024
FXUS61 KRNK 251900
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
200 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers to continue into Wednesday as a result of an
approaching front. A strong cold front moves across the region
Wednesday night and much colder air will arrive for Thanksgiving
Day. Cool and dry conditions remain in place through Saturday.
Rain chances return by Sunday as another low pressure system
approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain through this afternoon and evening. More intermittent
showers through the overnight.

2) Clearing conditions on Wednesday with a strong cold front
passage.

First frontal boundary remains well to the west across western
TN and KY, with a stronger secondary front currently over the
Central Plains. Ahead of the front, warm air advection has
resulted in ongoing rain showers across the area, which are
expected to continue into the overnight hours. Rain will come in
waves and a steady falling rain looks unlikely...rain looks to
be more showery. Any thunder seems unlikely as well, with most
convection staying well to the south over Georgia and Alabama.
Rainfall amounts have been lowered from previous forecasts, with
amounts generally 0.50" or less through Wednesday morning.

A much stronger front will pass across the region on Wednesday
afternoon/evening. This will bring a much colder airmass into
the region. Still expecting strong warm air advection ahead of
this front, thus afternoon highs east of the mountains are
likely to reach into the 60s and low 70s. Not much moisture
associated with the frontal passage, but a few showers cannot be
ruled out. Overall, looks to be a dry frontal passage.
Temperatures quickly drop after sunset and winds will become
increasingly gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Windy and turning colder into Thanksgiving.


During this period, expect a change to winter, just in time for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping. A deep trough will set
up across the east during this time. A strong low level jet
coupled with robust cold advection will lead to some winds
gusting over 30-35 mph Wed evening into Thursday. Ensembles
suggest probabilities of 75-100 percent of wind advisory levels
in the High Country of NC and the higher ridges of SE WV/SW VA
Wed evening. Will await more model data this evening but a wind
advisory looks like it will be needed for those areas for Wed
night into Thanksgiving morning.

Airmass will be very dry, though upslope clouds with some
vorticity lobes could bring some snowflakes to the WV mountains
northwest of Lewisburg Wed night, but not anticipating any
accumulations.

Temperatures will drop into the 20s Wed night with lower 30s
east, but only rise to the mid 30s to near 40 in the mountains
Thanksgiving, with 40s east. Cold air persists with lows in the
teens Friday night as winds relax under high pressure. Those
heading out early Friday morning will be greeted by temperatures
in the 20s, wind chills in the single digits in the mountains
and teens in the Piedmont.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Brief period of a mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain
possible Saturday night.

2. Trending warmer through the period, but still several degrees
below normal.

Surface high pressure will remain overhead through at least
Saturday, and the deep trough established over the eastern US starts
to flatten out. A low pressure system develops over the central
US and tracks northeastward towards the Ohio Valley region by
Sunday. The weekend will start mostly sunny, though cloud cover
will increase with increasing moisture late Saturday, ahead of
the next approaching system. With below normal temperatures
still over the region, so could see a few hours of a mix of
wintry precipitation Sunday morning, with the approach of the
cold front, before precipitation changes to mainly rain.
Forecast soundings show a decent layer of dry air from the
surface to the mid levels, so any precipitation will need to
overcome the dry layer before reaching the ground, so may not
begin until after sunrise. This may impact any post-
Thanksgiving travel plans, so travelers are encouraged to keep
an eye on the forecast over the weekend.

A brief period of dry conditions comes during the beginning of the
work week, before the next system reaches the area, approaching more
from the south, with precipitation reaching the southern Blue Ridge
initially, then spreading to the rest of the forecast area.
Could see periods of freezing rain as temperatures hover around
the freezing mark Monday night/Tuesday morning, and again
Tuesday night. Some uncertainty exists in the timing of this
system, which will influence the precipitation types expected.

Saturday looks to be the coldest day of the period, as high
temperatures stay in the low to mid 40s in the east, and upper 30s
to low 40s in the west, and lows in the 20s areawide Saturday
night/Sunday morning. Temperatures start to trend warmer after that,
with increasing southerly flow, highs rising into the lows 40s to
low 50s and lows in the 30s. Though trending warmer, these
temperatures are still below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Tuesday...

Mixed flight categories this afternoon, but most sub-VFR still
remaining across the mountains. Intermittent rainfall expected
through at least daybreak Wednesday, thus have kept mention of
-RA or -SHRA for all TAF locations. Low cigs the biggest concern
 overnight, where most terminals will drop below VFR for a
 period of time. Gradual improvements on Wednesday late in the
 period with terminals slowly returning back to VFR as clouds
 erode through late morning and into early afternoon.

Some wind shear is noted through early Wednesday, as a result of
a strong low level jet overhead.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

High pressure will begin to settle into the region behind the
passing front on Wednesday. This will bring a return to VFR
conditions for all TAF sites through Saturday. Another system
could potentially bring sub-VFR back into the region by Sunday.

Northwest winds will become gusty Wednesday night and remain
elevated through Friday. Strongest winds will occur late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG