316
FXUS62 KRAH 111131
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into the SE through tonight. An
area of weak sfc low pressure and an attendant warm front will move
into the area on Friday and will stall or dissipate ahead of an
Arctic cold front that will move through the area late Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

* Chilly an Dry

A long wave trough and broad cyclonic NW flow aloft will remain
established over the Eastern US. At the surface, high pressure
extending from the lower MS Valley will build into SE US,
reinforcing a dry and stable airmass across central NC.

Residual low-level CAA this morning will keep temperatures well
below normal. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs will only reach the
the lower/mid 40s north to upper 40s south, approximately 8 to 12
degrees below normal. Winds will be notably lighter than Wednesday,
with sustained NWLY winds of 5 to 10mph, accompanied by modest
gustiness into the teens, strongest during the morning and into the
early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

*  Light snow/flurries possible across the northern counties late
   Thursday night/early Friday with little to no impacts

The surface high will shift overhead this evening and tonight,
allowing winds to decouple. Skies will begin mostly clear,
supporting efficient radiational cooling and a quick temperature
drop after sunset. However, strengthening broad WAA ahead of a
clipper system and weak sfc low and it`s attendant warm front will
lead to increasing and thickening mid- and high-level cloud cover.
This will impede further cooling, yielding stabilizing or slightly
rising temperatures during the second half of the night.

While the deepest saturation is forecast to remain over Virginia,
model soundings indicate the potential for fleeting, deeper moisture
and lift, with ceilings briefly lowering to ~5kft across northern
portions of the forecast area. Although virga remains the most
likely outcome, a few hours of light snow or flurries are possible
between 06z to 15z Friday, mainly along and north of HWY 64. Little
to no accumulation or impact is expected.

Precipitation should end by noon Friday with dry weather thereafter.
Skies will range from mostly cloudy across the north to mostly
clear/sunny across the south, resulting in a large temperature
gradient, with highs from near 40 north to lower/mid 50s south.

Lows Friday night will fall into the mid/upper 20s north to lower
30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 218 PM Wednesday...

* Arctic air brings much below normal temperatures Sun night and
  Mon, with near Cold Weather Advisory Criteria during this period

* Precipitation chances focused on Sun and later Wed/Thu

Quiet weather will be in place Sat ahead of an Arctic cold front
that moves through Sun. Sat will likely be the warmest day of the
extended, outside of the upcoming Wed next week, with highs
generally in the low to mid 50s. There will be some passing high
clouds across the north, but overall a sunny day.

We continue to advertise a strong and anomalous Arctic cold front
that is forecast to track through the region Sunday. Most guidance
shows the front moving through sometime during the late morning or
afternoon. However, the true Arctic air may be slower to cross over
the higher terrain to our NW, potentially not arriving until Sunday
evening. Either way, it looks gusty Sunday with the tight pressure
gradient, with NW winds of 25-30 mph. Highs will be in the upper 30s
to upper 40s NW to SE. Along/ahead of the front, guidance continues
to depict a chance of rain/snow mainly US-1 and to the east. This
looks mainly like a cold air chasing the precipitation scenario,
meaning that snow chances are somewhat limited. However, if the
trough can dig further south into NC as one ensemble cluster
suggests, would not be surprised if a few light snow/flurries could
occur early Sunday evening. Otherwise, precipitation chances are
limited. The main story is the bitter cold temperatures Sun night
with low to mid teens and wind chills in the single digits with NW
wind gusts of 15-25 mph into early Mon. A Cold Weather Advisory may
indeed be needed for this period.

A near 1040 mb Arctic high settles over the area Mon, with highs
well below normal in the mid/upper 30s and lows in the teens to low
20s. A warming trend returns Tue/Wed under quasi-zonal flow with
highs back into the 40s and eventual 50s. The next chance of
precipitation (rain) may not be until late Wed or Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Predominately VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Disturbances embedded in the cyclonic flow
aloft will support periods of broken mid and high clouds through the
period, most prevalent tonight into Friday morning. During this
time, a brief period of light snow or flurries are possible across
the northern TAF sites; however coverage and intensity appear too
limited to result in restrictions.

Occasional nwly gustiness will be possible today, strongest after
daybreak and into early afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

Outlook: An Arctic cold front moving into the area could bring
a light rain-snow mix and associated sub-VFR restrictions late
Saturday night and early Sunday. Additionally, strong and gusty post-
frontal nnwly surface winds are expected Sun afternoon and evening,
likely producing crosswind concerns at terminals.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CBL