200
FXUS65 KPUB 201810
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1110 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much needed beneficial precip for most, if not all, of the region
next 24 hours; heaviest S mtn/Raton region and far eastern plains.

- Some snow flakes Palmer Divide tonight.

- Sun/Mon system looks stronger with better chance of precip most
areas

- Getting colder (but mainly dry) towards Thanksgiving (lows in
  teens plains)

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Regional radar was showing quite a bit of precip over the greater SW
United States early this AM as closed low over the Greater S
Calif/NV region lift off to the east-northeast. This system will
cross the region through tonight and will likely bring rain and high
elevation snow to most, if not all, of the region into Friday.
Overall heaviest rain will likely occur east of I-25, with the
northeastern sections of the southeast plains seeing the most qpf.
As for snow, the heaviest overall amounts will fall over the higher
elevations of the southern mtn region.

As for northern El Paso county, some snow is likely over this region
later this evening starting during the mid evening time frame.
Overall best chance of snow flakes per statistical guidance will be
late tonight into early tomorrow morning, Any accumulations will be
on grassy areas. I do expect the snow to turn the ground white, but
impacts should be low.

Overall this system should bring much needed qpf to most if not all
the region. Precip should end from south to north during the day
Friday.

Low temperatures tonight should only fall into the low/mid 30s along
the greater I-25 corridor region with upper 30s over the far eastern
plains. Mtns and Valleys will fall into the 20s. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Attention now turns to our next system moving in for the Sunday/
Monday time frame. This system now appears to be more organized and
closed off then earlier runs, and given its forecasted track,
promises to bring more higher elevation snow and rain to the region.
Per trends in DESI guidance, qpf is increasing with time region-
wide. From a pattern recognition perspective, this system will have
the potential to bring favorable upslope flow to our mtns, and we
could we may see some healthy snow fall amounts with this system
over the southern mtn region. Trends with this system will have to
be watched closely.

Later in the fcst period, as we approach the Thanksgiving time
period it appears a cooling trend will occur as highs in the 30s
and 40s plains (with lows in the teens and 20s) are expected.
It should be dry over most of the region during the holiday time
period but with the increasing NW flow aloft, snow showers will
be likely over the central mtn region. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Mainly VFR conditions at COS and PUB through the early afternoon,
with developing showers in the late afternoon and evening develops
MVFR conditions through the evening. Precipitation to be rain
at PUB, with a low chance of snow mixing in with rain at COS,
though no accumulation is expected at the terminal. Passing wave
develops northerly winds at COS and PUB aft 06Z with generally
VFR cigs slowly lifting late in the taf period.

At ALS, the first piece of the passing wave brought showers to
the terminal early this morning, with occasional MVFR conditions
persisting through the late afternoon and early evening with
passing showers. Partial clearing skies through the evening may
lead to low clouds and fog aft 06Z, and have kept MVFR cigs in
place through early Wednesday morning, with lifting cigs and VFR
conditions expected late in this taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for COZ073-075.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for COZ082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW