325
FXUS65 KPSR 092123
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
223 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon highs will continue to be above normal through at
  least the middle the week with record setting high temperatures
  possible today and Monday.

- A cooler and wetter weather pattern will arrive into the Desert Southwest
  by Friday and persist into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Water vapor imagery showcases a well defined upper level ridge
over the Desert Southwest. This ridge has already drove today`s
high temperature, at Phoenix Sky Harbor, above the previous record high
temperature of 88 degrees set in 2005. For Monday, temperatures
across the lower deserts will continue to be in the upper 80s to
90 degrees, 8-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
However, 500 mb heights will weaken slightly over the Phoenix
Metro areas leading to afternoon highs to be ~1-2 degrees cooler
compared to today. Further west, in the Yuma and El Centro areas
heights will remain elevated, causing afternoon highs to remain
near that 90 degree mark, close to the record high for both
locations. The record high for Yuma is 91 degrees and El Centro`s
record high is 90 degrees, both set in 1956.


&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Forecast confidence remains high that low amplitude ridging will
prevail over the Desert Southwest through at least the middle of
this week as the next storm system takes aim on coastal California
and the Pacific Northwest. Under the presence of this ridge, daily
highs across the lower deserts of AZ and southeast CA will continue
to top in the mid 80s or around 5 to 8 degrees above normal from
Tuesday through Thursday. The only sensible change in weather
conditions through the middle of this week will be the influx of
high cirrus streaming over the forecast area which will become
thicker and more extensive by Wednesday and Thursday.

Deterministic models and ensemble members are still in agreement
showing an upper-lvl trough deepening over the West Coast and
progressing inland beginning Thursday. As this occurs, a large plume
of Pacific moisture will overspread CA and slowly translate
southward into the Desert Southwest. PWAT values are forecast to
increase to around 0.8-0.9" across SE California and SW Arizona on
Thursday and 0.7-0.8" across southcentral AZ on Friday. These values
are around 150-200% of normal for mid November. With the combination
of moisture and lift ahead of the approaching trough, rain chances
will increase from W to E across our forecast area starting late
Thursday and persisting into Saturday. It is important to mention
that there are still differences in both the intensity and track of
this system. The deterministic ECMWF and EPS members continue to be
the most aggressive showing a deeper low and higher QPF totals for
our forecast area. Coincidentally, NBM PoPs have trended upward to
around 20-50% across much of the region. Due to the arrival of
negative height anomalies associated with core of the upper low, sfc
temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 70s on Friday and
potentially falling into the mid to upper 60s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No significant weather issues will exist through Monday afternoon
under clear skies. Confidence is excellent that winds will retain an
easterly component across the PHX metro throughout the period with
some localized gusts near 15kt possible during the late
morning/early afternoon. Winds over SE California will maintain a
light N/NW fetch with extended periods of nearly calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions with above normal temperatures will prevail
through the much of the work week before a weather system brings
cooler temperatures and chances for wetting rains to portions of
the area late in the week. Afternoon minRHs will mainly range
between 15- 20% each afternoon through Thursday before improving
above 30% by Friday. Overnight recoveries will range from poor to
fair over the next several nights, with the most noticeable
increase Thursday night into Friday. Winds will be light,
generally less than 15 mph and follow typical diurnal
upslope/nocturnal drainage patterns.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Salerno