104
FXUS64 KSHV 170707
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
107 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Cloudy and mild start with patchy fog likely to improve by
   around lunch with a warmer afternoon and gusty S/SW winds.

 - This pattern is going to continue into midweek with little
   change expected as southerly winds warm our dew points.

 - Our much advertised wet end to the work week is still on course
   in similar fashion with 1 to 3 inches and some higher amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Well as expected our weak cold front Sunday did move over S AR
and actually in N LA in the backdoor down to near Shreveport and
Bossier City, Ruston and Bastrop with light E/NE wind. This really
helped to keep the clouds locked in over the boundary with a high
on Sunday of only 80 in Shreveport compared to a record tie of 85
on Saturday. This front is going to be lifting slowly back north
early on Monday with a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm
or two along and north of I-30 around daybreak as a short wave
moves over the plains to our north.

Otherwise, skies will be cloudy areawide with some patchy and
dense fog confined to our southern most Counties and Parishes.
Say from Jacksonville to Center, across Toledo Bend into
Natchitoches and Jena. The clouds and some fog will lift out
before lunchtime with more sunshine and warmer temps again for the
next few afternoons. The big difference is the wind direction
shifting back from E/SE to S/SW today with some mid to late
morning gusts, continuing into the afternoon. This same pattern
will be locked in again for a few days with low to mid 80s for
highs and lows climbing back through the 60s.

The WPC precipitation outlook is maybe a little better than
lastnight, but still not back in the 5 to 7 range for a max. They
have a Marginal risk over our NW corner of the cwa, increasing to
Slight risk for excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. We look
to receive a good inch in the Parishes and some to two to three
totals West of I-49 over E TX. Farther N in NE TX into SE OK/
SW AR along I-30 perhaps some 4 inches with isolated locales. The
GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement swinging the upper low over
the OK/TX Panhandles midnight on early Friday with our heaviest
push utilizing daytime heat in the afternoon and carrying forth
into the evening hours with eyes watching the radar.

So we are still looking forward to a wet end to the week with
some heavy convection ahead of a Pacific cold front arriving early
on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms still lingering over
the weekend along and south of I-20. Farther north will be partly
cloudy, but temps everywhere will drop back to seasonal. A 1022mb
high will park briefly over the Natural State for a nice end the
weekend, before the secondary Pacific upper low moves over OK/AR
late on Tuesday with another really good bullseye of an inch or
two for what may be a normal amount for our November after all.
There could be some more cold air late in the month after
Thanksgiving. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For the 17/06Z TAFs, MVFR to lower VFR CIGs continue across
northern and western ArkLatex airspace, with little improvement
expected before more widespread cloud cover returns overnight.
Elsewhere, mostly clear skies will give way to increasing clouds
after 17/09Z. Fog development looks likely, and guidance continues
to show VSBYs falling towards daybreak for southern airspace,
with IFR conditions likely at KLFK. Impacts may spread as far
north as the I-20 corridor, but confidence is not high enough to
include in prevailing conditions. Light winds will trend easterly
overnight before becoming southerly again during the day and
picking up to sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with gusts of up to
20 kts possible late in this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  67  84  66 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  82  62  84  63 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  79  64  82  60 /  20  10  10   0
TXK  83  67  82  64 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  79  62  81  62 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  83  68  83  65 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  83  65  84  63 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  84  65  84  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26