244
FXUS61 KRNK 011112
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
612 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley today, and pushes
east northeast into the Northeast by this evening. All the
while, low pressure develops along the front off the Gulf
Coast. This system will advance into our area tonight through Tuesday
with another round of wintry weather changing to rain. High
pressure returns Tuesday night, with brief upslope snow showers
possible across SE West Virginia.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) New Winter Weather Advisory Goes into Affect tonight.

2) More significant Freezing Rain is expected for locations
   along and west of the Blue Ridge tonight into Tuesday
   morning.

Today will be a quick transition between two systems as high
pressure skirts quickly north of the region through the Ohio
valley and into the Northeast by this evening. As this happens
very dry air will advect into the region from the northwest and
north as the High pressure moves east. This dry air will
eventually help cool the region as precipitation from the
southeast moves into the area late Monday evening. Much of the
precipitation will likely evaporate as it falls early on;
however, as the dry air is eventually worked over, the
atmosphere should cool down to below freezing through much of
the boundary layer from 850mb to the surface across Mountain
locations. Some areas overnight across the Alleghany highlands
may initially start as light snow showers before a quick
transition to freezing rain develops as a 45 knot southwesterly
jet quickly develops a plus 2-3 degree Celsius warm nose around
the 800-700mb level. This warm nose and surface temperatures
will continue to rise through the early morning hours, with rain
taking over as the dominant precipitation across the region
during the mid morning hours on Tuesday.

Overall, before the transition to all rain occurs, areas along
and west of the Blue Ridge are forecast to see totals ranging
from 0.10" to 0.25" of freezing rain, with the Alleghany
highlands and Greenbrier river valley potentially seeing up to
half an inch of snow prior to a freezing rain transition.

Temperatures today generally look to climb into the low to mid
40s across the region, with lows falling into the upper 20s to
low 30s by the early evening as freezing rain starts across the
region. Temperatures will only rise throughout the overnight
hours as warm air advection from the southeast slowly brings
temperatures above freezing through the mid morning hours on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas along/west of
the Blue Ridge through noon Tuesday.

2) Mountain upslope snow showers continue into Tuesday night for WV.

3) Below normal temperatures through the period.

A low pressure system across the Carolinas will be moving up the
East Coast Tuesday morning. A high pressure system over the
Northeastern US will be exiting the region, but enough cold air
damming will be in place to allow for wintry precipitation to occur
during the early Tuesday morning hours. By daybreak, freezing rain
will be the only wintry precipitation occurring, mainly north of I-
64, with a few spots in the higher elevations along the Blue Ridge
further south. The wedge fully erodes by late morning, with a
miserable cold rain ending by early afternoon as warmer air from the
south slowly raises temperatures to above freezing area-wide. Behind
the system on the back side, northwest flow increases, with winds
gusting 20-25 mph west of the Blue Ridge. This upslope flow will
cause snow showers that continues for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night for the western mountains in WV as an upper-level trough
passes through, but this also fades quickly as high pressure builds
in. The high sits over the region through Thursday, when a weak cold
front pushes through, possibly bringing a few flurries to Western
Greenbrier County in WV Thursday afternoon. Most of the area will
remain dry, as the upper-level trough stays to the north. High
pressure from the Midwest then builds back in for the late week.

QPF totals will be modest, with around 0.50-0.75" expected area-
wide, most falling before daybreak on Tuesday. Snow totals remain
light, with a quick dusting possible in the higher elevations
along/west of the Blue Ridge, with possibly up to an inch in Western
Greenbrier late Tuesday with the upslope flow. Ice accumulations
will be low but still impactful, with a glaze across most of the
area, except for the southern Piedmont. Along/west of the Blue Ridge
is expected to see between 0.10-0.20" of ice, with locally higher
amounts possible on the ridgetops. Due to these totals, a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect through noon Tuesday along/west of the
Blue Ridge.

Temperatures remain below normal, with highs on Tuesday/Wednesday in
the 30s/40s, slightly increasing Thursday across the Piedmont into
the low 50s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 20s, with a few
teens in the highest elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Another round of wintry precipitation possible Friday.

2) Rain chances again late weekend, with milder air, though
temperatures remain below normal.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley moves into southern New England
on Friday, and causes a weak wedge to form across the Mid-Atlantic
area. Another storm system is expected to develop along the southern
jet stream and move into the Carolinas, though the strength and path
is uncertain. The latest model runs have backed off of the moisture
across our area, with some light rain/snow for midday Friday before
clearing out Friday night. Due to the variability in the models,
confidence in any wintry precipitation is low, but the setup remains
favorable if moisture and cold air can combine over our area. PoPs
are kept around 50%, but model trends will be worth watching as
these could lower. A zonal flow aloft along with surface high
pressure again builds into the area for Saturday into early Sunday,
before another system moves through during the day Sunday. This
system will be to our north across the Great Lakes, keeping all
precipitation as rain. The front moves through late Sunday, with a
large high pressure settling in for early next week, with quieter
weather expected.

Temperatures will continue to remain below normal, particularly on
Friday, as highs will only be in the 30s area-wide. Highs then
recover into the 40s/50s for the weekend. Lows will remain
consistent, in the 20s to around 30 degrees each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Monday...

VFR to MVFR restrictions this morning as west/northwest winds
are leading to a shallow upslope cloud deck across SE West
Virginia and into portions of southwest Virginia. This has led
to off and on MVFR restrictions at BCB, and more continuous MVFR
restrictions at BLF and LWB. These restrictions look to clear
by the mid morning hours as high pressure continues to work its
way across the region. Restrictions look to completely lift
during the 12-14 UTC timeframe. VFR conditions look to prevail
through much of the TAF period, with some freezing rain just
starting to reach BLF and BCB by the 06 UTC timeframe on
Tuesday. This freezing rain/rain along with more widespread
MVFR CIGs looks to spread north and east to all remaining
terminals. As the overnight hours progress into the early
morning hours, MVFR restrictions will eventually decrease to IFR
and LIFR restrictions at nearly all terminals through the
remainder of the taf period. Some LLWS also can`t be ruled out
at BLF towards the 09-12 utc timeframe on Tuesday.


Winds look to transition from west/northwest early today to
northerly and eventually southeasterly by this evening.
Overall, sustained winds should remain around 5-10 knots
throughout the day, with downslope wind gusts increasing to
15-20 knots at BLF once winds turn out of the southeast this
evening. All other terminals look to remain in the 5-10 knot
gust range through the taf period.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Return to VFR for most by Wednesday-Thursday, slower at BLF
Wed. Friday yet another storm system looks to bring wintry
weather and poor flying weather to the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/WP