295
FXUS61 KRNK 241748
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1248 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions through tonight,
with increasing clouds this evening. The next weather system
nears from the west on Tuesday, bringing chances of rain
through Wednesday. A more potent front moves through the region
on Wednesday and a much colder airmass is expected for
Thanksgiving and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Pleasant weather today with increasing clouds this evening
and tonight.

2) Rain chances increase Tuesday with gusty winds across the
ridges.


Upper trough will swing through the Plains this evening and into
the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. High pressure providing sunny
skies and dry conditions will slide east into the Atlantic
tonight. Warm air advection will increase through the overnight
in advance of an approaching frontal boundary associated with
the upper wave progged to move north of the region. In response,
will see increase cloud cover and eventually some showers/drizzle
developing along the Blue Ridge late tonight into early
Tuesday.

Better chance for rain comes late morning and into the
afternoon/evening as the front moves closer to the region, but
overall rainfall amounts still appear to be light, around 0.25
inches or less.

Increasing southerly jet will result in gusty winds along the
ridges, especially on the downslope side of the western slopes.
Some gusts into the 20mph range, perhaps around 30mph at times
for areas from Burkes Garden to Bluefield and along the I77
corridor in West Virginia.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain likely leading up to Thanksgiving Day.

2) Frigid and very dry air return later this week.

Active weather period still likely as we head into Thanksgiving.
A surface low pressure system will bring a warm and cold front
to the area and a good chance of precipitation Tuesday and
Wednesday. The cold front will not be particularly strong and
the warm front will bring in warm and humid air from the south.
Conditions at ridgetops may be a little gusty from the southwest
due to a low level jet that passes through as well. Wednesday
will be the warmest day before a stronger cold front arrives to
bring in much colder and drier air. Wednesday`s high
temperatures will likely be in the lower to mid-60s along and
west of the Blue Ridge and in the lower 70s east of the Blue
Ridge. Dew points will also be in the 50s for most of the region
and possibly reaching the lower 60s in the Piedmont/Foothills.
The rain that accompanies this system will be scattered and it
is still difficult to know how much rain will follow between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensemble models suggest that most of the
rain will be in along the Blue Ridge, especially in North
Carolina. Again, much of the precipitation amounts will be based
on the direction of the storms relative to the mountains. Even
so, the ensemble models are confident that most of the area will
receive at least 0.25" of rain with more spotty locations
receiving 0.50-0.75."

A second and stronger cold front, carried by a potent mid-level
low, will pass through Wednesday evening. Colder and drier air
from Canada will then rush in. While Wednesday afternoon will
have highs in the 60s and lower 70s, Thursday morning will have
lows in the 20s and 30s. In addition, winds after the cold
front`s passage will increase and gust to 25-35 mph along and
west of the Blue Ridge. Wind chill values will be very cold
Thanksgiving morning and more so on Friday morning. In fact,
Friday morning`s wind chills may be in the single digits along
and west of the Blue Ridge and in the teens to lower 20s towards
the Piedmont/Foothills. Dew points will collapse into the teens
and 20s, raising the issue of wildfires Thursday and Friday.
While relative humidity and winds send a signal for fire
weather, the rain in the middle of the week will play a
significant factor in risks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold and dry conditions continue into the weekend.

2) Another frontal system approaches by early next week.

Weather for this part of the forecast period will be mostly
quiet thanks to a surface high pressure system that moves
through the area this weekend. The cold and dry air will remain,
though winds will calm down. Thursday afternoon will have some
leftover gusty winds to raise the concern of wildfires, but this
will be dependent on how much rain falls before Thanksgiving.
Otherwise, another frontal system is set to approach the region
by early next week. Temperatures and dew points will increase as
it gets closer and cloud cover will begin to expand again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Monday...

Widespread VFR with clear skies this afternoon. A gradual
increase in upper clouds this evening and overnight, but should
overall remain VFR through daybreak. Increasing moisture ahead
of an approaching front will continue to reduce cigs while also
increasing rainfall chances. Some showers/drizzle will increase
along the Blue Ridge from TNB to HLX, along with increasingly
lowering cigs late Tuesday morning. Some showers of rain may
reach into BLF/LWB late in the period as well. Expecting sub-VFR
by late in the TAF period for areas along and west of the Blue
Ridge.

Winds increase overnight and Tuesday for the higher elevations
as a result of a strengthening low level jet. South to SSE winds
with be gusty into the 20kt range at BLF by late Tuesday
morning.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Rain and sub-VFR conditions continue through Tuesday night and
into Wednesday to all TAF sites. A strong front will increase
winds Wednesday night and into Thursday. Some low-level wind
shear will be possible. VFR conditions return Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG