643
FXUS61 KRLX 160222
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1022 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended heat wave builds Sunday through next week amid
mainly dry weather courtesy of an upper level ridge.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

Given afternoon mixing, did tweak overnight low temperatures a
couple (to few) degrees lower across much of the CWA. Otherwise,
it will be a quiet night ahead, with perhaps just a bit of very
patchy river valley fog across portions of far southern WV,
southwest VA, and northeast WV where rain fell yesterday. But in
general, not expecting much as surface flow veers to downsloping
conditions overnight and the boundary layer becomes slightly
more turbulent as the night progresses.

As of 429 PM Saturday...

Made minor updates to temperatures through this evening to match
the latest trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains
on track.

As of 109 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Although Heat Index values will likely remain below advisory
  criteria Sunday, the air will still feel uncomfortably hot and
  humid. Remember to practice heat safety!

Comfortable weather will continue through the rest of today with
highs in the 70s across the mountains and the lower to middle
80s across the lowlands. Expect one more comfortable night
tonight before uncomfortable weather arrives. Lows Sunday
morning will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday will be noticeably hotter and more humid as winds shift
back out of the south, bringing more Gulf moisture back into the
region. Dew points in the middle 60s will return by Sunday
afternoon with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 90s
across the lowlands and the upper 80s in the mountains. Heat
index values should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria
Sunday afternoon, topping out in the lower to middle 90s in the
hottest spots.

Given the stretch of more comfortable weather we`ve had
recently, the drastic change to hot and humid weather will be
quite a shock to the system. Remember to practice heat safety
during this time. This can include drinking plenty of water and
electrolyte containing beverages, taking frequent breaks in the
shade or the air conditioning, remembering to not leave pets or
children unattended in vehicles, and frequently checking on the
elderly and sensitive groups.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Heat wave initiates next week.
* Excessive Heat Watch in effect Monday through Friday.

Ample upper level high pressure across the southeastern US Sunday
night will move overhead by Monday, remaining in place through
Tuesday. This system will block any shortwave over our area through
this period.

However, H850 flow turns southwest pumping rich theta-e airmass into
our area. Dewpoints in the mid 60s Sunday night will increase to the
lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggests PWATs above 2
standard deviation from climatology from 1.6 to 2 inches. Mostly
sunny skies will provide the heat needed to destabilize the
atmosphere. Local soundings shows a slender tall CAPE (equilibrium
level about 40kft), and low level mixing signatures Monday afternoon
and evening. Under a high CAPE (+2500 J/Kg) and low deep shear
environment, expect at least isolated strong-slow moving
thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable to produce heavy
rain and strong wind gusts. SPC has the area outlooked just in
general thunderstorms for now. The same environment will persist
into Tuesday, with few slow-moving strong convection during the
afternoon and evening hours possible.

A second weather hazard will be the building heat wave across the
region. Monday will feel hot, with highs in the mid 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s higher elevations. Heat index
will reach the upper 90s, with few spots reaching 100 degrees across
the lowlands, requiring a heat advisory for some areas on Monday.
Since it may be a long stretch of heat through the end of the week,
will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Monday through Friday,
transitioning into advisory or warning depending on weather
conditions. As humidity and heat increases Tuesday, heat index
values exceeding 100 will be more widespread, requiring continuation
or upgrades of heat headlines Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs at some
locations. Please see the climate section below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week.

High pressure remains in control Wednesday night through the end of
the week, remaining mainly dry and hot. Afternoon convection cannot
be entirely rule out due to increasing moisture and heat. However
confidence is low due to high pressure at the surface and aloft, so
will keep the area dry for now.

Mid to late week highs are currently forecast to approach or even
exceed record high temperatures at some of the climate sites. Please
see the climate section below for more details.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of tonight.
There is the potential for some very patchy fog late tonight
(mainly river valleys), perhaps affecting CKB/EKN. Did include
MVFR VSBY at EKN later tonight with fog, but left any mention
out of the CKB TAF for the time being due to low confidence.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail throughout Sunday amid a
FEW/SCT Cu field across portions of the region.

Light NW/NE surface flow at present will gradually veer to SE
later tonight, and eventually SW by Sunday afternoon. Occasional
breezes of 15-20 kts are possible late tonight and on Sunday
in/near the higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief VSBY restrictions with fog may or may
not occur later tonight at CKB/EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 06/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 1010 PM Saturday...

A prolonged heat wave builds Sunday through next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some
locations on several days. The records for Sunday, June 16
to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

          Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
       Sunday, 6/16  |   Monday, 6/17 |  Tuesday, 6/18 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 93 / 97 (1952) | 94 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) |
HTS | 95 / 97 (1952) | 96 /100 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) |
CKB | 91 / 95 (2022) | 95 / 96 (1967) | 95 / 96 (1936) |
PKB | 92 / 97 (1952) | 96 / 98 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) |
BKW | 84 / 93 (1952) | 88 / 93 (1936) | 89 / 93 (1936) |
EKN | 87 / 93 (1952) | 91 / 92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994) |
--------------------------------------------------------
     Wednesday, 6/19 | Thursday, 6/20 |  Friday, 6/21  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 96 / 98 (1919) | 96 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) |
HTS | 96 / 98 (1994) | 98 /100 (1931) | 99 / 99 (1953) |
CKB | 96 / 94 (1994) | 96 / 94 (1931) | 95 / 98 (1953) |
PKB | 96 / 95 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) |
BKW | 89 / 90 (1944) | 89 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1953) |
EKN | 94 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) |
--------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may
be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum
temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave
versus the all-time June high temperature records.

     Max Forecast  All-time June Record
-----------------------------------------
CRW |    97      |       105 (1931)     |
HTS |    99      |       105 (1930)     |
CKB |    96      |       100 (1925)     |
PKB |    98      |       100 (1988)     |
BKW |    90      |       100 (1936)     |
EKN |    94      |        96 (2012)     |
-----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW