920
FXUS63 KSGF 012320
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to heavt snow moving through from the west this
  evening. Main impacts will be with the snow band with 0.5-1.5
  inches of snow possible.

- Precipitation chances rapidly decreasing for Thursday night
  and Friday, but watching for a potentially brief freezing
  drizzle event Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Current
  probability for precipitation is < 15%, but that may need to
  be increased in future updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Ongoing event will wind down by midnight, which is also when the
Winter Weather Advisory will expire.

Isolated to scattered showers of wintry mix are not causing any
known impacts at this point lending to daytime insolation, very
light nature, and limited coverage. The main story for this
evening will be the band of snow currently stretching from
north-central OK to the KC area. This will move east through the
area, lasting for 1-2 hours over any one area. Intensity may
vary between light and moderate at times. As for amounts,
looking for around a half inch or less over the southern CWA and
0.5-1.5 inches over the northern portions. Minor travel impacts
are possible, largely due to the snow falling after sunset with
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s and dropping.

After precip moves out, expect lows around 20 tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The long term is relatively quiet with variable temperatures,
but there are a couple low probability precip events to keep an
eye on.

Wednesday evening into Wednesday night:

Models are starting to hint at a short lived freezing drizzle
potential late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night right
behind a strong cold front. Probabilities are too low (< 15%)
to get into our forecast at this point, but it is worth
watching.

Models have quickly moved away from the Thursday night into
Friday precip event. The forecast still features 10-20% chances
for a wintry mix, but that will probably fall out of the
forecast in future updates if trends continue.

Highs will be in the 40s most days, but in the mid 20s to mid
30s on Thursday. The coldest night will be Wednesday night with
lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits, while
other nights are generally in the 20s.

Otherwise, models also hint at some precip this weekend, but
there is not much agreement and probabilities are < 15%. As
such, nothing was included in the forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A snow band has set up from northeast Oklahoma into central
Missouri and is pushing east into southern Missouri at the
beginning of this TAF period. As moderate to briefly heavy snow
passes through with this band, visibility is expected to be
reduced as low as <1SM at times, especially at the leading edge
of the snow band. Ceilings will reduce to IFR as the band pushes
through and in the immediate aftermath of the snow, improving to
MVFR with ~1500ft cigs around 2-3 hours after snow onset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Camden