014
FXUS65 KPSR 240505
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1005 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers will continue across central and eastern AZ
  through early this evening before departing east of the area.

- Patchy fog may develop across the lower deserts overnight into
  early Monday morning.

- Dry and tranquil weather returns for this upcoming workweek
  with temperatures warming near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest satellite wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis depicts
the deep cutoff low pressure system that brought widespread rain
to our forecast area is now departing into the Four Corners region.
Subsidence on the back side of the departing upper-low has allowed
for clearing skies across western AZ and southeast CA, however
southcentral AZ is still holding onto abundant low level moisture
and cloud cover which has kept temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
These temperatures are around 5-8 degrees below average for late
November. Besides a low chance for a pop up shower this afternoon,
rain chances will come to an end across the entire forecast area
by this evening. Model guidance including most HREF members are
indicating near sfc saturation across portions of the lower
deserts tomorrow morning which could result in the development of
patchy fog in low lying areas and river valleys. There could also
be pockets of denser fog with visibilities falling below 1SM at
times. Drivers should exercise caution when encountering lower
visibilities during the morning commute.

By Monday afternoon, the low pressure system will continue to lift
into the Central Plains, resulting in a return of dry and tranquil
conditions with mostly clear skies across the Desert Southwest.
Heights aloft will rise slightly in response to a building ridge
over the eastern Pacific. These rising 500 mb heights will promote
slightly warmer temperatures with afternoon highs ranging from the
upper 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts, and the low to mid
60s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Global ensemble members continue to be in great agreement that
heights aloft will steadily rise through the workweek rising to a
582-585 dm range by the end of the workweek. These rising heights
aloft will continue to promote dry and tranquil conditions
through the week along with a gradual warming trend. Temperatures
will return to near normal on Tuesday and then go slightly above
normal by the end of the workweek. Afternoon high temperatures on
Tuesday will range from the low to mid 70s across the lower
deserts and from the mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain.
Then, by the end of the workweek highs will be in the mid to upper
70s across the lower deserts and in the upper 60s to low 70s
across the higher terrain. Morning lows will go from the mid 40s
to low 50s on Tuesday to the upper 40s to mid 50s by the end of
the workweek across the lower deserts. For the higher terrain,
morning lows will go from the low 40s on Tuesday to the mid to
upper 40s by the end of the workweek.

By next weekend, global ensemble members start to differ on the
overall synoptic pattern. They all show a deep trough traversing the
region by some point either during the weekend or early the
following week, but they differ on the exact timing. They are in
good agreement that the trough will be moving down into our region
from the Pacific NW and not move down along the eastern Pacific
Ocean and then move inland like this last low pressure system did.
With this trough looking like it will not be coming from the
Pacific Ocean the system won`t be bringing a lot of moisture to
the region. PWATs currently look to only rise to a 0.5-0.7" range.
This may be enough to squeeze out some light rain showers across
the higher terrain, however, it likely won`t be enough to produce
showers across the lower deserts. With this system around a week
out and emsemble members in some disagreement things can change,
so be sure to keep checking back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern during the TAF period will reduced VIS
due to morning BR/FG. KIWA remains the most likely terminal to
observed these conditions, but there still is a fair amount of
uncertainty regarding coverage. Therefore, a TEMPO group remains
in the TAF to reflect this lower confidence. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, KPHX may see some reduced VIS as well but
there too much uncertainty exists to include any prevailing or
TEMPO groups in the TAF at this time. However, some VCFG or even
some BCFG cannot be ruled out. KSDL, and KDVT appear unlikely to
see any operational impacts. Winds during the period will resume
their diurnal trends after some extended periods of VRB to calm
conditions during much of the overnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concerns during the next 24 hours will be
potential FG development, especially at KIPL. VIS near or even
less than 1SM seem likely for the terminal between 12-15Z, but BR
may begin to cause operational impacts as early as 10Z. FG should
quickly dissipate after 15Z. At BLH, confidence regarding reduced
VIS is not as high but a TEMPO group for 5SM as been left in to
reflect at least some potential to see impacts. Winds during the
period will be light with extended periods of VRB to calm
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures are expected to continue through Monday
before rising back to near to slightly above normal by the middle
of this week. The low pressure system which brought abundant
wetting rainfall to the region will continue to depart north and
east of AZ through tonight, allowing shower activity to come to
and end and bringing dry tranquil weather back to the forecast
area. MinRHs will range from 40-60% with excellent overnight
recovery of 80-100% through Monday. Drier air will filter into
the region by the middle of the week with MinRHs bottoming out
around 25-35% by Wednesday and Thursday. Despite a few upslope
gusts in the teens to lower 20 mph range, winds will remain light
and follow normal diurnal patterns.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno