Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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135 FXUS61 KRNK 170059 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 759 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A quick moving high pressure will bring mostly clear skies, gust winds, and dry conditions for Monday and early Tuesday which will cause an increased fire danger risk across the area. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, a frontal boundary moves through the region, which will bring the weeks first rain chances to the area. Rainfall totals look to remain light with this system at this time for much of the area. Another weather disturbance may move through the region late in the work week and early portion of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Dry and windy conditions continue through the night. 2) Fire weather concerns continue for the region on Monday. 3) Temperatures will be below normal on Monday. Clear skies will continue through tonight, which will allow for good radiational cooling to occur. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 30s, with upper 20s for the higher elevations. Winds remain gusty at times tonight, especially along/west of the Blue Ridge. Winds increase slightly again tomorrow, though they will be lower than what occurred on Sunday. Very low dewpoints in the teens, along with low RH values in the teens/20s and gusty winds will allow for another increased fire danger day on Monday. Highs tomorrow will be cool, in the 40s/50s due to the strong northwesterly flow. Winds finally reduce Monday evening as high pressure moves into the area. A couple updates were made to the forecast, the first being to lower dewpoints as observations were around 5 degrees lower than what was previously forecast. The second change was to slightly increase wind gusts to match current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Previous forecast discussion... As of 100 PM EST Sunday... The upper level trough associated with the passing cold front overnight is expected to quickly move east towards the Northeast by Monday morning. This will allow upper level ridging to start to slowly build back into the region, with the area primarily on the western side of the trough, this will continue to lead to gusty winds as a slight resurgence in the northwest 850mb jet develops early Monday morning. These winds will likely mix down to the surface through the mid morning and afternoon hours on Monday leading to continued fire weather concerns for much of the area since RH values look to drop into the upper teens and 20s on Monday afternoon. These continued gusty winds of 20-25 mph out of the northwest combined with the aforementioned RH values and very dry fuels across the area will likely lead to a fire danger statement being issued for Monday across the area. By Monday evening, surface high pressure looks to settle over the region, which should quickly diminish gusty winds across the area, with near calm winds and clear skies expected for much of the night on Monday. With much of the area behind the cold front on Monday, temperatures look to be much cooler, with mid to upper 40s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 50s east of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Rain chances increase late Tuesday as a disturbance moves through. 2) Cool temperatures early week quickly rise to above normal midweek. High pressure will sit over the Mid-Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday, with dry conditions expected. Westerly winds will increase to around 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph possible in the afternoon before winds shift to the south. The combination of very low dewpoints and elevated winds could lead to an increased level of fire danger on Tuesday. As the winds shift to the south, warm/moist air will advect into the area. Most of Tuesday will remain quiet until a warm front across Kentucky approaches Tuesday evening. A disturbance will form along the now stationary front, and moves east into our area. This will cause showers to develop and move through overnight into Wednesday morning. A few rumbles of thunder may even be possible in the NC/VA mountains closer to the front. Best rain chances will be north of the NC/VA state line, with widespread showers in WV. By mid-morning Wednesday, the rain clears out, leaving the rest of the period quiet for most of the area. The western facing mountains will continue to see isolated rain chances, due to an inverted trough that forms in the Ohio River Valley Wednesday evening. Rain totals remain relatively low, due to the nature of the fronts and systems moving through the area. Around a tenth of an inch is expected area-wide, with higher amounts along/west of the Blue Ridge, around 0.25 up to 0.50" in WV. Temperatures remain cool on Tuesday, with highs in the 50s/60s, with the higher elevations in WV remaining in the upper 40s. By Wednesday, southerly flow will cause highs to return to above normal, mainly in the 60s to around 70. Overnight lows will be chilly Tuesday morning, in the 20s/30s, but also increase with the WAA, into the 40s/50s by Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Rain chances each day west of the Blue Ridge, with area-wide chances Friday night. 2) Above normal temperatures last until Sunday behind a cold front. The forecast becomes less certain for the late week into the weekend, as another system develops in the Great Plains and moves east towards our area. The stationary front to our south finally moves north into the Northeastern US, with most of the Eastern CONUS then in the warm sector of the system. However, as the low pressure system moves east then northeast, the upper trough weakens and lifts north, with the low being absorbed by a large system in Southern Canada. A new low then forms across the Deep South along the southern jet stream. A cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday, increasing rain chances to around 40-50%, with slightly higher chances for the western mountains. A disturbance will still remain in the Deep South, but models show varying solutions, with some models keeping the system just to our south as it passes by, while others show it taking a northeasterly route and bringing widespread rainfall into the area Sunday into early next week. This will be monitored since it is still a week out, but a good chance of widespread rain could impact our area late next weekend. Above normal temperatures for this time of year will be expected through most of the period. Highs will be in the 60s/70s each day through Saturday, with some areas in the Piedmont reaching upper 70s on Friday. By Sunday after the FROPA, highs fall slightly into the 50s/60s, which is still above normal. Lows will be in the 40s/50s, with some 30s in the higher elevations returning Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM EST Sunday... Although VFR flight conditions will persist through the entire TAF period, the main concern will be the strong winds. Northwest winds are reducing post-sunset, but will remain gusty at times through the night, with 20-30 knot gusts possible everywhere except DAN/LYH, where gusts will be 10-20 knots overnight. Winds increase again tomorrow, but will not be as strong as they were yesterday. By late afternoon, wind gusts finally reduce to below 20 knots at all terminals. Aside from gusty winds, VFR conditions persist into Monday night. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Winds should become benign briefly Monday evening and Tuesday, resulting in VFR conditions. Some MVFR restrictions look possible Tuesday night/Wednesday with a passing system bringing rainfall to the area. VFR conditions look to return for the latter half of the week, though scattered showers will remain possible along/west of the Blue Ridge. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 700 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: 1) The critical fire risk has now ended as RH values rise. 2) A heightened risk of fire danger continues for Monday. Update: Dewpoints have been observed around 5 degrees lower than originally forecast. Therefore, dewpoints were lowered for tonight and Monday morning. Winds have also been gusting higher than forecast in the Piedmont, so winds were also increased slightly, though they do briefly reduce overnight. Tomorrow will be another fire danger day, as winds remain strong along with low dewpoints. The combination of continued gusty winds in the 20-30+ mph range, low RH values dropping into the teens and 20 percent range, along with dry fuels on the ground will result in a critical fire weather day again on Monday. Fortunately, winds do look to diminish some on Monday; however, RH values will likely be much lower areawide, with more widespread upper teens RH values possible in the Piedmont. This continued fire weather concerns will likely lead to a fire weather SPS for much of the area on Monday. Burning will continue to be discouraged for much of the area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB/JCB NEAR TERM...EB/JCB SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...EB/JCB FIRE WEATHER...BMG/EB/JCB