742
FXUS61 KRNK 100815
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
315 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air has swept over the region. A cold front is now well
east of the forecast area. In its wake, expect blustery
northwest winds and below normal temperatures. Winter weather
advisories for accumulating snow have been issued from the
mountains of North Carolina, northward into the mountains of far
western Virginia and West Virginia. Winter storm warnings have
been issued for some of the highest elevations where snowfall
through tonight could total 3 to 8 inches. Snow flurries may
drift across the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Upslope Snow: Accumulating snow is likely along the western
facing slopes of the mountains near the Appalachian Divide,
particularly the higher elevations. Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories are in effect for these areas.

2) Strong Winds: Sustained northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with
gusts of 30 to 40+ mph expected, especially along the ridgetops.

3) Low Wind Chills: Wind chills falling into the single digits
and teens expected tonight.

A dramatic and unseasonable pattern change is complete across
the forecast area as a potent Arctic airmass, associated with a
strong polar cold front, has swept through the region.

At the surface, the primary cold front is now well east of the
area. A strong high-pressure system (1030+ mb) is building
eastward from the central Plains, clockwise winds around the
high driving the Arctic airmass and establishing a tight
pressure gradient across the Appalachians. This tight gradient
is responsible for the strong gusty winds.

Aloft, the region is firmly under the influence of a deep
longwave trough digging into the eastern CONUS. Within this
trough, a sharpening shortwave and an associated upper-level low
are diving southeastward from the Great Lakes. This upper-level
low is progged to track across the forecast area late in the
day and into tonight. This feature will provide a period of
large-scale ascent (lift) and steepen mid-level lapse rates,
enhancing instability for widespread upslope snow showers with
potential to drive some of this activity over the mountains and
into the piedmont this evening and early tonight. Have
introduced a chance for snow showers for our piedmont counties
late this evening to account for this potential...with a dusting
on grassy surfaces a possibility overnight.

The forecast in general, has not changed for the mountains
where snow amounts for our western most counties (wrn Greenbrier
in WV to the NC/TN border counties) will range from 1-3 inches
in the valleys to 3-8 inches in the highest elevations. Point
forecasts for Beech Mtn NC, Mt Rogers VA, and ridgetops above
3500 feet in western Greenbrier WV, could easily see upwards of
a half foot of snow by daybreak Tuesday. Snow to liquid ratios
for tonight are quite impressive, 20:1, this ratio being driven
by some of the coldest air of the season to pass over the
region.

Temperatures tonight will be bitterly cold by mid-November
standards. Looking at lows in the lower to mid 20s for the
valleys and teens for the mountains. Account for the wind, and
wind chills will be in the single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Snow showers ending in WV midday Tuesday, quiet weather
elsewhere through the period.

2) Cold temperatures Tuesday return to normal for the midweek.

The deep upper-level trough over the Eastern CONUS will begin to
move east and out of our area Tuesday morning. Winds will remain
strong west of the Blue Ridge, from the west at 15-25 mph with gusts
of 30-40 mph. These winds will cause a brutally cold start to the
day, with temperatures in the teens/20s. Wind chill values will be
in the single digits west of the Blue Ridge, with the higher
elevations near zero. The Piedmont will have wind chills in the
teens. Winds slowly reduce through the day but gusts over 20 mph
will persist. Any lingering upslope snow showers will begin to fade
mid-morning, with a few hanging on in Western Greenbrier County in
WV until early afternoon. Surface high pressure then builds into the
area from the south, with dry and quiet weather expected for the
rest of Tuesday into Wednesday.

A shortwave upper trough will move through the area late Wednesday,
but no rainfall is expected as moisture will be limited and most of
the vorticity energy remains off to our north. However, winds will
again elevate due to a pressure gradient between a low pressure over
the Great Lakes and a high over the Southeastern US. Southwest winds
in the morning will advect warmer air into the area, but shift to
the west by afternoon at around 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30+ mph.
A dry cold front then swiftly moves through the area Wednesday
evening, which will again shift winds to a more northwesterly
direction, but this time, dry air aloft will keep any upslope
precipitation from occurring. The high to our south weakens and a
new surface high forms across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday and
builds into the area. The high will keep dry and quiet weather in
place through the end of the period.

Temperatures will be well below normal for Tuesday, with highs in
the 30s/40s, with 20s for the highest elevations. For
Wednesday/Thursday, WAA from southwesterly flow will allow
temperatures to quickly rise back to around normal, with highs in
the 50s to low 60s. Upper 40s will remain in the higher elevations.
Overnight lows stay consistent, in the 20s/30s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Mostly quiet weather expected until the next system moves in
late Sunday.

2) Slightly above normal temperatures each day.

Surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern US will
continue to dominate the weather pattern. At the upper-level, high
pressure will also ridge into the area, keeping mild and quiet
conditions across the area for the late week into the weekend. Due
to this, for the first time in around a week, winds will be light
area-wide. Dry weather is expected to continue for Thursday night
and Friday. Friday night into Saturday, a warm front will approach
the western mountains in West Virginia, which could instigate a few
rain showers, but confidence is currently low in this. Any rain
would be short-lived overnight with dry weather persisting elsewhere
across the forecast area through late Sunday when the next system
arrives. A low pressure system in association with a deep upper-
level trough is expected to develop in the Southern Plains over the
weekend and begin to move east along a cold front. Models currently
are indicating this could be a widespread rainfall event for Sunday
night into early next week, but much could change between now and
then. Nonetheless, Sunday night will be the next best chance of rain
for the entire area.

Temperatures will remain quite consistent due to the high pressure
overhead. Highs will be slightly above normal, in the 50s/60s each
day. Lows will be chilly Friday morning, in the 20s/30s, but
moderate into the weekend with lows mainly in the upper 30s to low
40s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

A potent arctic airmass is now entrenched over the region in the
wake of a polar cold front. A deep upper level trough and an
associated upper-level low diving southeast from the Great Lakes
will dominate the pattern through early Tuesday. This setup
creates a classic, and strong, northwest flow event with a sharp
delineation in flight conditions across the mountains. Details:

Turbulence: Widespread mechanical turbulence for all terminals,
especially near and just downstream (east) of the ridgetops due
to strong gusty northwest winds running perpendicular to the
mountain ridges. Expect moderate to locally severe turbulence,
particularly at ridgetop levels.

Icing: Moderate rime icing in-cloud for mountain terminals BLF
and LWB with little or no icing hazard expected east of
mountains.

Flight Conditions: Persistent IFR and local LIFR vcnty of BLF
due to upslope snow showers along the western slopes of the
Appalachians...vsbys 1-3sm in SHSN persisting through tonight.
VFR favored east of the mountains with vsbys mainly P6SM. There
is a chance for brief SHSN this evening with vsby reduction
between 00Z-06Z vcnty of ROA/LYH/DAN.

Sustained Winds: Sustained NW surface winds of 10-20kts with
gusts of 25 to 35kts likely for all terminals today. Stronger
gusts of 40-45 kts are possible near ridgetops and through the
mountain gaps.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind gusts will persist through Wednesday and reach up to 25-35
kts at times. Wintry weather is likely for the mountains
through early Tuesday then improving for the middle of the week.
By Thursday, higher pressure moves overhead promoting clear
skies and light winds. Above seasonal temperatures return for
the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the latter half of
next week.

After the big cool down Today and Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work
week. This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a
westerly, eventually northwesterly, wind which will frequently
have daytime gusts close to 20 to 30 mph in the mountains and 15
mph to 20 mph across the Piedmont. Friday will be the day with
the weakest winds. Lowering daily minimum RH values, and
subsidence in the east, thanks to the wind orientation, will
help for drying of fuels. These same fuels are the ones which
received generally less then one-quarter of an inch Friday
night, and less than one-tenth of an inch last night. For
tonight into Monday are expecting little to no precipitation. We
are still too early for high confidence in an enhanced fire
danger scenario, but with little to no additional precipitation
after last night`s minimal amounts, its potential continues to
increase, and we will continue monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ007-009-
     010-015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ042-043.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...DS