162
FXUS61 KRLX 151719
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
119 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a bit cooler than yesterday. However, an extended
stretch of hot and dry weather will begin Sunday and last much
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 109 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Although Heat Index values will likely remain below advisory
  criteria Sunday, the air will still feel uncomfortably hot and
  humid. Remember to practice heat safety!

Comfortable weather will continue through the rest of today with
highs in the 70s across the mountains and the lower to middle
80s across the lowlands. Expect one more comfortable night
tonight before uncomfortable weather arrives. Lows Sunday
morning will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday will be noticeably hotter and more humid as winds shift
back out of the south, bringing more Gulf moisture back into the
region. Dew points in the middle 60s will return by Sunday
afternoon with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 90s
across the lowlands and the upper 80s in the mountains. Heat
index values should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria
Sunday afternoon, topping out in the lower to middle 90s in the
hottest spots.

Given the stretch of more comfortable weather we`ve had
recently, the drastic change to hot and humid weather will be
quite a shock to the system. Remember to practice heat safety
during this time. This can include drinking plenty of water and
electrolyte containing beverages, taking frequent breaks in the
shade or the air conditioning, remembering to not leave pets or
children unattended in vehicles, and frequently checking on the
elderly and sensitive groups.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Heat wave initiates next week.
* Excessive Heat Watch in effect Monday through Friday.

Ample upper level high pressure across the southeastern US Sunday
night will move overhead by Monday, remaining in place through
Tuesday. This system will block any shortwave over our area through
this period.

However, H850 flow turns southwest pumping rich theta-e airmass into
our area. Dewpoints in the mid 60s Sunday night will increase to the
lower 70s by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggests PWATs above 2
standard deviation from climatology from 1.6 to 2 inches. Mostly
sunny skies will provide the heat needed to destabilize the
atmosphere. Local soundings shows a slender tall CAPE (equilibrium
level about 40kft), and low level mixing signatures Monday afternoon
and evening. Under a high CAPE (+2500 J/Kg) and low deep shear
environment, expect at least isolated strong-slow moving
thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable to produce heavy
rain and strong wind gusts. SPC has the area outlooked just in
general thunderstorms for now. The same environment will persist
into Tuesday, with few slow-moving strong convection during the
afternoon and evening hours possible.

A second weather hazard will be the building heat wave across the
region. Monday will feel hot, with highs in the mid 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s higher elevations. Heat index
will reach the upper 90s, with few spots reaching 100 degrees across
the lowlands, requiring a heat advisory for some areas on Monday.
Since it may be a long stretch of heat through the end of the week,
will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Monday through Friday,
transitioning into advisory or warning depending on weather
conditions. As humidity and heat increases Tuesday, heat index
values exceeding 100 will be more widespread, requiring continuation
or upgrades of heat headlines Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs tying the
records at some locations.

     Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------------
-        Mon, 6/17     |Tue, 6/18     |   Wed, 6/19    |   Thu, 6/20
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 94 / 98 (1944) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 96 / 98 (1919) | 96 / 99 (1931)
HTS | 95 /100 (1936) | 97 / 98 (1944) | 98 / 98 (1994) | 98 / 100(1931)
CKB | 94 / 96 (1967) | 96 / 96 (1936) | 96 / 96 (1994) | 96 / 94 (1931)
PKB | 95 / 98 (1936) | 97 / 98 (1944) | 97 / 98 (1994) | 97 / 97 (1931)
BKW | 88 / 93 (1936) | 90 / 93 (1936) | 90 / 93 (1936) | 89 / 92 (1931)
EKN | 91 / 92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) | 93 / 92 (1931)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week.

High pressure remains in control Wednesday night through the end of
the week, remaining mainly dry and hot. Afternoon convection cannot
be entirely rule out due to increasing moisture and heat. However
confidence is low due to high pressure at the surface and aloft, so
will keep the area dry for now.

Mid to late week highs are currently forecast to approach or even
exceed record high temperatures at some of the climate sites.

As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are:
* Drink plenty of fluids
* Wear light, loose fitting clothing
* Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations
* Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle
* Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 108 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon
and into tonight. Sunday will likely also remain VFR. Light
winds out of the north-northeast will continue through this
evening, turning mostly calm overnight. Winds will shift out of
the south Sunday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated dense fog cannot be ruled out in
the sheltered mountain valleys overnight (KEKN).






EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday
     evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMC