180
FXUS61 KRNK 160010
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
710 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions, along with a warming trend, expected through
Wednesday. A strong front will approach from the west on
Thursday, resulting in the next chance of precipitation for the
region. A brief cool down behind the front on Friday, followed
by warm and dry conditions into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 707 PM EST Monday...

No notable changes are expected for the ongoing forecast for the
overnight hours. Have made only minor tweaks to better reflect
current conditions and expected trends into the early morning
hours of Tuesday.

As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and sunny, still cold.

2) Warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday.

Very cold morning lows have been slow to warm over the past several
hours. However, full sun today has allowed for temperatures to bump
into the mid 20s in the mountains and mid 30s in the east. Should
have at least another couple hours of warming before temperatures
fall again overnight into the teens and 20s.

Less wind today has eased any wind chill concerns and winds should
remain light overnight, except for the higher elevations across
southeast West Virginia where some enhancement from a quick-moving
shortwave and resultant increased low level jet. With that said,
gusts only into the 20 MPH range are expected.

Less influence from the trough on Tuesday as it exits further east
into the Atlantic and heights begin to rise over the eastern US.
This will result in warming temperatures into the mid to low 40s by
the afternoon. Sunny skies expected again, with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Significant warm-up for mid-week before a cold front arrives
Thursday.

2) Dry conditions expected until showers arrive with the
front.

A notable warming trend is forecast for mid-week, driven by a shift
in the upper-level flow. As the pattern becomes more zonal and the
surface high tracks offshore, southwest winds will favor warm air-
advection, temperatures trending above-normal. High temperatures
both Wednesday and Thursday in the 50s.

In general expecting dry conditions until the arrival of a cold
front Thursday.  Showers are anticipated along the front...spreading
from west to east across the forecast area Thursday afternoon and
evening. Post-frontal cold air intrusion will follow swiftly
Thursday night. In the mountains, this temperature drop, combined
with increasing gusty winds, is expected to transition any
lingering precipitation to snow showers or flurries early Friday
morning. Attm...QPF looks to be on the order of 0.25 to 0.50...
falling mostly as rain. Confidence is low for any snow
accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Chilly and Windy Friday.

2) Temperatures rebound Saturday.

3) Chance of showers Sunday.

The workweek closes with a brisk, post-frontal pattern. A gusty
northwest wind will be notable Friday morning as a cold front clears
the East Coast. While clouds and scattered flurries may linger
briefly across the mountains Friday morning, they should dissipate
by afternoon as high pressure builds across the forecast area.
Temperatures will be noticeably colder...about 5 degrees cooler
than the seasonal norm.

The high should provide for dry conditions going into the weekend
with model consensus for a weak front to cross the forecast area
Sunday.  Attm it appears the best chance for showers associated
with Sunday`s front will be west of the Blue Ridge with activity
drying up as it crosses the mountains.

Temperatures are forecast to rebound this weekend with highs back in
the 50s. No hazardous weather is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 613 PM EST Monday...

VFR expected throughout the entire 24 hour TAF period.

Low level wind shear is expected during the overnight across
parts of the mountains as a strong westerly low level jet
increases across the region, with surface wind speeds trending
lighter. This will be reflected at KBLF and KBCB for roughly a
three to six hour window. Once the jet passes, sustained surface
winds at KBLF are likely to be in the 7 to 10 kt range through
the night and into Tuesday.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.

.EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK...

VFR expected through Wednesday. Rain chances increase areawide
Thursday which could bring sub- VFR cigs/vsbys, with rain/snow
showers Thu night. Drier Friday with VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...BMG/DS