653
FXUS65 KPUB 171736
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1036 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and cooler today with snow decreasing over the
  mountains.

- Dry, quiet weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with
  continued warmer than normal temperatures.

- Higher impact winter system possible for the Thursday into
  Friday timeframe, with snow for the high country and mainly
  rain forecast for the plains at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

The upper low will continue to eject to the northeast across
northern CO and WY this morning, with wrap around snow showers
continuing across the central mountains.  Another inch or two of
accumulation will be possible across the higher elevations of the
eastern Sawatch and western Mosquito ranges this morning.  Will let
the Winter Weather Advisory expire at 12z for the southwest
mountains where orographic forcing will diminish as flow aloft
becomes more northwesterly.  Otherwise, it will be windy today
across the mountains, spreading into the plains by late morning as
the surface low pushes off to the east and subsidence behind the
system helps spread westerly winds across most of the area.  Gusts
up to 50 mph will be possible in the lee of the southeast mountains
this morning, with a few higher gusts on the east slopes of the
southern Sangre De Cristos.  Elsewhere gusts up to 30 mph will be
possible across the lower elevations with some pockets of 40 mph
gusts spreading through the gaps and passes.  Kept temperatures on
the warmer side of guidance and model blends (75th percentile)
across the plains where westerly downslope winds will dominate.
Humidity values stay a just above critical fire weather thresholds,
so no fire weather highlights are anticipated, though fire danger
will still be elevated in spots given the strong winds and marginal
humidity levels (15-20% range).  Temperatures today will be around 5
to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday but still above climatological
normals.

It dries out overnight as we wait for the next system to move
onshore out west. Overnight lows will be quite a bit cooler than
this morning with lows in the 20s to low 30s for the southeast
plains and generally teens and 20s for the mountains.  High clouds
will start to increase towards dawn. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Tuesday..

Cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow, though most locations
will still see highs around 3 to 5 degrees warmer than normal. This
will mean temperatures warming into the low and mid 50s for our
mountain valleys and the Pikes Peak region, with low to mid 60s
elsewhere on the plains. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy,
especially over the high country. Precipitation is not expected
tomorrow. Winds will be mainly light and diurnally driven.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday..

Overnight lows on Tuesday night will again be cooler than tonight
but still a few degrees warmer than normal, especially for our
southeast plains. Southwest flow aloft will begin to increase as our
next low deepens over southern California early Wednesday morning.
Ensemble guidance suggests that this next system will come onshore
by Wednesday evening, though impacts will be scarce for southeast
Colorado by that time. Our southeast mountains may see some
southwesterly gusts to 30 mph or so through Wednesday afternoon, and
downsloping winds will lead to warmer temperatures for Wednesday as
well. Highs will be closer to the 10-12 degrees warmer than normal
mark for Wednesday, with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s for
mountain valleys, low 60s for the Pikes Peak region, mid to upper
60s for much of the plains, and possibly some low 70s for our far
eastern plains. Our far southwest mountains and the higher peaks of
the San Juans may begin to see some light snowfall through the late
evening hours of Wednesday as our next low approaches, though
accumulations would not be expected with this current track and
timing.

Thursday and Friday..

Though models still consistently show a system coming through in the
Thursday into Friday timeframe, there is still a lot of run-to-run
and model-to-model disagreement. In previous runs, GFS members were
the most aggressive and showed a closed low with ideal placement just
to our south. Now that model is now the further north and is a
weaker, more open wave solution, though it does close the low off
again as it moves into Kansas Friday morning. Overall, it does seem
likely that we will see a cool down, and meaningful moisture and
precipitation chances at least for the high country. Heavy snow may
be possible for some of our mountain ranges, and accumulating snow
may also be possible for the Palmer Divide and the Raton Mesa,
especially for Friday morning if current forecast timing and track
remain consistent. Timing and track will of course be the
determining factor for our plains forecast in general, but at this
time the system looks warm enough to keep precipitation chances
falling mostly as rain throughout the duration of the event for the
majority of the plains. Current trends point towards highs in the
50s for much of the area on Thursday and 40s for Friday.

Saturday Onwards..

For now, our weekend looks to be a bit of a lull between systems. Of
course, either system could speed up or slow down and change that,
but for now, our weekend looks to bring near to slightly warmer than
normal temperatures, and mainly dry, quiet weather. Models hint at
another system coming in from our southwest through the beginning of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the area over the next 24
hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUb and KALS.
Lingering snow with LIFR CIGS for high elevation sites along the
Continental Divide until 21z then improving conditions expected.
Otherwise, main concern will be winds. Westerly gusts 25-30 kts will
be possible at all three terminals roughly 20z-00z time frame, then
included wind shear wording for KCOS and KPUB from 00z until around
07z due to expected weakening surface winds, but winds remaining
strong just off the deck.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOORE