508
FXUS61 KRNK 220529
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1229 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers linger through midday Saturday in the wake of a warm
front. High pressure builds back in through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week, keeping the weather quiet.
Another larger system moves through the area during the middle
of next week, with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and
beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 830 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Intermittent rain through tonight with gradually drying
conditions on Saturday.

2) Warm, above normal temperatures.

Another round of showers has moved into the area, as the surface
low associated with today`s front passes through. Expect patchy
showers across southwestern VA and eastern WV through the night
and into Saturday morning. The abundant moisture is also
encouraging fog formation, with some fog being reported in the
foothills of NC and further south. No major changes required
with the evening update to the forecast though.

From the previous discussion...

A warm front continues to lift north through the region this
afternoon. This front should continue to lift north through
tonight and will become situated across the MD/VA border. Rain
showers to continue throughout the remainder of today, with
perhaps a slight uptick in coverage overnight as surface low
pressure tracks along the frontal boundary. Better dynamics move
to our north, so heavier rain should also remain north. However,
a few heavier downpours still possible during the overnight.

Have lowered afternoon highs several degrees as it appears that
clouds are not clearing and with lack of solar heating...especially
this time of year...given the sun angle, highs this afternoon
look unlikely to reach the mid or upper 60s. Tonight, very mild
temperatures in the 50s.

Conditions should gradually improve on Saturday. The morning
hours could still feature some passing showers, along with
cloudy skies, but should begin to see breaks in cloud cover by
the afternoon, resulting in a very warm above normal
temperatures. Low to mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge and mid to
upper 60s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Friday...

Key Message: Dry post-frontal conditions for the rest of the
weekend and Monday.

We`ll see a transition to a dry and pleasant ridge dominated regime
as high pressure quickly builds in on the heels of a departing front
later Saturday. A weak upper disturbance behind the main front may
allow for some lingering cloud coverage Saturday night though it is
more moisture starved in subsident flow so not expecting any precip
with the feature. Mostly clear skies and above normal temps are on
tap for Sunday with generally highs reaching the low to mid 60s in
the Piedmont and mid to upper 50s for the mountains. Monday should
be mostly to partly cloudy with temps moderating even a bit warmer
under the dome of high pressure though this quickly advects eastward
ahead of the next trough to the west by late Monday night as precip
chances start to edge eastward into the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Friday...

Key Message: Rain chances return with the next frontal system
for midweek.

Upper longwave trough is progged to track NEWD across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valleys by Tuesday leaving an elongated moisture axis
and front draped southward across the region, which will provide the
next chance for rain. Most of the energy and dynamics look to stay
confined north of the area so precip should mainly result as periods
of light to moderate rain and nothing heavy or much organized
is expected. Guidance varies in the evolution of this feature
with the timing of eastward progression, though it is possible
it could stall into Wednesday so have lingering chances of pops
but the greatest chance looks to be mainly Tuesday and Tuesday
night. If it does stall, then persistent SW fetch may allow for
some weak instability to nose into parts of the Piedmont so
cannot rule out a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Saturday...

Keeping a more pessimistic forecast per moisture-laden airmass
with showers in place ahead of a front this morning. Despite
some areas being VFR, think majority of the time, cigs and at
times vsbys will be sub-VFR, and as low as IFR especially in the
mountains and at DAN. During the day the front moves across but
cigs may have a hard time improving at BLF/LWB and maybe BCB,
but should see VFR east of the mountains though models keep some
cloudiness around, so beyond 15z, confidence in the ceilings and
bkn/sct is lower in the Piedmont.

Indications are that lower cigs will return after sunset.

West winds behind the front may gust 15-20kts at BCB/BLF/LWB
today.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Higher confidence Sunday into Monday of VFR, then next system
arrives Tue-Wed with rain chances and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/VFJ
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ/WP