709
FXUS63 KSGF 062045
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures, cloudy and patchy drizzle on
  Sunday.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal
  temperatures early next week. Average highs for this time
  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather
  accompanies this pattern through at least Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a northwest flow pattern over the
area. A shortwave and associated surface low was located across
Nebraska. A precip shield associated with this system extended
into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Low level clouds have slowly
eroded across the area but do remain across southeast Kansas
into west central Missouri. Temps have reached the 50s east of
Springfield with low 40s in the remaining cloud cover.

Tonight: The surface low looks to move southeast into northern
Missouri. Southerly winds out ahead of the front look to keep
temps above freezing overnight. Increasing lift with the arrival
of the front could cause some sprinkles or light rain showers,
with the highest chances of this north of Springfield. While
increasing winds should keep the fog patchy and greater than
one mile, there is some short term guidance that develops fog
less than one mile across south central Missouri. Confidence
remains low in any dense fog potential overnight.

Sunday: The cold front looks to move through the area in the
morning. An inspection of HREF forecast soundings shows
favorable parameters for drizzle. A lack of cloud ice, saturated
low levels and lift associated with upslope flow over the Ozark
Plateau should create some patchy drizzle during the day. The
freezing line looks to remain along and north of Highway 54
through mid afternoon therefore not expecting any freezing
drizzle at this time. We have nudged temps down using short term
models with high temps likely occuring in the morning with temps
steady or falling through the 30s during the day. By late
afternoon the highest potential for drizzle will be east of
Springfield however temps still look to be above freezing.
There are a few models showing snow showers east of Springfield
in the afternoon however there are concerns about the lack of
cloud ice. The lift does look to decrease by evening with precip
ending around dark. We will continue to monitor trends in the
short term guidance since a faster arrival of cold air would
increase the potential for freezing drizzle. However currently
the potential for freezing drizzle is very low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles suggest that while northwest
flow aloft continues, winds will gradually turn to the
southwest and increase at 850mb which will usher in warmer air.
Surface high pressure will slide through Monday with clear
skies and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Much warmer temps
look to occur on Tuesday as mean 850mb temps rise into the 6-10C
range. Latest NBM supports highs in the middle to upper 50s.
This warmth will also come with increasing surface wind gusts up
to 30mph as a pressure gradient develops over the area.

Wednesday through Friday: Ensembles then suggest that a strong
shortwave will slide north of the region on Wednesday. This
should force a dry front into the area with falling temps again
however the bulk of the colder airmass should remain north and
east of the area. While ensemble variance is high for late week,
there is some signal of another shortwave moving southeast into
northern Missouri Thursday night into Friday which could clip
central Missouri with light precip chances however confidence is
low. NBM data shows large temperature spreads for Friday which
suggests large uncertainty in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Conditions should gradually improve into MVFR and then VFR for
mid to late afternoon as the low stratus slowly erodes.
Confidence is high however that the low stratus and IFR ceilings
will move back into the area overnight and last through Sunday.
There could also be some MVFR visibility in fog however we are
not expecting dense fog like we had this morning. Winds will
switch from the south to the north Sunday morning. There will be
some patchy drizzle at times Sunday however confidence is not
high enough to include at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield