010
FXUS63 KSGF 202019
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
219 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There may be some breaks in rain for the rest of today, but
  widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast through this
  afternoon and continue through Friday.

- Expect additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches, with
  some localized higher amounts. Flash flooding may occur with
  embedded areas of heavier rainfall, but widespread flooding
  is not anticipated.

- Increasing chances, 60-80%, for rain to return early next
  week. Exact timing and amounts will continue to fluctuate due
  to some model uncertainty with this next system.

- A potential period of colder than average temperatures are
  becoming more likely for Thanksgiving Day into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A warm front remained across the Ozarks with portions of
central and west central Missouri just on or north of the front
with light northerly winds noted this morning along with Dense
Fog where rain was not falling. South of the front where
moisture was running over the boundary across southern Missouri,
Showers and isolated storms were moving across the region. This
fetch of moisture can be traced all the way to the Pacific off
the Coast of Old Mexico south of the Baja Peninsula.
Additionally, low level flow off the Gulf of America can also
be seen moving towards the region. These atmospheric rivers of
moisture are forecast to continue to feed the system moving
across the Plains allowing for continued shower and storm
potential for the region through tonight and likely into Friday
night.

As a result, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through tonight. Lightning will be possible with all storms
though decreasing during lighter rainfall overnight through
Friday. Winds may shift to briefly northerly behind any outflow
boundaries that pass through from thunderstorms in nearby areas.
Otherwise, winds will generally be light and southeasterly at 6
mph or less during this period, switching to southwesterly at
5-10 mph Friday morning. A cold front will slowly move through
the area on Friday, turning winds more northerly behind the
front.

Ample moisture as noted above will keep the area socked in with
low stratus despite any periods of little to no rainfall. This
will limit the amount of solar radiation that can make it to the
surface and keep temperatures from climbing much out of the
upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Similarly, this will also
keep overnight temperatures in the 50s. With the limited
recovery chances for any embedded storms in the stratus should
be limited, though not zero. If a cell or two can take full
advantage of what instability and lift there is, most likely
along the residual warm frontal boundary, they may be capable of
producing small localized hail.

Some locations, especially those that see little rain may see
additional fog overnight tonight, will need to monitor areas of
central Missouri for continued fog or fog development.

In looking at the models, some of the members bring some drier
air into the region too quickly considering the significant
moisture streaming into the region. Limiting the impacts on the
forecast and leaning slightly more on some of the CAMS, rain is
expected to linger across most of the Ozarks into Friday
evening.

Overall, rainfall amounts remain consistent with previous
forecasts, with all of southwest Missouri and far southeast
Kansas expected to see and additional 0.75in to 1.5 inches of
rain which will send final storm totals around 2-4 inches. The
additional rainfall lead to some localized flooding, especially
considering the amount of leaves and detritus falling recently
which may clog drains. This would be more of a concern in urban
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Surface low pressure is finally expected to move across and
through the Ozarks by Friday evening, with a cold front sliding
behind it along with slow clearing. This may lead to areas of
Dense Fog Friday night with wet ground and cold air advection.

The weather pattern for the weekend behind this system looks
more seasonable and dry. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are
expected for Saturday and into the low to middle 60s on Sunday,
with overnight lows in the 40s through the weekend.

Seasonable highs in the upper 50s will continue into early
next week before cold air begins to move into the central Plains
and the Ozarks towards the Thanksgiving Day Holiday and next
weekend. The next round of rain will come Sunday night through
Monday night as another surface low and associated upper level
trough take a similar track as our current system.

In looking at some of the longer range guidance like the CFSv2
and EFI shift of tails, chances for a period of colder than
average temperatures look increasingly likely. The CFSv2 has a
bullseye of below average temperatures cantered over Missouri
with the EFI indicating good potential for temperatures in the
10th percentile. Current forecast temperatures are in the 40s
for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. These temperatures may not
be cold enough if the longer range guidance is correct though.
Will see how things progress this week, though the CPC and WPC
are both forecasting the potential for colder than normal
temperatures in the Nov 27th to Dec 3rd period. If this is
correct we may feel more like winter as we head into the
climatological December to February winter period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A warm front that pushed into the region, stalled across
central Missouri. Showers and isolated storms will continue to
move over the region through tonight and into Friday. Low IFR to
MVFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through the
forecast with generally light surface winds.

Where storms move over a terminal, visibilities and ceilings
will be impacted.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ073-
     097.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     MOZ055>057-066>069-077-078.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch