275
FXUS64 KSHV 301128
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
628 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

 - Some increase in cloud cover today shouldn`t keep temperatures
   from climbing well into the 80s and perhaps even the lower 90s
   today.

 - Above normal temperatures will continue well into the first
   week of October.

 - There may be enough moisture by Thursday of this week to
   introduce widely scattered thunderstorm chances across our
   eastern half and again early next week across our southern
   sections.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Too warm for late September as afternoon high temperatures on
Monday ranged from near 90 to the lower 90s pretty much areawide.
Dewpoints took a noticeable jump on Monday as well which meant a
little more in the way of afternoon relative humidity which made
it feel even warmer. Look for this trend to continue through at
least the remainder of the week and even into the weekend
unfortunately.

The players in this very stagnant weather pattern remain mostly
unchanged. Upper level ridging continues to dominate across our
region with that ridge shifting eastward today as an inverted
upper trough cuts the ridge off...or helping to relocate it
across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough across the
Southeast CONUS will begin elongating or try to retrograde slowly
westward by the middle and end of this week. There may be enough
heating and deep layer moisture in place to initiate diurnally
driven convection, mainly across our eastern half Thursday
Afternoon. While our weather grids do not support this trend
continuing into the weekend, would not be surprised if we see very
similar conditions during the afternoons on Friday and through
the upcoming weekend as well as the proximity of the upper trough
to our region would support such a scenario.

By early next week, upper ridging takes over once again and
appears to be firmly anchored across our region. NBM is hinting at
isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven convection across
our southern most zones. Assuming enough moisture is available,
daytime heating could be enough to support such convection even in
the absence of any upper level forcing.

Otherwise, enjoy the much above normal temperatures as we move
into the first week plus of October with no cooler air on the
horizon unfortunately.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

For the 30/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail
throughout this forecast period. A deck of scattered mid to high
clouds has been moving north and east across Texas airspace into
Oklahoma, arkansas and Louisiana, with no noteworthy impacts
expected, and coverage reflected in prevailing CIG groups. High
cloud coverage looks to continue through much of the daylight
hours, while weather remains quiet throughout. Light and variable
winds will resume their north- northeasterly course, at sustained
speeds of not much more than 5 kts.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  85  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  88  64  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  86  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  88  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26