875
FXUS63 KSGF 300550
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1150 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds will result in near single digit wind chills
  Sunday morning as colder air moves into the Ozarks.

- A system will bring a 30-50% chance of precipitation Monday
  into Monday night. Models favor snow for precipitation type,
  but a wintry mix of snow, light freezing rain, and/or sleet
  could occur over far southern Missouri. Confidence in
  precipitation amounts is limited, with potential for some
  areas to only see trace amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Behind the system that is exiting the area this evening, look
for temperatures to drop into the low 20s tonight into Sunday
morning. NW winds will gust to 25-35 mph this evening into
tonight, gradually diminishing with time, but will result in
single digit to low teen wind chills into Sunday morning.

Rain is already ending over the far western CWA. The cutoff will
push east this evening, leaving the entire area dry by around
9pm. Precip type should be all rain, but a brief period of
drizzle is possible on the back side (temperatures will still be
above freezing at that time).

For the rest of Sunday, look for gradually decreasing clouds and
highs in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

30-50% chance of light wintry precip Monday into Monday night:

The overall message for this system has not changed since the
previous discussion. Of note is a slight northward shift with
the clipper, more favoring the EAX CWA and northern portions of
our CWA now. Also, the warm nose that could cause some mixed
precip over far southern Missouri has shifted slightly southeast
in the latest NBM run. This resulted in lower (mainly trace)
snowfall amounts along the I-44 corridor, and slightly higher
(still minor) snowfall accumulations across west central to
central Missouri. Also, ptype probabilities shifted slightly
from freezing rain toward light sleet over the far south. Not
confident that these will be persistent trends given limited
predictability with this type of setup, so stay tuned for later
updates. The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index generally
shows 20% or less chance of minor impacts in the CWA, with much
of the I-44 corridor at 5-10% chance, spelling out low risk for
noteworthy impacts from this evening. Highs Monday still look
to be in the low 30s.

Below normal temperatures to prevail:

Main story for the rest of the long term is that temperatures
will bounce around but remain generally below normal. Look for
lows mainly in the upper teens to mid 20s. Highs will bounce
between the 30s Tuesday and Thursday and the 40s Wednesday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Current satellite imagery and surface observations show a
blanket of MVFR cigs at all TAF sites, but with a clearing and
lifting trend that past few hours. Based on satellite trends,
cig conditions should continue to improve through 13Z.
Conditions have a medium high (70-80% chance) of improving to
VFR by 13Z, but some rapid refresh models want to hold onto MVFR
cigs, especially at SGF. Have included a TEMPO for this
potential, though given current satellite trends with clouds
clearing from NW to SE, would lean more towards VFR becoming
prevalent after 13Z.

Otherwise, winds will stay at 10-15 kts out of the northwest
with some gusts up to 20-25 kts through 13Z. Winds are then
expected to shift to northeasterly after 00Z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Price