478
FXUS61 KRNK 011835
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
135 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Monday night into
Tuesday due to the primary hazard of freezing rain. By the middle of
the week, drier and colder air settles in. Model guidance recently
reduced the likelihood for another winter system this weekend
so the remainder of the week`s weather may be benign.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Winter Weather Advisory expanded eastward due to Freezing Rain
Hazard.

The main headline difference from the forecast earlier this morning
is the Winter Weather Advisory has expanded a little eastward due to
the potential for more widespread freezing rain. Surface
temperatures flirting around freezing overnight in the VA Piedmont
will increase the likelihood of ice. Between a trace and a tenth of
an inch of ice accumulation is forecast for the added counties.
Elsewhere, the forecast has not changed too much. Freezing rain is
expected to be the dominant precipitation type between midnight and
sunrise on Tuesday. Highest ice accumulations are likely to be
between 0.10-0.20 inches but localized areas could see ice totals of
a quarter inch. Snow will be concentrated along I-64 and but even in
this location most of the area will only see between a trace and
half an inch. Western Greenbrier may see between 1-2" of snow. By
mid-Tuesday morning, most of the precipitation will have
transitioned to rain and the system will out of the region by the
afternoon. Some upslope snow may linger in Western Greenbrier,
thus why they may receive more snowfall amounts. Total rainfall
amounts are dependent on what converts to ice and snow, but
places that only receive rain may have between 0.50-1.00".

Lastly, winds will start off easterly/southeasterly from the wedging
of a surface high pressure system to our northeast but will become
northwesterly as a surface low moves to our east and a surface high
pressure system starts to approach from our west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Mainly dry with colder than normal temps.

Keeping this part of the forecast dry, though a front does push
across Thursday, moisture is limited as it arrives from the
west/northwest. Cloud cover could linger into Wed morning over the
mountains behind departing Tuesday system. Not out of the question
to have some freezing drizzle along those western slopes of WV
Tuesday evening.

Highs will continue to run 5 to 15 degrees below normal while lows
will be just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1217 PM EST Monday

Key Messages:

1) Trend is for less impact from next system Friday into Saturday
but not totally dry.

2) Low confidence for the weekend into Monday forecast but leaning
dry.

Trend in the models/ensembles is to have a stronger northern stream
trough that shunts the southern stream system further south. This in
turn will keep better precip chances over the southeast U.S. Still
some models/ensembles have precip chances into our area, so cannot
discount that. Leaned toward a blend of the models, which still
looks like snow changing to rain scenario Friday, then back to snow
Friday night over portions of the area. Wedge may allow for some
freezing precip as well, but confidence is low on ice, based on
track of the low from the Gulf Coast to off the SC/NC coast. Models
keep this low weak until it gets well east of Virginia. Could see
some deformation zone/upper enhanced precip into Saturday, with
precip mainly changing back to rain, except some mix in the
mountains.

Beyond Saturday, though another quick moving upper system/front
pushes across Sunday with low chance pops.

Confidence remains low on the overall wintry setup this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently in place are forecast to persist through
midnight EST Tuesday, with sustained winds from the east-southeast at
less than 10kts. Gusts will increase, and clouds lower thereafter as
low pressure approaches from the west.

Coverage of precipitation will increase significantly from the
southwest during the 05Z to 07Z timeframe as low pressure enters the
area. The arrival of precipitation will cause ceilings to drop to
low MVFR/IFR levels very soon afterward. With temperatures below
freezing across a large portion of the mountains, precipitation will
enter as a brief period of snow, before quickly changing to a
mixture of sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation will fall at a
moderate rate at times which, in addition to reduced visibilities
into the 2SM to 4SM range, could result in a 0.10 to 0.20 of an inch
accumulations of ice on elevated objects in the vicinity of
BCB/LWB/ROA/LYH. Icing will not be as heavy at ROA, though as much
as 0.10 inch will be possible there. Temperatures will remain just
warm enough at DAN to fall as rain.

Temperatures will warm gradually after sunrise Tuesday, with
freezing rain coming to an end from southwest to northeast through
the morning as temperatures rise above freezing. Most airports will
be above freezing by 16Z Tuesday, though a few pockets of freezing
rain may linger into early afternoon. IFR conditions will persist
through the remainder of the period however.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Return to VFR for most by Wednesday-Thursday, though the progression
to become VFR will be slower at BLF. For Friday, another storm
system will approach the lower Mid-Atlantic to bring wintry weather
and degraded flying conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...NF