valley wind. No impacts to aviation operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Expecting minimal fire weather impacts through the early part of
next week.  General trends will be a warming trend through the
current week with above normal high temperatures returning to the
70s and 80s by tomorrow into Friday.  Only a very slight chance of
any convective activity this afternoon and evening in zone 411 and a
very slight chance Wednesday in zone 413.  The next chance will be
Saturday afternoon mainly in zones 411 and 413 continuing into
Sunday.  Dry and warm conditions return next week with high
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal again by Monday and
Tuesday.  Breeziest day will be Sunday with some wind gusts above 20
mph expected in zone 410.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...GK