371
FXUS62 KRAH 060551
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak
high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic
region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the
area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM Friday...

We ended up issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for black ice and
freezing fog from now until 8 AM tomorrow morning for our
northernmost counties from Forsyth east to Vance. In these
areas, temperatures and dew points are currently in the 30-32
degree range and expected to stay there through tonight. In
addition, widespread mist and locally dense fog has developed in
these areas and is expected to linger through early tomorrow
morning according to high-res guidance like the HRRR and GLAMP.
So the threat of freezing fog and black ice is great enough to
warrant putting out an advisory. Be sure to use caution if
driving tonight.

As of 230 PM Friday...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicted continued flux of
anomalous moisture from the deep south through the southeast. The
main vort lobe that triggered today`s precipitation continues to
move east over the Mid-Atlantic.  As this feature continues east and
weakens, expect any lingering light rain across eastern areas to end
this evening.  Given the persistent pool of anomalous low-level
moisture expected tonight, there is a good signal for areas of dense
fog especially across the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Otherwise, overnight lows should dip into the upper 20s across the
north to mid 30s across the south. There could be some patchy black
ice along the NC/VA border, but these areas didn`t really accumulate
snow today so think it`ll be isolate if at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A weak short-wave will pass over the southeast on Saturday but we
should generally see wnwly flow aloft. As such, the higher PWAT
should generally remain to our south through the period.  Can`t rule
out light rain across the southeast Saturday afternoon, but again
think the chances should be fairly limited.  Daytime highs should
reach the upper 40s under generally cloudy skies.

We won`t see a change in airmass Saturday night, and as such
anomalous low-level moisture will linger over central NC. Aloft,
latest guidance also suggests we could clear out over a bunch of our
CWA behind the little weak short-wave. As such, dense fog may be
possible Saturday night/early Sunday morning across much of our
area. The HREF and REFS probabilities for less than a half mile
visibility is in the 60 to 70% range for much of our area.  We`ll
continue to monitor trends, but as of now there is a good signal in
the guidance that conceptually makes sense.

Overnight lows will dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday. . .

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Sun-Tues.
-Precip chances increase overnight Sunday into Monday.
-Dry weather expected Tuesday through late week.

High pressure will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday,
allowing a weak front to move across the region late Sunday night
into Monday. Moisture will be limited, but a few light showers are
possible. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as precip
arrives, a brief rain/snow mix is possible across the northern
Piedmont, potentially edging slightly farther south Monday morning
as colder, drier air begins to filter in behind the front.
Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, followed by a stronger
push of cool, dry air Monday night. Lows will fall into the upper
teens to lower 20s by early Tuesday. High pressure then dominates
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry conditions with highs in the low
to mid 40s and lows in the 20s Tuesday and mainly 30s Wednesday.
A clipper system will track across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
exit off the New England coast Thursday. At this time, associated
precip is expected to remain north of central NC, keeping the area
dry through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM SATURDAY...

Low clouds have settled in with ceilings below 500ft and LIFR
across all of central NC.  These conditions will continue through
mid-morning, with some dense fog possible as well by 09Z, although
confidence in fog is a little low given the amount of high clouds
streaming overhead per satellite imagery. Have kept a TEMPO for
lowering vsbys in the 09-13Z time frame.

Models then suggest some slow lifting and scattering through the
afternoon hours, though with no airmass change, would not be
surprised if sub-VFR continues in the afternoon.  Fog and low clouds
look pretty likely again tonight, perhaps settling in as early as
04Z and continuing through Sunday morning.

Outlook:  A short-wave will induce light precipitation (likely
mostly rain, but perhaps a chance for some winter weather across the
north) on Monday. VFR conditions will then persist through much of
early to middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ007>009-
021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Danco/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BLS