741
FXUS61 KRNK 050110
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
910 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and seasonal weather over the
region through the weekend. Next week the high moves offshore
while a front approaches from the west. Temperatures will warm
ahead of the front with above normal readings expected Monday
and Tuesday. The front is expected to bring showers to the
region Wednesday, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Saturday...

No major changes were made to the forecast this evening. Fog
throughout the river valleys is expected again tonight and into
the early morning hours Sunday as the large scale weather
pattern has remained largely unchanged from the previous two
days. Any fog and low clouds that develop should lift rather
quickly during the morning hours on Sunday as dry air aloft
starts to mix down with surface heating.


Previous Discussion:

Key Message: Dry and seasonable weather.

High pressure remains in control. Basically looking at fair
weather with lows tonight in 40s and highs on Sunday in the 70s.
Expect fog formation again tonight, mainly within the New,
Greenbrier, and upper James River basins.

In this weather pattern, persistence is the best forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

 - The transition from the weekend to the new week will be slow,
keeping the weather generally pleasant and notably warm.

From Sunday night into Monday, the parent high-pressure system will
drift further out to sea, gradually positioning itself over the
Atlantic. However, its influence will be a lasting one, as it will
continue to keep the airmass over the region dry through Monday
night. As the high pressure pulls away, the surface wind flow will
eventually become southerly. This southerly wind will begin to draw
moisture northward, primarily affecting the mountains, but this
moisture increase should only result in increasing clouds, not
precipitation. Thanks to this southerly flow and the lingering dry
air, temperatures will be significantly warmer than normal, running
5F to 8F above average. High temperatures will generally be in the
70s, with the Piedmont area having the best chance to warm up to
80F.

A significant cold front will begin its descent, pushing into the
Ohio Valley Tuesday. Ahead of this front, atmospheric moisture and
instability will increase, creating the potential for pre-frontal
showers across the mountains late in the day. However, the airmass
over the foothills and Piedmont will remain largely dry and warm for
most of the day. High temperatures will reflect the lingering
warmth, with a noticeable gradient across the region: highs will
range from the mid to upper 70s across the mountains, while
locations east of the Blue Ridge can expect to see temperatures
climb into the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

 - The prevailing warm and stable weather will give way to a
significant change midweek as a frontal system moves through.

On Wednesday, a cold front, driven by an upper-level positive-tilted
trough, will push across Southwest Virginia, Northwest North
Carolina, and Southeast West Virginia. This system will bring
widespread showers to the region. The positive tilt suggests the
system will be somewhat less vigorous, and indeed, the front will
encounter enough dry air to limit total precipitation. Rainfall
should generally total around a quarter of an inch, though localized
isolated thunderstorms could produce higher, spotty amounts.

The fronts slow progress will lead to it stalling over the
Carolinas from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, the
change in airmass behind the front will be noticeable starting
Thursday. A dry high-pressure system will quickly build into the
area, setting up a stretch of notably cool weather. High
temperatures will drop to cooler-than-normal levels, ranging across
the 60s on both Thursday and Friday under mostly sunny skies.

Looking ahead to Saturday, the high pressure will begin to moderate,
allowing temperatures to rebound a few degrees, though conditions
are expected to remain dry and pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Saturday...

Conditions look to remain mostly VFR through the period, with
the exception of BCB and LWB where river valley fog will likely
lead to IFR and LIFR restrictions developing overnight and
towards the early morning hours. This has been persistent over
the last couple of nights, and given the same weather pattern
expected through tomorrow, it is very likely to develop again at
both terminals. Winds overnight look to remain calm, but should
pick up out of the southeast at around 5 knots or less during
the afternoon hours on Sunday for all terminals.


Forecast confidence = high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Fair weather expected through into early next week. In general,
expecting VFR. Only exception will be late night and early
morning river fog vcnty of LWB/BCB.

The next best chance of precipitation will be the middle of
next week when a cold front crosses the region on Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/PM