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FXUS63 KSGF 302005
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
205 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A system will bring 40-80% chances for precipitation Monday
  into Monday night. Very light wintry mix possible roughly
  along and south of I-44 (turning to all snow in the evening),
  with mainly snow north of I-44. Confidence in precipitation
  amounts is limited, with potential for some areas to only see
  trace amounts. Little to no significant impacts expected.

- Precipitation chances trending upward for Thursday night into
  Friday, currently at 30-40%. Model spread is currently still
  too high to put any certainty to forecast precipitation types.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Monday/Monday Night Wintry Precipitation:

Changes This Forecast Update: The area of precipitation
resulting from the southern wave continues to trend farther
south. Moisture is not as deep due to this, so precip type
roughly along and south of I-44 has shifted more toward a wintry
mix while the north is mostly snow as the clipper will bring
deeper moisture there. However, the southern shift also means
less QPF over the mixed precip areas, further reducing the
previous expectation of limited impacts.

Precip Type and Timing: Light isolated to scattered showers are
expected to develop Monday morning into the early afternoon
across much of the area while light snow develops across the
northern portions of the area. How far north the mixed precip
line goes remains in question, but is currently expected through
the generalized I-44 corridor. Want to emphasize that these
showers look very light and isolated in the mixed precip area,
so some areas may not have any measurable precip until the
clipper snowfall moves through later afternoon into the evening.
Where showers do move, expect varying moisture depths to allow
for a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, all of which
will, again, be light with no significant impacts or
accumulations. By later afternoon and evening, the light snow
over the northern CWA will shift southeast through much of the
rest of the area. Snow exits the area around midnight Monday
night. The far southwestern CWA will see the lowest chances for
precip through the evening at around 40%.


Accumulations/Impacts:

Ice: Have a glaze of ice over areas generally south of Highway
60, but that likely will not be realized on roadways given
temperatures right around 32 and daylight timing. Expect little
to no ice/sleet impacts.

Snow: Current forecast calls for accumulations of a trace to 1
inch (greatest over central Missouri, lowest over the far
southwestern CWA), but with some melting and compression, those
amounts would be mostly realized on grassy surfaces with lesser
accumulations possible on roads and other surfaces. As for
snowfall probabilities, > 0.1" probs range from around 30% over
the far southwest (south and west of Joplin) to 50-70% in areas
north and east of a line from approximately Branson to
Springfield to Lamar to Pittsburg, KS. Probs for >= 1" are less
than 50% area-wide. Greatest potential is along and north of
Highway 54 at around 30-40%. Greatest potential for impacts
will be as the snow band shifts southeast in the evening as
temperatures fall toward the mid 20s. Could see some quick, but
still light, road accumulations during the evening commutes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Potential for Precip Thursday night and Friday:

Still looking at a 30-40% chance for wintry preciptiation
Thursday night and Friday, but models are all over the place
with pretty much all aspects of this system so confidence is
very low and details are unclear.

Otherwise, look for variable temperatures through the long term,
with highs bouncing between the mid 30s-mid 40s Tuesday to the
40s Wednesday, then back down into the mid 20s-mid 30s Thursday
and 30s again on Friday. Saturday bounces back to the 40s for
highs. The coldest night in the long term is Wednesday night
with lows in the teens and single digit wind chills across most
of the area.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Expect VFR conditions with light winds to persist into Monday
morning. A light, showery wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain,
and snow is expected to develop Monday morning and afternoon,
but coverage and impacts are expected to remain very limited
until late in the day. By late afternoon or early evening
Monday, coverage of precipitation should increase while becoming
predominantly light snow with MVFR to IFR ceilings becoming
more likely. The snowfall will then end by midnight Monday
night. Snowfall amounts of a half inch or less are in the
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus