648
FXUS61 KRNK 271756
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1256 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery conditions will remain into Friday morning as another
upper disturbance passes across. High pressure builds across
Saturday. Low pressure and associated front brings the next
chance of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday, with some
wintry mix possible at the onset.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Blustery and cold through Friday morning.

2) Some light snow accumulation in the WV mountains late
tonight.

A lull in the winds this afternoon will pick up again later
tonight as another disturbance arrives with more cold advection
and a low level jet of 25-40kts. This time, the stronger winds
stay above the inversion, so not expecting any gusts over 45
mph. Most will have gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

This shortwave, however, does sink further south, and the axis
suggests better lift over the WV mountains. Sounding profiles
keep the moisture limited, but think there will be 3-6 hr window
where snow showers could bring a dusting to possibly as much as
3 inches over the higher ridges of western Greenbrier Valley
tonight. Could see a dusting to an inch as far south as
Bluefield/Princeton, but with the wind, and cold air, this dry
snow will be blowing around a lot.

For those heading out shopping early Friday, wind chills are
going to drop as low as the single digits above zero to 10 in
the mountains, except below zero at elevations above 4000ft. The
Piedmont will experience wind chills in the teens. Actual lows
will range from the lower to mid 20s over most of the area, with
some teens in the mountains.

Any snow showers/flurries will exit around noon, with sunshine
for most, and winds also weakening later in the afternoon. Still
anticipating highs running 15 to 20 degrees below normal, but
not quite record breaking. The Piedmont with more sunshine
earlier will reach the lower to mid 40s, while the mountains
stay around or below freezing.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Wintry mix of precipitation expected Sunday morning, before
transitioning to rain for most. Post-Thanksgiving travelers,
use caution on the roads.

2. Below normal temperatures through the weekend.

The 500mb trough will begin to flatten Friday night into Saturday
morning, with surface high pressure becoming more centered overhead,
thus winds will be lessening throughout the overnight. With calmer
winds and mostly clear skies, will see low temperatures plummet into
the teens in the west, to a few areas of low 20s in the VA and NC
Piedmont. Saturday will be slightly warmer, and mostly sunny, before
clouds start to fill in Saturday afternoon and evening from the
west. A frontal system is progged to track from the central US into
the Great Lakes region by Sunday, and drag a cold front into the
Appalachians through the day. With temperatures cold enough at
the surface and aloft at the onset, will initially see a mix of
snow and freezing rain, a general wintry mix, before
transitioning to rain, as the warm front lifts north through the
area, and gradually warms the atmospheric column to above
freezing. This unfortunately comes on one of the busiest travel
days of the year, so travelers are encouraged to monitor the
forecast and road conditions, even though the greatest impacts
from this system will be much farther north.

Precipitation looks to continue through Sunday night, tapering off
through the overnight. With another cold airmass arriving behind the
front, could see some snow mix in with the rain as the front is
departing the area, until the moisture moves out of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Stronger system to arrive Tuesday, with more potential for a
wintry mix of precipitation.

2. Dry weather with warmer temperatures after midweek.

An area of low pressure develops along a cold front draped along the
southern US early in the work week, and moves along the front into
the Carolinas and offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will
be situated over the local area for Monday, though more centered
over the northeastern US, with the airmass originating in southern
Canada, so keeping temperatures colder than normal for the day. The
low will draw moisture up into the area from the Gulf, increasing
chances of precipitation as early as Monday night. The relative
strength of the surface high and its cold air, versus the
arrival of the moisture will influence what precipitation types
the area will see. Still plenty of uncertainty, as
deterministic models have been varying in the placement of the
high pressure as well as the track of the low along the cold
front. At this time, the most likely scenario looks to be a
period of freezing rain with the arrival of the precipitation
for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, closer to the colder
air, and so better potential for the surface and near- surface
air to be around freezing. The Alleghany Highlands and part of
SE WV may also see some snow mix in. Farther east, into the
Foothills and Piedmont, rain is more likely, due to the warmer
temperatures out that way. Given this is still several days out,
confidence remains low, and could change in future forecast
updates.

Once the precipitation moves out of the area, may see a bit of snow
in the far western mountains as cold air filters back into the
region. High pressure builds back in from the west, and drier
weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures start
to trend warmer for the middle of the week, to only 3 to 7 degrees
or so below normal, highs warming from the mid 30s in the west and
upper 40s in the east, to low 40s in the west and low 50s in the
east. Monday and Tuesday will still be over 10 degrees colder than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Thursday...

West-northwest winds will stay gusty for most of the period,
especially from ROA/BCB west, generally in the 20-25kt range but
some gusts over 30kt possible Friday morning.

Will see a mid deck moving across this afternoon, then a
disturbance brings sub-VFR cigs to the mountains tonight at
BLF/LWB with snow showers. At the moment will keep cigs MVFR and
vsbys VFR, but cannot rule out brief instances of sub-VFR vsbys
in any snow showers.

Should see cigs lift and scatter out between 12-18z Friday.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

High pressure to provide better aviation weather Friday night
into Saturday before another front arrives Sat night into Sunday
with a wintry mix to rain event and sub-VFR becoming likely. A
reprieve possibly Monday before another low brings wintry mix to
rain Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SH/WP