231
FXUS63 KSGF 011129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain or sprinkle potential during the current overnight
  into Saturday.

- Freeze potential tonight with lows in the upper 20s to low
  30s. Will upgrade freeze watch to a warning.

- Warming trend starting Sunday with above normal temperatures
  beginning Tuesday and continuing into the 8 to 14 day outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an amplified
ridge axis from California into Saskatchewan with a trough and
closed low digging into Iowa ahead of the ridge axis. A west to
southwest jet streak south of the low of 70 to 80 kts was
pushing across the forecast area with a stronger jet streak west
of the low along the front range of the Rockies. Mid level
frontogenetic forcing was occuring between 850mb and 700 mb and
we`ve been seeing some light rain echoes on radar associated
with this over central MO and another over eastern KS. Lower
levels remain fairly dry as evidenced by the 00z soundings from
TOP/SGF. With mid level ceilings so far, we`re probably seeing
only sprinkles or very light rain so far. The cloud cover was
keeping temperatures warmer in the upper 40s to around 50.

Rest of the overnight into Sunday: The mid level frontogenetic
forcing will shift from northwest to southeast across the area
today and will encounter better moisture during the morning
hours into the early afternoon from near the I-44 corridor into
south central MO and may see up to 0.15" of precipitation there
today. The cloud cover and light rain will keep temperatures in
the low to mid 50s for highs today.

Tonight: High pressure will move overhead tonight with a
clearing sky and light wind with the high pressure providing
ideal conditions for radiational cooling to take place. HREF
probs for temperatures dipping below freezing tonight are
generally >60% for the entire area continuing that trend from
yesterday when we put up the freeze watch. Since confidence
continues to be fairly high for a freeze, we will be upgrading
that watch to a warning which will start around 1 am and go into
Sunday morning. Widespread frost is also expected and should put
an end to the growing season.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Warming trend begins Sunday: The upper level low will shift east
into the TN/OH valley during the day Sunday. The surface high
will shift east and we`ll see a return to southerly winds by
late in the day. Temperatures should rebound back into the mid
50s after a rough start at freezing or below. The pattern begins
to become more zonal on Monday with the main polar jet staying
well to the north. We should start to see pretty good low level
warm advection on Monday night into Tuesday ahead of an
approaching shortwave with some gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph on
Tuesday. This will help temperatures rise into the upper 60s to
low 70s by then. Similar temperatures are expected on Wedneday
and Thursday. Another shortwave will approach on Thursday with a
deeper low level warm and moisture advection ahead of the front
which may bring some showers back to the area for Thursday night
into Friday. The warmer than normal trend looks to continue into
the extended period with ensemble temperature anomalies still
showing 5 to 7 degres above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

For the 12z TAFS, a mid level band of frontogenesis was
producing some light rain across the area. This should sweep
through the forecast area today with the majority of the rain
chances this morning. VFR conditions are expected to remain
predominant, although can`t rule out a brief period of MVFR with
any heavier shower that may develop. Clearing sky should take
place later this evening as high pressure builds in.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg