667
FXUS61 KRNK 162240
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Saturday. A cold
front on Sunday may bring some light rain, but high pressure
will return for early next week. Another cold front could arrive
by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) The Frost Advisory has been expanded to include Summers
County of West Virginia for early Friday morning.

2) Seasonable and dry conditions are expected on Friday.

After coordination with neighboring offices, the Frost Advisory
has been expanded to include Summers County of West Virginia
for early Friday morning. Otherwise, patchy frost is expected
for parts of the mountains, especially in sheltered river
valleys. Temperatures at the ridgetops will be a little higher
and may prevent some frost formation as typically expected
during the autumn season. Winds were increased a little in this
forecast update for the next couple hours, and dewpoints were
dropped given observational trends.

The northwest flow should abate tonight as high pressure crosses
the Appalachian Mountains. With near ideal radiational cooling
conditions expected tonight, temperatures will fall into the
mid 30s to the lower 40s. Some sheltered river valleys such as
Burkes Garden and Lewisburg might even get close to the freezing
mark by Friday morning. The wind will swing around towards the
west-southwest later on Friday as some scattered cirrus clouds
approach from the west. High temperatures should reach the lower
60s to the lower 70s. Dewpoints were also lowered on Friday
afternoon due to the expected dry air mass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Above normal temperatures.
2. Showers Sunday and early Sunday night.
3. Isolated storms in the west Sunday afternoon.
4. Gusty winds Sunday and Sunday night.

For Friday night, a ridge of high pressure is expected to cover
much of far eastern CONUS, centered over our region. Low
pressure will be moving east into western Ontario with an
associated cold front extending south into the Plains States.
For Saturday/Saturday night, the center of the ridge shifts east
into the western Atlantic, off the coast of the Carolinas. The
cold front is expected to head east and be over the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley by the early evening. For Sunday/Sunday
night, the front crosses our region and is expected to be along
the VA coast and eastern NC by the early evening. A ridge of
high pressure builds into the mid- Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valleys in its wake.

For Saturday with high pressure starting the day over the area
then shifting east, we are still expecting a dry day.
Temperatures will be well above normal. Saturday night into
Sunday, a cold front will approach and then cross the region. We
are expecting first an increase in cloud cover Saturday night,
with potentially some isolated to scattered showers across far
western sections after midnight. The front crosses the region on
Sunday with the best chance of showers across the mountains.
The mountains also will be the location where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. Sunday night showers conclude
west to east with drier air quickly returning to the region by
Monday morning. Winds will be on the gusty side immediately in
advance of the front, and behind the front Sunday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday as compared to Saturday,
but still above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Still a bit gusty on Monday but with dry conditions.
2. Isolated to scattered showers in the west on Tuesday.
3. Dry Wednesday and Thursday.
4. Above normal temperatures through the period.

For Monday/Monday night, high pressure shifts east from the
Mississippi Valley to over the SE US. Concurrently, low pressure
develops over MN with an associated cold front trailing south
into TX. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the ensemble solution washes
out a lot of detail that was depicted for Monday`s synoptic
pattern. The solutions offers a trough moving across the Great
Lakes region with nearly zonal flow across our area. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the ensemble solutions continues with
depicting a level of troughiness progressing eastward through
the Great Lakes with a high centered over the mid-Mississippi
Valley. For Thursday, the pattern continues with an upper
low/trough progressing along the US/Canadian border with high
pressure across the south- central and and southeast portions of
the US.

In the wake of Sunday`s cold frontal passage, gusty northwest
winds will continue on Monday, but trend weaker as the day
progresses. Dry weather is expected on Monday with cooler
temperatures as compared to the weekend. A weak cold front will
cross the region on Tuesday, and bring isolated to scattered
showers to mainly western sections of the region. High pressure
quickly returns by Wednesday and Thursday with more dry weather.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will generally
be above average through the period with some fluctuation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Friday, but the
only exception will be temporary patchy fog near LWB during
Friday morning. Otherwise, clear skies and calm winds should
persist overnight as high pressure crosses the Appalachian
Mountains. Winds will remain light during Friday, but some
scattered cirrus clouds could approach from the west.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

With high pressure in control, conditions should remain VFR
through Saturday outside of any morning river valley fog near
LWB. A cold front should arrive by late Sunday to bring the next
chance of showers and possible MVFR ceilings. Winds may become
a little gusty from the northwest after the frontal passage for
Sunday night into Monday, but conditions should return to VFR as
high pressure returns. Another cold front may approach from the
west towards late Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

While confidence on this scenario is still not high, there is
increasing potential for an enhancement in fire danger on Sunday
afternoon, and then again Monday afternoon for portions of the
region. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Sunday.
The southeastern section of our forecast area will have the
lowest potential for receiving measurable rainfall. Winds are
expected to become gusty from the southwest (20 to 25 mph) in
advance of this front on Sunday afternoon, potentially prior to
any measurable rainfall but with minimum RHs in the lower 50s
percent. On Monday, after potentially not receiving a lot of
rain Sunday into Sunday night for this portion of the region,
winds will still be gusty (15 to 20 mph) from the northwest with
minimum RHs around 30 percent.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ020-024.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ043-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW/SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
FIRE WEATHER...DS