953
FXUS63 KSGF 261740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with below-average temperatures through at least early
  Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to
  low 30s.

- Widespread precipitation chances (70% to 90%) arrive late
  Friday and persist through the weekend. All rain is favored
  across most of the area, but wet snow may mix in across the
  eastern Ozarks late Friday into early Saturday.

- Below-average temperatures are likely to continue into early
  December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Synoptic analysis shows an upper level low approaching the Great
Lakes region, with the associated surface low dragging a cold
front that pushed east of the forecast area late yesterday
evening. The pressure gradient remains tightened over the area,
which has led to the higher gusts continuing. Observations
overnight have showcased gusts ranging between 20-30mph, with
some localized higher gusts up to 35mph. As the low continues
making its way eastward through the Great Lakes and the trough
continues pushing away from our area, winds will begin to
diminish slowly throughout the day before becoming light once
again later this evening and tonight.

The aforementioned cold front that swept through the area
ushered in a cooler airmass, with observed temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s so far during the early morning hours (as of 2
AM). As the early morning progresses, we`ll see a temperature
drop of a few more degrees, with most locations hovering around
the freezing mark before/around sunrise.

With surface high pressure overspreading the Plains and the
northwesterly flow aloft remaining over the region, sunny skies
will return to the area once again. Despite that, today will be
fairly chilly, with high confidence in afternoon highs
remaining in the low to mid 40s.

The cold will continue through at least the Thanksgiving
holiday, with overnight lows both tonight and Wednesday night
dipping into the 20s and low 30s. Temperatures on Thursday will
be slightly warmer than today, however they`ll still remain in
the mid/upper 40s (most of the area) to low 50s (towards the
MO/AR border).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

As we look towards the holiday weekend, ensembles have
consistently depicted an upper level trough developing over the
western CONUS and digging into the Plains by late week/early
weekend. An associated surface low is progged to develop over
the Plains, with a warm front lifting over our area. This will
bring an end to the dry weather as moisture returns to the area,
with NBM probabilities ranging between 70-90% Friday night
through Saturday.

The big-picture forecast looks fairly on track from previous
forecasts, with continued agreement between models placing much
of our area in the "warm" sector, with temperatures above
freezing and the colder temperatures over northeast Missouri,
Illinois, and Iowa. As such, the most likely ptype scenario
remains: all rain across southwest Missouri/southeast Kansas,
snow favored across northeast Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa, and
a rain/wet snow mixture in between. This would lead to the mixed
ptype potentially over parts of the eastern Ozarks. That being
said, latest NBM probabilities of 24-hour snow >0.1" did
increase from the previous forecast, now showing a 30-60% chance
over the eastern Ozarks. Jumping up to the probability of >1",
NBM shows less than 15% chances.

Despite the greater consistency between ensembles, there remains
uncertainty regarding Sunday, as some guidance suggests wrap-
around precipitation affecting the area. If this were to occur,
more of the area could experience mixed wintry precipitation.
Confidence remains low at this point, so we`ll need to continue
watching trends through the week. Regardless, those traveling
during the holiday weekend should begin preparing now for
potential wintry impacts, and keep an eye on the forecast as we
get closer to this timeframe.

Heading into next week, below- normal temperatures will continue
to be possible, with highs ranging in the 30s for Monday and
into the 40s through midweek. There remains an 8-12 degree
difference between the NBM interquartile spread, so we`ll have
to see how much of the cold air can infiltrate the Ozarks with a
secondary upper level trough progged to push through the CONUS.
We`ll also need to keep an eye on precipitation chances with
this system - as it stands, large uncertainties regarding the
timing and magnitude remain, which would largely influence
precip chances, temperatures, ptypes, etc. We`ll continue to
monitor how models handle this system through the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

For the 18z TAFS, mid and upper level moisture will start to
increase late this afternoon and overnight, but forecast
soundings show fairly dry low levels continuing. We are
expecting VFR ceilings from late this afternoon through around
14z on Thursday with a clear sky thereafter. Some northwest wind
gusts up to 20 kts will be possible this afternoon before
becoming light and variable early this evening as surface high
pressure moves into the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Lindenberg