361
FXUS61 KRNK 020031
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wintry mix will arrive late tonight and continue into Tuesday
morning. Wintry mix will turn to all rain by late Tuesday
morning. Dry high pressure settles into the region for most of
the week. Another potential disturbance on Friday could bring
light frozen precipitation to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Monday...

Overall no large changes to the forecast this evening. Low
pressure continues to strengthen across the deep south and
moisture has already begun to push into Tennessee and Georgia.
Still looking at an arrival time of around midnight for the far
southwest portions of the CWA, with precipitation spreading
northward quickly thereafter. The 00z evening RAOB still shows
some dry air aloft, and as initial precipitation evaporates into
the dry airmass, should see temperatures briefly cool before
warm air advection wins out over the cold. This may lead to a
sleet mix at the onset across the mountains, but eventually most
locations in the mountains and Foothills see just freezing rain.
Still expecting just a cold rain for Southside Virginia and
north central North Carolina.


As of 130 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Winter Weather Advisory expanded eastward due to Freezing Rain
Hazard.

The main headline difference from the forecast earlier this morning
is the Winter Weather Advisory has expanded a little eastward due to
the potential for more widespread freezing rain. Surface
temperatures flirting around freezing overnight in the VA Piedmont
will increase the likelihood of ice. Between a trace and a tenth of
an inch of ice accumulation is forecast for the added counties.
Elsewhere, the forecast has not changed too much. Freezing rain is
expected to be the dominant precipitation type between midnight and
sunrise on Tuesday. Highest ice accumulations are likely to be
between 0.10-0.20 inches but localized areas could see ice totals of
a quarter inch. Snow will be concentrated along I-64 and but even in
this location most of the area will only see between a trace and
half an inch. Western Greenbrier may see between 1-2" of snow. By
mid-Tuesday morning, most of the precipitation will have
transitioned to rain and the system will out of the region by the
afternoon. Some upslope snow may linger in Western Greenbrier,
thus why they may receive more snowfall amounts. Total rainfall
amounts are dependent on what converts to ice and snow, but
places that only receive rain may have between 0.50-1.00".

Lastly, winds will start off easterly/southeasterly from the wedging
of a surface high pressure system to our northeast but will become
northwesterly as a surface low moves to our east and a surface high
pressure system starts to approach from our west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Mainly dry with colder than normal temps.

Keeping this part of the forecast dry, though a front does push
across Thursday, moisture is limited as it arrives from the
west/northwest. Cloud cover could linger into Wed morning over the
mountains behind departing Tuesday system. Not out of the question
to have some freezing drizzle along those western slopes of WV
Tuesday evening.

Highs will continue to run 5 to 15 degrees below normal while lows
will be just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1217 PM EST Monday

Key Messages:

1) Trend is for less impact from next system Friday into Saturday
but not totally dry.

2) Low confidence for the weekend into Monday forecast but leaning
dry.

Trend in the models/ensembles is to have a stronger northern stream
trough that shunts the southern stream system further south. This in
turn will keep better precip chances over the southeast U.S. Still
some models/ensembles have precip chances into our area, so cannot
discount that. Leaned toward a blend of the models, which still
looks like snow changing to rain scenario Friday, then back to snow
Friday night over portions of the area. Wedge may allow for some
freezing precip as well, but confidence is low on ice, based on
track of the low from the Gulf Coast to off the SC/NC coast. Models
keep this low weak until it gets well east of Virginia. Could see
some deformation zone/upper enhanced precip into Saturday, with
precip mainly changing back to rain, except some mix in the
mountains.

Beyond Saturday, though another quick moving upper system/front
pushes across Sunday with low chance pops.

Confidence remains low on the overall wintry setup this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EST Monday...

VFR at the moment with only some high clouds beginning to stream
in. Conditions are expected to deteriorate through the overnight
with precipitation beginning to reach into the area by
midnight. A brief wintry mix, then transitioning to freezing
rain for many locations through daybreak. All terminals except
DAN can expect a period of freezing rain from midnight to around
8AM. Cigs will also begin to lower through Tuesday morning,
along with pockets of reduced vsby. Widespread IFR/LIFR becoming
likely through at least midday Tuesday. Gradual improvements
east of the mountains by Tuesday afternoon, but low stratus will
persist across the mountains through Tuesday evening, resulting
in sub VFR for BLF/LWB through the TAF period.

Winds increase as the system begins to depart northeast. Gusty
northwest winds in the mountains into the 20kt range by Tuesday
evening.

Low-level wind shear for several hours either side of daybreak
Tuesday, mainly focused along and in the vicinity of the
mountains.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Return to VFR for most by Wednesday-Thursday, though the progression
to become VFR will be slower at BLF. For Friday, another storm
system will approach the lower Mid-Atlantic to bring wintry weather
and degraded flying conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for NCZ001>004-
     018>020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/CG
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...BMG