Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
780 FXUS61 KRNK 010623 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 223 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds will persist into Saturday morning but quiet down by Sunday. There is a chance of rain Sunday morning for the western mountainous counties before clear and benign weather returns next weak due to higher surface pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Chilly Saturday morning with residual wind gusts. 2) Small chance of precipitation for far western counties on Sunday morning. Early morning temperatures on Saturday (today) will be a little chilly due to residual wind gusts. These wind gusts will likely be between 10-20 mph with stronger winds at higher elevations. This will result in freezing wind chill values along and west of the Blue Ridge with some values as low as the mid-20s. Conditions will remain dry Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s. A mid-level trough will begin to make its way toward the Mid- Atlantic. Some vorticity from it will provide a small (no more than 30% chance) of rain for the far western and mountainous counties. The light rain may produce no more than a trace. Otherwise, cloud cover is expected to expand Saturday night into Sunday morning as the mid-level low gets closer to our area. Confidence in this forecast is high. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) A few showers possible Sunday and Monday, but amounts will be very light. 2) Otherwise dry weather prevails with seasonable temperatures. By Sunday morning, a cutoff low will have drifted towards the TN Valley and the Deep South, introducing overcast skies and keeping temperatures relatively cool. This system drifts farther towards south Georgia and northern FL through Monday, before pushing offshore and moving due east by Tuesday. An inverted surface trough develops along the Mid Atlantic coast during this time, but our area remains under the influence of surface high pressure off and on, limiting showers. Most moisture associated with this system will stay south of our region. PWATs will improve from the current quarter inch to about a half inch or so Sunday, with a relative minimum of moisture along and west of the Blue Ridge. Farther east over Southside VA and the Piedmont, PWATs gradually increase above thrre-quarters of an inch. Easterly flow and closer proximity to the surface trough will support a few showers, but a very weak atmospheric river and WNW winds will keep QPF amounts low. Ceilings should begin to clear from west to east Monday and Monday night, with slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday that will be very close to normal for this time of year. Confidence in the above weather scenario is high. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) The extended period looks benign with only a couple low chances for rain. 2) Temperatures remain seasonable. Long term ENS and GEFS anomalies indicate a mostly run of the mill weather setup for the long term. Overall, the mid to upper level flow will be near zonal, punctuated by a couple weak weather systems. Late Wednesday night into Thursday a dry front will cross the area, with the parent low to the north. A sprinkle is possible for the Greenbrier Valley, but mostly we will just see some increased mountain cloud cover. Also WNW winds become gusty behind the front, especially for the mountains, but gusts look to stay in the 25 to 35 mph range, below wind advisory criteria. A stronger system develops for Friday night into Saturday, and could bring more widespread rain to the area. However, have kept PoPs in the chance or lower category, as the forcing will again be to our north, and models are hinting much of the rain could break up crossing the Blue Ridge. So again not expecting much rain. Temperatures remain in the 50s and 60s for highs, and the 30s and 40s for lows, or pretty close to normal. Confidence in the long term is high. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM ET Saturday... VFR conditions for the next 24 hours for all terminals. Winds will be a little gusty (10-20 mph) into Saturday morning but will become calm towards Sunday night. Only real notable difference in weather is an increase in cloud cover as a upper level low pressure system gets closer to the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence in this forecast is high. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... There is a small chance of precipitation Sunday morning (06Z-12Z) for the more western parts of the area which may bring sub-VFR conditions temporarily to KBLF and KLWB. Once a mid-level low pressure system moves east of us, conditions remain quiet for all terminals for the foreseeable future thanks to surface high pressure systems. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CG NEAR TERM...CG SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM...SH AVIATION...CG