022
FXUS63 KSGF 150522
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1122 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures (upper 70s to low 80s) today and
  Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high
  temperatures are in jeopardy today and Saturday.

- 30-40% rain chances on Monday, mainly east of Highway 65.
  Higher rain chances (>50%) then return by the middle to end
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a strong mid level ridge across the central
US with a upper level low off the California coast. Warm air
advection at 850mb continues across the area. While the 12z KSGF
sounding measured a 850mb temp of 13C, the soundings to the
southwest of the area all measured 850mb temps around 20C
(impressive for middle November). The low levels of the
atmosphere continue to moisten across our area as shallow gulf
moisture makes its way north. Other than some scattered cumulus
across far southwest Missouri, the area was mostly sunny which
has boosted temps to very warm levels. Early afternoon temps
were in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area with KVIH
already breaking their record as of 1pm. Surface dewpoints have
also climbed into the upper 50s.

This afternoon through tonight: Temps should top out near
records this afternoon (see climate section below) and then only
slowly fall off this evening and overnight. Southerly winds will
keep the lower trop mixed. These winds combined with higher
dews will keep low temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The
other factor will be the increasing cloud cover overnight which
will also act to keep temps well above average. While there was
some fog this morning, we are not seeing that signal for
tonight given the higher expected winds however can`t rule out
some patchy fog for a few valleys and wind protected areas.

Saturday: Several synoptic features will be occuring during the
day. Shortwave energy will be moving east/southeast through the
northern plains. This will force a dry frontal boundary to drop
south into Kansas and northern Missouri during the day. Ahead of
these features, the 850mb flow will be out of the west, ushering
in the 17-19C 850mb airmass which, as mentioned multiple times,
is near a record for middle November. This would easily lead to
temps a few degrees warmer than today. The limiting factor is
that it appears we will see more cloud cover, especially during
the first half of the day. Any breaks in the clouds or less
clouds would allow for temps to easily push past 80 degrees in
many areas. For now we are going with upper 70s to lower 80s
for highs across the area which will likely tie or break some
more records. The dry front will move through late in the day
however no precipitation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Sunday: The cutoff low will eventually move into California and
the southwest US on Sunday. The front that moved through
Saturday evening looks to bring some drier air in, especially
across the northeast half of the area. There continues to be a
spread in highs with lower 60s across central Missouri and lower
70s across far southwest Missouri. Would expect some additional
changes to these temps as we get closer. No precip is expected
on Sunday.

Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles suggest that the energy out
west with begin to move into the Rockies and Central Plains as a
weaker wave on Monday. Winds will gradually switch to the south
as low pressure develops across Kansas. Therefore a warm front
may try to lift through the area which could cause a sizable
temperature difference across the area, depending on the frontal
location. Highs could either be in the upper 50s or lower 70s
therefore confidence in temps is low. The moisture return is
then the next issue with regards to precip chances Monday night
with the passage of the trough. The latest data continues to
suggest that areas east of Springfield will see the highest
chances of rainfall. While some of the AI and analog output
shows some severe potential (mainly south of the area), latest
instability and shear combos do not seem to overlap at this
time. Northerly winds should occur on Tuesday behind the frontal
passage. There remains a sizable temp spread as well on Tuesday
therefore expect changes to temps as we get closer.

Wednesday and Thursday: While there is still decent ensemble
variance, the overall synoptic pattern favors a strong and
deep trough across the southwest US by the middle of next week.
This would put the area in more of a southwest flow aloft which
in turn would allow for higher moisture to move into the area.
Latest ensemble means suggest PW values over 1 inch which is
near the 90th percentile. The latest ECMWF EFI Shift of Tails
tool suggests the potential for an anomalously high precip
event somewhere in the Oklahoma/Arkansas/Missouri region where
multiple rounds of rainfall occur. Still too early to get into
specifics however this pattern does favor heavy rainfall
wherever that baroclinic zone sets up. Rainfall chances are in
the 50-70% range for next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight and through
the day on Saturday. High level clouds will move across the area
tonight into Saturday morning then will start to clear Saturday
afternoon behind a dry frontal passage. South to southwesterly
winds will occur tonight into early Saturday morning. Winds will
then become north to northwesterly behind the front later
Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 57-60 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

November 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955
KUNO: 81/1955

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Burchfield